Betting Recap – Week 1

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

18 minute read

Overall Notes

The largest underdogs to win straight up

• Steelers +6.5 (ML +240) at Bills, 23-16
• Dolphins +3.5 (ML +165) at Patriots, 17-16
• Saints +3.5 (ML +165) vs. Packers, 38-3
• Bengals +3 (ML +135) vs. Vikings, 27-24 (OT)
• Eagles +3 (ML +150) at Falcons, 32-6
• Texans +3 (ML +150) vs. Jaguars, 37-21
• Cardinals +3 (ML +130) at Titans, 38-13

The largest favorites to cover

• Rams (-9) vs. Bears, 34-14
• Panthers (-3.5) vs. Jets, 19-14
• Broncos (-3) at Giants, 27-13
• Seahawks (-3) at Colts, 28-16

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

If you were holding a Patriots (-3.5) ticket, or to a lesser extent, a Patriots money line ticket, things were looking up. With less than four minutes to go, the Patriots were driving. Rookie QB Mac Jones the opportunity to engineer a game-winning drive in his first NFL start. A field goal would have given the Pats the lead, but a touchdown would've meant they were covering for the first time all day. But it wasn't meant to be.

Dwayne Harris popped out to the right, but put the ball on the ground inside the Miami 10-yard line. DB Xavien Howard pounded on top of the ball, spoiling Harris' fourth-career 100-yard rushing performance. More importantly, bettors were handed a tough loss, almost like losing twice.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

UNDER bettors (47.5) in the Minnesota Vikings-Cincinnati Bengals game were feeling pretty good after a scoreless first quarter. However, the pace picked up dramatically in the second and third quarters with 35 total points. We had 45 on the board until the last tick in regulation, when Vikings PK Greg Joseph lined up for a career-high 53-yard field goal attempt.

He booted it through the uprights with no time left, giving the Vikings (-3) bettors a little hope. At the same time, 48 total points officially splashed cold water on the Under. Vikings bettors still had a shot at a touchdown for a cover, or a push, but the Minnesota offense continually bogged down. A fumble by RB Dalvin Cook inside the Cincinnati 40-yard line meant those hopes were dashed, but a push was still in play. But with no time left on the clock in the extra session, rookie PK Evan McPherson split the uprights from 33 yards out to give the Bengals the outright win.

 The Vikings-Bengals game was the only one which required an extra session. It was also one of seven games in Week 1 decided by one score.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board for Week 1 was the Denver Broncos-New York Giants (41.5) game. The books were on the mark, as we had a scoreless first quarter and a total of just 24 points on the board through 45 minutes heading to the fourth quarter. It was actually one of three games in Week 1 to have a scoreless first quarter, as the New York Jets-Carolina Panthers (44.5) game, and the Vikings-Bengals, had a similar slow start. Only the game in Cincinnati ended up going OVER.

The highest total in the Week 1 slate was the AFC showdown between the Cleveland Browns-Kansas City Chiefs (54.5). It did not disappoint, either. We got off on a bit of a slow start with just 11 points in the first quarter, putting the total on pace for an UNDER. Cleveland held a 22-10 lead at the half, however, picking things up dramatically.

In the second half, it was all Kansas City, as the home side outscored Cleveland by a 23-7 count. As such, the OVER ended up easily cashing. 

The second-highest game on the board was the Arizona Cardinals-Tennessee Titans (54) game, and the visitors did their part. They ended up throwing up 38 points on the board, but the Titans, and their retooled offense with newcomer WR Julio Jones, were disappointing. Tennessee managed just 13 points to lay a fat egg, and help keep the total UNDER.

As far as primetime games were concerned, things got off to a high-scoring start. Dallas Cowboys-Tampa Bay Buccaneers (52.5) saw a total of 60 points for the OVER. In the Sunday Night Football game, the Chicago Bears-Los Angeles Rams (46) game inched across the finish line with an OVER, too, but it was a sweat shop.

For the regular season the OVER is 2-0 (100.0%) across 2 primetime games, with the Baltimore Ravens-Las Vegas Raiders game on Monday still pending. In 2020, the UNDER was 28-19-1 (59.5%) in 48 primetime contests. In 2019, the UNDER went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 2

New York Giants at Washington Football Team (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Giants didn't come close to covering the spread at home in Week 1 against the Broncos, while WFT came up on the short end of the stick in a 20-16 score as two-point favorites.

The G-Men didn't have a lot of success in 2020, but they did manage to sweep the NFC East Division champs from Washington, including a 23-20 victory in Week 9 as three-point underdogs. The UNDER cashed in each game, with New York averaging 21.5 PPG in the two meetings, and Washington averaging 19.5 PPG.

In 2019, New York also swept Washington, including a thrilling 41-35 overtime win in Week 16 on Dec. 22, 2019. The Giants have won five straight in this series, and three straight in D.C. dating back to Nov. 23, 2017.

New England Patriots at New York Jets (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Patriots came up short at home against the division-rival Dolphins, and now the rookie Jones will make his first start on the road. The Jets ended up losing to old friend QB Sam Darnold and the Carolina Panthers in Charlotte, missing out on the cover as the UNDER connected.

These teams last met Jan. 3, 2021 in Week 17, with the Patriots winning 28-14 with the OVER (41) just coming in. The Jets narrowly missed in Week 9, too, covering as 9-point underdogs in a 30-27 loss as the OVER also connected. In fact, the OVER is 3-1 across the past four meetings in this series.

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

Tom Brady and the Bucs face the NFC East champs in D.C. in a 5-4 game. Despite the lower seed the Buccaneers opened as a touchdown favorite, one of just two road favorites in the wild-card round. Washington ended the regular season 1-2 SU in their final three, and 0-2 ATS in the final two, while the 'under' cashed in five straight to close out the season.

The Bucs tossed up 91 total points in the final two weekends, as their offense is on fire. They won four in a row, and went 4-1 ATS down the stretch in the final five. Tampa Bay has also scored 24 or more points in each of the past seven, although the 'under' is still 3-2 in the past five. Watch WR Mike Evans and his status, as he hyperextended a left knee in the finale. An MRI showed no structural or ligament damage, which is good, but he is still a question mark.

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Saints, displaced by Hurricane Ida, were forced to move its game from New Orleans after damage to the city. They were given a choice, and selected a Florida location based upon the struggles of the Packers in the Sunshine State. They chose wisely. New Orleans thrashed Green Bay 38-3 to easily cover as 4-point 'dogs as the UNDER (48.5) connected.

The Panthers, as mentioned above, topped Darnold's old team, the Jets, at BoA in Charlotte by a 19-14 count as the UNDER hit.

These teams met in Week 17, with New Orleans winning 33-7 in Charlotte as the UNDER connected. Of course, a lot of the recent history is a little on the meaningless side since QB Drew Brees has retired, and a lot of the recent history involves QB Cam Newton for the Panthers. He isn't even on an NFL roster at the moment.

For what it's worth, though, the Saints have won four straight trips to Charlotte, going 3-1 ATS. The three covers were all victories by 21 or more points, too.

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The defending champion Bucs escaped on Thursday night with a 31-29 victory against the Dallas Cowboys as the OVER cashed and the visitors covered. The Falcons also faced an NFC East foe, falling 32-6 at home to the Philadelphia Eagles.

The Buccaneers won in Week 17 by a 44-27 count as 7.5-point favorites on Jan. 3, 2021 as the OVER (51.5) cashed. The teams met just two weeks prior at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, and the Bucs escaped with a 31-27 win as the OVER (49.5) also hit.

When these teams meet, points are sure to follow. We have had six straight OVER results in this series, including each of the past three meetings in Tampa, since an UNDER on Dec. 18, 2017.

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

The Lions were getting buried, but they made a valiant comeback against the 49ers at Ford Field. San Francisco ended up winning 41-33, but the Lions grabbed a cover. The OVER (46) easily cashed in the highest scoring game of the weekend.

The Packers managed just a field goal, falling 38-3 in Jacksonville against the Saints as the UNDER held on. QB Aaron Rodgers looked frustrated all day, and he was yanked early in the fourth quarter as rookie Jordan Love mopped up.

Green Bay won 31-24 in Week 14 at Ford Field, but the Lions grabbed a cover. The UNDER (55.5) came in at most shops, too, ever so narrowly. The Pack won 42-21 at home in Week 2 as 7-point favorites, too, as the OVER (51) hit. Green Bay has won four straight in the series, but Detroit is 3-1 ATS across the past four meetings.
 
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