Seahawks vs. Eagles Week 12 Predictions, Odds, Preview
- November 27, 2020
- By Matt Blunt
- VegasInsider.com
Seahawks vs. Eagles - Predictions
- Score Prediction: Seattle 30 Philadelphia 27
- Best Bet: Over 50
Well, here we are again, capping off another week with Carson Wentz and the Philadelphia Eagles in a prime time spot, and for the first time in weeks are looking up at a rival in the NFC East standings as well. The criticism of his play gets louder and grows in reach with each passing week, as even the biggest apologists for him are running out of other things to point to.
I'll never be accused of being in that group, but with so much anti-Eagles sentiment in the marketplace now because of Wentz's poor play, it puts the Eagles at least in a betting spot where I've got to at least consider them.
I've long said I want no part of the Eagles as a favorite, but as a home underdog on MNF against a darling team in the market like Seattle, it can be hard to trust pulling the trigger on the Seahawks when you know most of the known world is as well. That's not something I prefer to do too often, but you'd also be lucky to get more than five words out trying to convince me to go against Wentz before I agreed with you.
So it's another week where there have been a few headaches trying to figure out a creative way to present another Wentz/Eagles breakdown, and I've resigned myself to the idea that SNF in Week 17 will have the flex spot used on Philadelphia vs one of their NFC East rivals for the division crown.
Remember this piece if/when that does happen in a few weeks, but until then let's see if we can find enough confidence in some angles to cash a winner here.
Betting Resources
- Week 12 Matchup: NFC
- Expert Picks: Vegas Insiders
- Venue: Lincoln Financial Field
- Location: Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
- Date: Monday, Nov. 30, 2020
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
- Bet: BetMGM | BetRivers | FanDuel | PointsBet | All |California Sports Betting
Seattle looks to defeat Philadelphia for a seventh straight time on Monday night. (AP)
Seahawks-Eagles Betting Odds
Odds Subject to Change
2020 Betting Stats
(Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under - O/U)
Seattle
- Overall: 7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS, 6-4 O/U
- Road: 2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS, 3-2 O/U
- Offense PPG: 31.8 (Rank 2)
- Defense PPG: 28.7 (Rank 28)
- Offense YPG: 400.0 (Rank 5)
- Defense YPG: 434.9 (Rank 32)
Philadelphia
- Overall: 3-6-1 SU, 3-7 ATS, 4-6 O/U
- Home: 2-2-1 SU, 2-3 ATS, 2-3 O/U
- Offense PPG: 22.0 (Rank 24)
- Defense PPG: 25.4 (Rank 16)
- Offense YPG: 330.1 (Rank 26)
- Defense YPG: 342.7 (Rank 10)
Over vs. Under
Handicapping the Total
I haven't been the kindest to the Seahawks either in past prime time pieces as I always figured it would be their defense that would hold them back, and that's starting to get much more noticed as well in the past few weeks. When Russell Wilson is just “average” or worse out there, this Seahawks team can look quite bad at times.
But the defense has tightened it up some in recent weeks in allowing 23 and 21 points to two division rivals, and this game against the Eagles starts a stretch for Seattle where they play at Philadelphia, N.Y. Giants, N.Y. Jets, and at Washington. If you want to give a team the best chance to flip some bad defensive numbers around, you give them a stretch in their schedule like that don't you?
That's definitely what the majority of the market appears to believe as this total opened at 52 and has dropped thanks to plenty of support. Having a defense (like Seattle's) that appears to be trending in the right direction up against a QB that's only been ragged on for weeks (and rightfully so overall) is fertile soil for 'under' support to grow, combined with plenty of Seahawks SU and ATS love behind it.
But the problem is, I'm not sure Seattle's defense is even good enough to completely flip what we've seen from them around. Division games are always ones where there are very few secrets on both sides so defenses can look much better than they really are, and an 'under' play also means you've got to dodge the Superman version of Wilson in all likelihood as well.
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That's been a lot tougher to do this year then anyone would have thought, but after two of his “rougher” games in terms of piling up big numbers on the stat sheet, Wilson may be in store for one of those put the team on his back performances. Philly's allowed at least 20 points in every game but one – the Ben Dinucci Dallas game – meaning this is a great opportunity for Wilson and Seattle's offense to get right again as well in putting up 30+ each week.
Seattle's defense has allowed at least 21 points in every single one of their games this year, and staying focused enough late in a blowout win for themselves, might leave the backdoor open long enough for an 'over' to connect here.
Wentz is capable enough to move the ball against this Seattle defense, and even though the last time I trusted him to connect on an 'over' play, the game fell 1.5 points short with two failed Philadelphia 2PT conversions and a Wentz INT in the end zone.
At least this time any 'over' look has Wilson sharing the field with Wentz and not Daniel Jones, so trusting the 'over' makes quite a bit of sense here. Throw in the added sentiment of each of the last five meetings between these two franchises easily cashing 'under' tickets (no more than 41 points scored in those five games) being a repeated talking point this week, and I'm not sure all the 'under' sentiment will be the correct move at the end of the night.
Can only look to the 'over' now.
Head-to-Head History
- Jan. 5, 2020 - Seattle 17 at Philadelphia 9, Seahawks +1, Under 44
- Nov. 24, 2019 - Seattle 17 at Philadelphia 9, Seahawks -1, Under 45.5
- Dec. 3, 2017 - Seattle 24 vs. Philadelphia 10, Seahawks +3.5, Under 46.5
Seahawks vs. Eagles
Handicapping the Side
Defaulting to a play on the total (in whatever direction) may be the way to save dealing with some stress and anxiety in this game, as on the field, everything suggests Seattle should win this game easily. But a home underdog nobody wants is a spot where you can at least expect them to attempt to put up a fight to help the house out a bit. It's been nothing but Seattle money and rightfully so.
The best of the Seattle number that opened at -3 has long been gone though, and it would be in typical NFL fashion to have something peculiar happen and see the Seahawks win this game by four.
Following a heavy majority like this for the final game of a week is not a practice you typically want to make a habit, but it's hard to give any other argument legitimacy in this specific matchup either.
Backing Wentz and the Eagles in their prime time win over the 49ers earlier in the year was a time where Wentz's play did plenty for me, but outside of Philly being in a nice contrarian spot, I still want no part of them here.
The Eagles defense is the perfect candidate to have Wilson put on his superhero cape again, and expecting the Seahawks to win by at least a TD is a highly probably outcome.
In the end you've probably got to side with what's on the field in this particular case, but maybe waiting for the Seahawks to get down early – a bad start for a shaky defense perhaps – and jump in on live action at a time when something like -3 or better is available again.
That would be how I'd be looking to attack the side, but if the heavy lean in both side and total breakdowns is that I expect Wilson to perform on the better side of his spectrum, I'd prefer to take my chances with the total play.
Key Injuries
Seattle
- CB Shaquill Griffin: Concussion - Probable
- RB Chris Carson: Foot - Probable
- WR David Moore: Undisclosed - Questionable
- T Brandon Shell: Ankle - Questionable
- C Kyle Fuller: Ankle - Questionable
- RB Travis Homer: Knee - Questionable
- G Jordan Simmons: Calf - Questionable
- CB Neiko Thorpe: Groin - Questionable
- C Ethan Pocic: Concussion - Questionable
- WR Stephen Sullivan: Undisclosed - Out
- TE Greg Olsen: Foot - Out
- RB Bo Scarbrough: Hamstring - Out
Philadelphia
- C Jason Kelce: Elbow - Probable
- T Jason Peters: Undisclosed - Questionable
- DE Derek Barnett: Knee - Questionable
- RB Jordan Howard: Acquired - Questionable
- S Rudy Ford: Hamstring - Questionable
- WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside: COVID-19 - Questionable
- TE Zach Ertz: Ankle - Doubtful
- T Lane Johnson: Ankle - Out
- CB Cre'von LeBlanc: Ankle - Out
2020 Monday Night Football (MNF) Betting Results
Betting Results
Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS)
- Home-Away: 4-7 SU, 6-5 ATS
- Favorites-Underdogs: 7-4 SU, 5-6 ATS
- Over-Under: 5-6
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