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Vegas Money Moves - Week 11



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TNF Teasers roll into Sunday

Thursday's 28-21 victory at home by the Seahawks over the Cardinals in a battle for NFC West supremacy turned out to be one of the most balanced games of the season for Nevada sportsbooks but didn’t necessarily juice out the game as equal two-way action might suggest.

“We broke even and were very lucky because a big customer was on the Cards +3,” said BetMGM VP of trading Jason Scott. “We lost in Nevada but won everywhere else.”

Both sides of the teaser hit Thursday which is going to increase teaser risk for other popular Week 11 favorites laying 7-to 8-points such as the Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5 at Las Vegas) and Minnesota Vikings (-7 vs. Cowboys).

“We were a small winner for the night,” said Westgate SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay. “There was support for the Cardinals all week and it was mostly Seattle action on game day. It was a very balanced game.”

The public has already served notice who they like this week and the sharps have shown their hand as well with a few sides that may surprise.

Onto Sunday's Week 11 Action

The most popular plays across Nevada with the casual bettor have been the Dolphins (-3.5 at Denver), the Patriots (-1.5 at Houston), and the Chiefs in a revenge match in Las Vegas.

The Steelers (-10.5 at Jacksonville) and Packers (+1.5 at Indianapolis) both fall into the public’s second tier of popularity.

Public buying 2020 Miami Squad

Let’s start with the strong>MIami Dolphins (6-3 SU, 7-2 ATS), who come into Denver riding a five-game winning streak, both straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS).

Rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa will be making his fourth straight start and while head coach Brian Flores has put the reins on him in a conservative approach, he’s still making the basic plays and has five touchdown passes and zero picks.

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The Dolphins surge has been everyone else on the team stepping up their game. The special teams are making big plays weekly and the defense is disrupting opposing offenses gameplans.

However, finding the Denver Broncos (3-6 SU, 5-4 ATS) gameplan will be hard for the Dolphins because they don’t have one.

QB Drew Lock has been non-existent in the first-half of the Broncos last two games, both blowouts on the road, with just 3 TDs and 5 INTs.

It’s a downturn after he heard blowback for his celebratory dance moves after the improbable, 31-30, home win against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 8.

Anyway, this is the Broncos first home game since then and while fans are limited, there’s always something to Mile High Magic when the lights come on. It’s real, and it doesn’t matter who the QB is. The Dolphins laying -3.5 at Denver was too much for some sharp guys to swallow and they jumped on the Broncos at the South Point.

Revenge in Vegas?

Andy Reid has always been respected by sharp money coming off a bye and now he’s irritated against the head coach they’re playing this week.

The Kansas City Chiefs (8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS) have only one loss this season and it came at home in Week 5 against the Raiders, 40-32, as 11-point favorites.

It was the Las Vegas Raiders (6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS) at their absolute best in over a decade launching a barrage of bombs for scores that the Chiefs couldn’t keep up with.

Raiders head coach Jon Gruden did a victory lap around Arrowhead Stadium after the game that Reid did not like. The public love the revenge angle, but sharps are wary of taking the Raiders this week because they’ve had 11 players put on the COVID-19 list that have been self-quarantined during the week watching practices from afar.

Those players could still play Sunday, however, the home team is not getting support at the betting windows despite winning and covering their last three games.

Home Underdogs to Road Favorites

The New England Patriots (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS) looked to be a floundering squad but have rebounded from a four-game losing streak to win their last two, the last being the most impressive Sunday night at Baltimore.

It’s what the public saw last and it’s memorable as opposed to the Houston Texans (2-7 SU, 2-7 ATS) who have won against only the Jaguars, twice. The Texans defense allows 409 yards per game, only three teams allow more.

Feeling Green Bay

South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews has all those teams as well but says their top public play this week has been the Green Bay Packers (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS) catching a short number at the Indianapolis Colts (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS).

The Colts come in with the No. 1 defense allowing 290 ypg and the last time the Packers played a top-5 defense they wilted at Tampa Bay, 38-10, after scoring the first 10 points.

The SuperBook has taken sharp money on the Colts pushing from -1 to -1.5, but up north, at Marc Nelson’s Reno Atlantis sportsbook he’s taken sharp money on the Packers.

Notable Moves

Sharp money appears to be united on a few games beginning with the Eagles (+3 -120 at Cleveland). It’s the top sharp play at the South Point, William Hill, Station Casinos, and SuperBook.

Helping the play look better is that NFL sack leader Myles Garrett was put on the COVID-19 list on Friday. He could still play because he doesn’t have it, but he’s worth more than half-point if the defensieve end doesn't play for Cleveland.

The other unified sharp play is the Falcons (3-6 SU, 4-5 ATS) taking +5, +4.5, +4.5, and +4 at New Orleans and the Saints (4-5 ATS) number has settled at -3.5 on Friday.

No QB Drew Brees for a few weeks in the "Big Easy" and he’s worth almost four points to back-ups Taysom Hill or Jameis Winston. But remember that New Orleans has proven to be quite fine without Brees recently as Teddy Bridgewater won all five starts subbing for Brees last season.

The Atlanta Falcons have won and covered three of their last four games evoking memories of their 2019 second-half push.

The Atlantis and SuperBook have both taken respected money on the Chargers (-9.5) against the New York Jets at home.

The Jets (0-9 SU, 2-7 ATS) have lost all nine games but they are coming off perhaps their best effort before the bye, a 30-27 loss to the Patriots at home in Week 9.

The Chargers are only 2-7 but every bettor knows, and respects, what rookie QB Justin Herbert has done so far while making them the No. 3 offense in the league averaging 403 YPG.

A few wise guys have also played Titans (+5.5) at Baltimore following the Ravens loss at New England in the Week 10 Sunday Night Finale. The spread was Ravens -7 before their loss at Foxboro.

The Vikings have stayed off the radar for most respected money and the game has stayed -7 all week against the Cowboys after opening -7.5.

Dallas QB Andy Dalton is expected to start but he's looked horrendous in scattered play over three games before being placed in multiple cautionary protocols.

Remember his last game, the one where the Redskins gave him a cheap shot and he laid on the ground and none of his teammates responded. The risk will be high on this game just because of the teasers.

With both the Cardinals and Seahawks winning on teasers Thursday, there’s a sneaky built-in risk that will multiply several times over on Sunday that will be linked to the Vikings, Chiefs, Steelers, and Chargers.

Week 11 - Public vs. Sharp Leans

Sharps:

  • Eagles
  • Falcons
  • Broncos
  • Chargers
  • Colts
  • Patriots
  • Titans

Public:

  • Packers
  • Steelers
  • Dolphins
  • Patriots
  • Chiefs

Roberts is a former Las Vegas sports book director that has been covering the sports betting industry for the last 16 years.


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