Tech Trends – Week 1

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

6 minute read

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Week 1 of the NFL regular season will offer up three days of betting action, starting on Thursday, Sept. 9 and ending on Monday, Sept. 13.

We've identified betting trends and angles for all of the 16 matchups.

Also, we have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS), Over-Under (O/U)

Thursday, Sept. 9

Dallas at Tampa Bay (NBC - 8:20 p.m. ET)

• Dallas 2-6 vs. line away LY, partly with Dak (0-2 in his games).
• Dallas was 8-3 vs. line as dog 2018-19 with Dak. But Cowboys now on 2-8 spread skid away.
• Time starts for the Bucs last season post-Brady; 12-7 vs. line including 6-2-1 at home.

Tech Edge: Bucs, based on recent trends.

Sunday, Sept. 12

Pittsburgh at Buffalo (CBS - 1:00 p.m. ET)

• Bills have won and covered this matchup past two years.
• Tomlin 3-1 as dog LY, 8-3 in role since 2019, 13-3 since 2018. Also 11-5 “under” away since 2019 (4-4 LY).
• Buff 7-3 vs. line last 11 as Orchard Park chalk, and, Bills “over” 12-5 in 2020 after “under” 13-4 in 2019.

Tech Edge: Steelers, based on extended dog marks.

N.Y. Jets at Carolina (CBS - 1:00 p.m. ET)

• Saleh debut with Jets, who closed the Gase era dropping 8 of last 11 vs. spread on road.
• Jets also 7-4 “under” last 11 away.
• Rhule 1-3 as chalk in Carolina debut LY.

Tech Edge: Slight to “under,” based on “totals” trends.

Jacksonville at Houston (CBS - 1:00 p.m. ET)

• Urban Meyer and David Culley debuts.
• Despite 1-5 SU last year, Jags not so bad (4-4) vs. line away.
• “Unders” 5-1 last six in series, and Texans “under” 13-7 last 20 at NRG Stadium.

Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.

Arizona at Tennessee (CBS - 1:00 p.m. ET)

• Kingsbury has covered openers past two years, and Cards 10-6 vs. spread in first halves of last two seasons.
• After 13-4-1 dog mark to begin Card tenure, Kingsbury 0-4 since in role.
• Kingsbury also now now “under” 13-7 last 20.
• Titans only 3-5 as home chalk LY, 47 last 11 vs. spread at Nissan, also “over” 7-1 at home in reg season, and “over” 12-2 last 14 as reg season host.

Tech Edge: Cards and slight to “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

L.A. Chargers at Washington (CBS - 1:00 p.m. ET)

• Staley debut for Bolts, who were a fairly non-descript spread t4eam in 2020, though 6-2 “over” away.
• Rivera 6-2 vs. spread down stretch for WFT last season.
• If dog here, also covered 5 of last 6 as dog. Wash also “under” 5-1 last six in 2020.

Tech Edge: Slight to WFT, based on team trends.

Philadelphia at Atlanta (FOX - 1:00 p.m. ET)

• Nick Sirianni debut for Eagles, Arthur Smith debut for Falcons.
• Philly really caved in 2020 especially on road, just 1-7 vs. line away.
• Philly 8-4 “over” last 12 away.
• Falcons also nosedived LY, 3-5 vs. line at Mercedes Benz Stadium, and 7-13 as chalk since 2018.

Tech Edge: Slight to “over:” based on “totals” trends.

Seattle at Indianapolis (FOX - 1:00 p.m. ET)

• Hawks only 4-8 vs. line last 12 as chalk a year ago, and dropped last six vs. spread on road.
• Seattle 3-8-1 vs. number last 12 away.
• Reich 10-6 as dog with Indy.

Tech Edge: Colts, based on team trends.

Minnesota at Cincinnati (FOX - 1:00 p.m. ET)

• Vikings 6-11 last 17 on board, also 19-9 “over” run.
• Bengals actually on 10-6-1 spread mini-uptick since late 2019.

Tech Edge: Bengals and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

San Francisco at Detroit (FOX - 1:00 p.m. ET)

• Campbell debut for Lions.
• Even in nicked-up 2020, Niners still 5-3 vs. line away, after 6-2 visitor spread mark in 2019; now 11-5 as visitor vs. line past two seasons.
• Detroit enters 2021 on 5-9 spread skid at Ford Field. Lions “over” 20-12 since 2019.

Tech Edge: 49ers and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

Cleveland at Kansas City (CBS - 4:25 p.m. ET)

• Rematch of Division Round playoff won by Chiefs but covered by Browns.
• Cleveland covered 4 of last 5 away in 2010 and 4 of last 6 as dog.
• Andy Reid only covered 2 of last 11 a year ago, and 1 of last 6 at Arrowhead.

Tech Edge: Browns, based on team trends.

Miami at New England (CBS - 4:25 p.m. ET)

• Dolphins often caused trouble for Belichick even in the Brady years, though most of that came in Miami.
• At Gillette Stadium, Miami lost 10 straight between 2009-18 and dropped 7 in a row vs line at one point, and still just -8 last 9 vs. spread in Foxborough.
• Dolphins did cover 12 of 16 LY and now on 21-7 spread run since early 2019. Belichick “under” 29-15 last 44.

Tech Edge: “Under” and slight to Patriots, based on “totals” and series trends.

Green Bay vs. New Orleans - game in Jacksonville (FOX - 4:25 p.m. ET)

• This one moved to J’ville due to Hurricane Ida.
• Pack only 5-5 laying points away past two seasons.
• GB enters 2021 on 13-7 “over” run.
• Saints had dropped six openers in a row vs. number until beating Bucs LY, but have covered 5 of last 6 as dog.

Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

Denver at N.Y. Giants (FOX - 4:25 p.m. ET)

• Fangio 9-5 last 14 vs. line away, though not Denver not favored at all in 2020.
• G-Men finished “under” last 7 in 2020 en route to 12-3 “under” mark, G-Men also 4-9-1 last 14 vs. spread at MetLife.

Tech Edge: Broncos and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

Chicago at L.A. Rams (NBC - 8:20 p.m. ET)

• These teams have played clear “unders” the past three seasons.
• Rams “under” 12-6 in 2020, Bears “under” 25-14 their last 39 since late 2018.
• Chicago only 3-6 vs. lien down stretch in 2020.

Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.

Monday, Sept. 13

Baltimore at Las Vegas (ESPN, 8:15 p.m. ET)

• Ravens 10-3-1 vs. spread last 14 away, also “under” 6-1 last 7 as visitor.
• Harbaugh has won and covered last five openers by combined 171-26 score.
• Raiders only 2-6 vs. spread at empty Allegiant Stadium LY, now 2-9 last 11 as host stretching to last Oakland season of 2019.
• Gruden “over” last five in 2020 en route to 12-3 “‘over” mark.

Tech Edge: Ravens, based on team trends.

Where to place a bet this NFL Season?

• Use our exclusive BetMGM Bonus Code VIBONUS1500 to unlock BetMGM’s welcome offer for new sportsbook users!
• Compare the latest NFL Odds from the best sportsbooks before placing a bet on this week's games.
• Check out the North Carolina Sportsbooks just before they launch legal online sports betting.

VegasInsider Staff

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