Last Updated Nov 12, 2021, 7:00 PM
Vegas Money Moves - Week 10
The top two public sides in each of the last two weeks have fallen hard, losing outright, which has coincided with the sportsbooks winning big. So as I’m about to reveal who the public has cursed or blessed in NFL Week 10 action, remember that the big beautiful Las Vegas sportsbooks weren’t made by beating sharp bettors who bet for the limit and bet only straight bets.
It’s the greed of the public betting parlays that built the modern-day sportsbook. Bet a little to win a lot, but all the sides have to win or cover. You go 2-1, you lose. Three-teamers are hard to cash, but when they do with all the same opinions then the books get destroyed. In the first nine weeks, the books had two such weeks like that. But then the sportsbooks more than made up for the losses in the last two weeks.
Let’s do a flashback to last week’s column when the Raiders were the most popular bet across Nevada sportsbooks and they lost as 3-point road favorites at the Giants. They also loved the perfect 7-0 ATS Cowboys at home against the Broncos who lost as 10-point home favorites.
They also liked the Rams -7.5 at Tennessee and the Titans dominated without RB Derrick Henry. The popular Bills also lost last week at Jacksonville, 9-6, as 16.5-point road favorites as Josh Allen beat Josh Allen.
The public couldn’t gain any momentum on the day. Sharp money did well with the Browns and Broncos winning as underdogs, two of seven underdogs to win outright last week.
The Average Joe has lots of questions that need answers this week because his plan of attack has had some major holes the last two weeks. He loves taking his regular favorites each week, but the Chiefs haven’t covered their last three and the Buccaneers are 0-4 ATS on the road this season. He’s also starting to look sketchy-eyed at the Bills and Cowboys after last week.
For the first time all season, the Average Joe is looking hard into throwing some underdogs into his parlay action this week. But first, injuries need to be understood a bit more.
The Patriots top-2 RB's didn’t practice Friday which usually means it’s passed the questionable label. They welcome the Browns this week and the spread has been bet up from Patriots -2 to -2.5 by sharp groups at the Atlantis Reno and Las Vegas SuperBook. The Browns will also be without starting RB Nick Chubb.
Some starting QBs are back this week with Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers both back and playing at Green Bay where sharp money has bet the Seahawks from +4.5 to as low as +3 at the South Point. The SuperBook, BetMGM, and Station Casinos all took sharp bets on the Seahawks with Wilson’s return even though the Packers have covered their last eight games.
Saints starting RB Alvin Kamara will miss making backup Mark Ingram get most of the carries and backup QB Trevor Siemian gets the start again. South Point’s Chris Andrews and Station Casinos VP Jason McCormick both said they took sharp bets on the Saints.
And that brings us to the most bet public team this week. It’s the Titans. They love the Titans. Five straight wins, five straight covers, and what they saw last was the Titans on Monday night giving the respected Rams an ass-whipping in their fancy new stadium. No Henry and WR Julio Jones is again questionable
Next up for the public is the Buccaneers laying 9.5 points on the road at Washington. This is a spot where most know the Bucs are 0-4 ATS on the road, but the sidebar to this discussion that beats all inner arguments is that Washington stinks.
The Football Team is 1-7 ATS this season and are 0-4 ATS SU and ATS in their last four games. The Bucs will be without WR Antonio Brown and TE Rob Gronkowski and WR Chris Godwin is doubtful. But Tom Brady is active.
Next up is the Cowboys who are 9-point home favorites over the Falcons who are 3-1 SU and ATS on the road. The Falcons just upset the Saints in the Superdome. Maybe the Broncos defense laid out a plan on how to frustrate the Cowboys for all to watch. Last season, the Cowboys came back from a deficit at home to beat the Falcons 40-39, but the Falcons got the money at +3.
Up next for the public is a mix of the Chiefs, Rams, Steelers, and Cardinals who should have QB Kyler Murray back starting after a week off with backup QB Colt McCoy shredding the 49ers.
The Cardinals are -10.5 at home against the Panthers who will be without QB Sam Darnold and backup P.J. Walker is expected to start. Newly acquired Cam Newton is expected to start at QB next week and the remainder of the season.
The Rams acquired WR Odell Beckham to fill a void in their receiving group that didn’t exist. They dropped from -4 to -3.5 at San Francisco Monday night. The 49ers couldn’t stop a backup QB and third-string RB last week at home against the Cardinals.
The Chiefs have been a steady -2.5 all week for their Sunday night game at Las Vegas against the Raiders who got shut down by the Giants, 23-16, last week. Derek Carr threw a pick-six that was basically the game. No consistency, up and down, for the Raiders.
The public is finicky and will turn on you in a week. Last week they loved the Raiders. Last week, the Raiders cost them money. This week they hate the Raiders and are riding with the Chiefs who are 2-7 ATS this season. Patrick Mahomes is not the Patrick Mahomes we’ve all known to respect the past three seasons. The Chiefs game plan in a 13-7 win against the Packers last week was to hide Mahomes.
The Steelers are in the same boat. The public hates the winless Lions more even though the Lions are 4-4 ATS and the Steelers are 3-5 ATS. But the Steelers have won four straight. Sharp money is on the Lions +9 down to +8.
So good luck to all my Average Joe’s out there this week. May your plan include a nice mix of underdogs and favorites and be diversified with some straight bets.
Public wagers: Titans, Buccaneers, Cowboys, Rams, Chiefs, Cardinals, Steelers, and Browns
Sharp wagers: Seahawks, Saints, Patriots, Chargers, Jets, and Lions.