Sportsbooks have been clobbered the last two NFL Sunday’s which means the casual public bettor is flush with cash with hopes of winning big again in Week 7 NFL action.
In looking back on all my years behind the counter at Las Vegas sportsbooks and then later writing about it weekly, I don’t know that I’ve ever seen three straight big losing NFL Sundays. That’s what the books are staring at this week. Has it happened?
“I have a poor memory,” laughed Las Vegas SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay. “I don’t remember one specifically but there must have been one in the last 30-plus years.”
Yes, my memory is faulty too, but three straight big losses don’t ring a bell. So let’s just say it doesn’t happen often. Jason McCormick said the 2016 season was brutal for Station books, but couldn’t remember if it was three straight weeks.
I’m starting this by letting you know how rare it is for books to lose three straight NFL Sundays. The adjusted team ratings always catch up to who a team really is with the point-spread and this is the seventh week of oddsmaker adjustments.
This week the adjustments stayed one step ahead of the public bettors by taxing them on the spread if they choose to go against the Jets, Lions, Giants, Texans, and Washingtons again. The public loves their regular teams, but they swarm in on the wounded like a cheetah in the serengeti.
The dirty five are a combined 5-24 and 10-19 ATS and have been prominently featured as public bet-against teams in all their winning six-team parlays the last two weeks.
Multiple Nevada sportsbooks reported their top public bets (tickets written, parlays) of the week through Friday have been the Packers (-8 vs. Washington) and the Patriots (-7 vs. Jets).
I’ll be the first one to say ride the streak. I do it myself all the time in all sports. But at what point is it too many points? Sharp money came into Station Casinos and the SuperBook and took Washington +9.5 down to +8.
Kornegay said their biggest risk at the SuperBook was on the Patriots which I find interesting because the Patriots haven’t been that swift on the season so far at 2-4 straight-up and ATS, including 0-4 and 1-3 ATS at home. The public hates the Jets that much. The spread has been Patriots -7 all week.
The public also likes the 6-0 Cardinals (-18 vs. Texans), the Rams (-16.5 vs Lions), and the Ravens (-6.5 vs. Bengals). The Cardinals play the Packers on a short week next week. Of course, they’re overlooking the Texans with rookie QB David Mills on the road. How about the Cardinals get a 28-points lead, pull many of the key starters and cruise home to a 17-point win and not get anyone hurt?
Circa Sports opened the Cards -17 and it’s been bumped up to -18, which is about 4-points higher than the Cardinals should be without any tax added.
The game I’m most intrigued about this week is Jared Goff returning to SoFi Stadium (with fans this year) to face the Rams and new QB Matt Stafford who Goff was traded for. And it comes a week after Lions head coach Dan Campbell told the media Goff needs to step up more. The Lions are still winless at 0-6, but they are 3-3 ATS and have shown they can move the ball.
The Rams have been bumped up from -15 to -16.5 when the proper number without any dirty tax should probably be -13.5.
You’ll notice the Buccaneers didn’t make the people’s choice awards as they do every week because the Bears are respected by all, especially sharp groups this week. The Bucs opened as a 13.5-point home favorite and the wise-guys said that’s too much fat and pushed down most books to -11.5. Sharp money also took the extra fat on the Texans at Arizona.
The South Point took sharp money on the Giants +3 for their home game against the Panthers. Other books have too and have moved the Panthers to -3 EVEN, but the South Point doesn’t do money moves on the spread so they’re anchored in at +3 flat until a couple more limit bets push them to 2.5.
The SuperBook took sharp action on the Bengals +6.5 at Baltimore and are now Ravens -6.
The Chiefs at Titans has been a 50-50 bet game with the SuperBook getting more public play on the Chiefs. The Titans are 4-2 SU and ATS and are getting +4.5 after opening +5. The Chiefs are back? Can they stop Derrick Henry who is already posted with an over-under of 125 yards rushing? The total has been bumped from 56 to 57.5.
Marc Nelson’s Reno Atlantis has taken sharp action on the Titans and Bears
So good luck everyone. Lots to think about this week before latching onto a team this week. Just know betting against the bad teams this week has a higher dirty tax rate than any in the first six weeks.