Bills vs. Dolphins Predictions, Odds, Picks

Sept. 19, 2021
Michael Crosson
VI Betting Expert

Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins Predictions

Score Prediction - Bills 29 Dolphins 23

The Buffalo Bills opened their season with a 23-16 setback at Ralph Wilson Stadium in western New York, not exactly the way they drew things up. Buffalo actually fired out to a 10-0 start, and that's the way things stood until 10:23 to go in the third quarter. The Steelers notched a pair of field goals, but Buffalo still led 10-6 going into the fourth. However, the offense bogged down significantly, and there was a big special teams play, too. Pittsburgh recorded a blocked punt return for score, and the Steelers outscored the Bills 17-6 in the final 11:19 for the comeback road win.

The Bills managed to run for just 117 yards with 254 passing yards, and they were sacked three times. In addition, Buffalo was a little on the undisciplined side, committing eight penalties for 81 yards while also coughing up a fumble. Buffalo struggled in the red zone, too, cashing in on just one four trips inside the 20-yard line. That's something they'll need to clean up in South Florida.

The Dolphins recorded a 17-16 victory on the road against rookie QB Mac Jones and the New England Patriots, winning outright as a 3.5-point underdog. QB Tua Tagovailoa opened the scoring with a 3-yard scoring run late in the first quarter, and he also hit rookie WR Jaylen Waddle for a short touchdown early in the third quarter. Those were two memorable plays for the Dolphins, who hung on defensively late in the game for the big road win. In fact, Miami was the only AFC East team to record a victory in the opening weekend.

However, the books are not overreacting. The Bills lost to a difficult Steelers team, and they're still a road favorite over the Dolphins despite their big road win. And it's warranted, too. The Bills are falling to 0-2 to start the season, as they'll get it done in this one. Look for QB Josh Allen and WR Stefon Diggs to get it doing after a mediocre performance by their standards. It will be interesting to see how RB Devin Singletary does in his return to South Florida, where he played at Florida Atlantic University. And if he doesn't do it, backup RB Matt Breida could run with a chip on his shoulder against the team he spent 2020 with.

The point total has gone OVER in five straight games played between the Dolphins and Bills. (AP)

Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins Best Bets

  • Bills -175
  • Bills -3.5
  • Over 47

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Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins Game Odds

  • Bills -175
  • Dolphins +150
  • Bills (-3.5) -110
  • Dolphins (+3.5) -110
  • Over 47 (-115)
  • Under 47 (-105)

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Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Resources

  • Matchup: AFC East
  • Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
  • Location: Miami Gardens, Florida
  • TV-Time: FOX - 1:00 p.m. ET

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Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Analysis

Buffalo has won five consecutive games in this series, including a 56-26 victory in Week 17 last season at Hard Rock Stadium. They won that one outright as a 3.5-point underdog as the OVER hit. The OVER has connected in five consecutive meetings in this series, and Buffalo has scored 31 or more points in each of those outings. Miami has been doing well offensively, too, going for 20 or more points in each of the past four in this series, averaging 23.8 PPG during the span.

If you play the Bills, you'll be playing against a few trends in favor of the Dolphins. Miami has cashed in six straight against the spread at home, and they're 5-1 ATS in the past six games inside the AFC East. Miami is also an impressive 17-5 ATS in the past 22 as an underdog.

While the trends for the Dolphins are rather impressive, the Bills have also held their own against the number. Buffalo is 9-3 ATS in the past 12 games overall, while going 4-1 ATS in the past five on the road. They're also 5-2 ATS in the past seven when favored, and Allen and the Bills are going to bounce back against a Dolphins team which is still a bit mediocre and a work in progress. I don't think Miami has the skill position players to go toe to toe with the likes of Allen, Diggs, Singletary, Cole Beasley and company.

Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Trends

  • Buffalo has won seven of its last eight games when facing Miami.
  • The point total has gone OVER in five straight games played between both teams.
  • Miami has covered the spread in six straight home games.

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