Last Updated Sep 30, 2021, 2:00 PM

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New England Patriots Predictions, Odds, Picks

Oct. 3, 2021
Michael Crosson
VI Betting Expert

The fourth Sunday of regular-season NFL action will wrap things up with Tom Brady’s highly anticipated Foxborough homecoming – as the New England Patriots will play host to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 8:20 E.T. on NBC.

Score Prediction: Buccaneers 27, Patriots 17

Best Bet: Under 49.5

Best Bet: Tom Brady (TMB/QB) Over 0.5 INT

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New England Patriots Predictions

After dropping a heart breaker to Miami to start the year (17-16), the Patriots bounced back with a triumphant 25-6 road win over the Jets in their following matchup – which persuaded most shops to favor New England by roughly a field goal at home over the Saints in Week 3.

Clearly, the Patriots were wrongly favored in that event though, as New Orleans ended up rushing 38 times for 142 yards during their commanding victory in Foxborough (28-13) – while New England ran just 17 times for 49 yards throughout last week’s contest.

On the other hand, the Buccaneers were excellent in their first two home matchups of the year, as Brady and company escaped with a thrilling two-point victory over Dallas in Week 1 (31-29) – and then thumped Atlanta by 23 the following week (48-25).

Tampa Bay finally ran into some trouble on the road in its latest matchup though, as despite Brady completing 41-of-55 passes for 432 yards against the Rams last week (103 QBR), the Bucs’ cashed in just 24 points along their road trip to L.A. – resulting in a double-digit loss for the defending champs (34-24).

I’ll take the under here, as the Bucs’ shouldn’t have too much trouble containing a Patriots’ offense that generated just 18 points per game across the first three weeks of the season – while I also expect Bill Belichick to prepare an exquisite defensive strategy ahead of New England’s first showdown against Brady since the 14-time Pro-Bowler’s devastating departure.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New England Patriots Betting Odds

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The Buccaneers head to Foxborough as a touchdown-favorite over the Patriots at Gillette Stadium – marking the first time New England has been listed as an underdog this season.

The total for Sunday’s event falls just short of OU 50 at most shops, which comfortably stands as the lowest bar set for a Bucs’ game this season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New England Patriots Betting Resources

  • Matchup: NFC South vs. AFC East
  • Date: Sunday, October 3, 2021
  • Venue: Gillette Stadium
  • Location: Foxboro, Massachusetts
  • TV-Time: NBC - 8:20 p.m. ET

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 2-1
  • ATS: 1-2
  • O/U: 3-0
  • ATS - Home: 1-1
  • ATS - Away: 0-1

After taking down Kansas City in last year’s Super Bowl, the Buccaneers appeared to keep that same train chugging through the opening weeks of the new season, as Tampa Bay jumped out to a perfect 2-0 start by posting solid wins over the Cowboys and Falcons to kick off the year.

Most of Tampa Bay’s defensive issues were swept under the rug during the first two weeks of the season – as Brady’s greatness, alone, ended up being enough to propel the Bucs’ to an early pair of wins, despite their defense surrendering 27 points per game across that time frame.

Tampa’s defense received a wake-up call from L. A. in Week 3 though, as Stafford and company hung 34 points on them in their latest affair (407 YDS) – so I expect to see the Bucs’ D bounce back against New England’s relatively unimposing offense this week.

New England Patriots Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 1-2
  • ATS: 1-2
  • O/U: 0-3
  • ATS - Home: 0-2
  • ATS - Away: 1-0

The Patriots’ have been somewhat underwhelming since selecting Mac Jones with the 15th overall pick in the latest draft, considering New England’s offense ranks 27 th in both scoring and yardage allowed per play across the first three weeks of action (18 PPG, 4.8 YPP).

Luckily though, Belichick still presides over matters on the opposing side of the script, which has resulted in New England adequately maintaining its elite defensive presence – as the Pats’ D currently ranks fifth in scoring and sixth in yardage per play (17 PPG, 4.7 YPP).

Elite defensive play, alone, might wind up giving New England with enough juice to edge talent-depleted offenses like the Jets and Dolphins – but to compete with powerhouses like Tampa Bay, Belichick will likely need to devise a strategy that warps Sunday night’s event into a low-scoring defensive battle.

Inside the Stats - Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Record: 2-1
  • Division Standing: 2nd - NFC South
  • Points Scored: 103
  • Points Allowed: 88
  • PS/G: 34.3 (1st)
  • PA/G: 29.3 (27th)

Inside the Stats - New England Patriots

  • Record: 1-2
  • Division Standing: 2nd - AFC East
  • Points Scored: 54
  • Points Allowed: 54
  • PS/G: 18 (26th)
  • PA/G: 17 (5th)

Key Players to Watch

  • TMB: Tom Brady - QB (97/141, 1,087 yards, 10 TD, 2 INT)
  • TMB: Chirs Godwin - WR (19 catches, 241 yards, 2 TD)
  • NWE: Mac Jones - QB (81/120, 737 yards, 2 TD, 3 INT)
  • NWE: Kendrick Bourne - WR (9 catches, 123 yards, TD)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New England Patriots Betting Conclusion

After dropping their first road matchup of the year in L. A. (34-24), the Buccaneers will travel to Foxborough as a touchdown-favorite over New England in this week’s highly anticipated Sunday Night Football showdown at Gillette Stadium.

Personally, I expect to see Tampa Bay grind out a victory in a relatively low-scoring defensive battle – or maybe Brady and the Bucs’ offense steal a win in the fourth quarter.

That being said, I’m ultimately placing faith in Belichick’s ability to wage chaos with his unique defensive strategies by taking the under on Sunday night – which is why I’m also backing Brady to throw an interception on that same notion.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New England Patriots Betting Trends

  • Tampa Bay has won 10 of its last 11 games.
  • Tampa Bay has gone OVER the point total in seven of its last nine road games.
  • New England has gone UNDER the point total in six of its last eight home games.
  • New England has failed to cover the spread in five of its last seven games.

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