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Last Updated Oct 08, 2021, 21:00 PM

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Predictions, Odds, Picks

Oct. 10, 2021
Michael Crosson
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

The fifth weekend of regular-season NFL action will conclude with a highly anticipated rematch of last year’s AFC Championship Game – as Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills will visit Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs for a primetime heavyweight bout on Sunday night.

Score Prediction: Chiefs 34, Bills 28

Best Bet: Chiefs -3

Best Bet: Patrick Mahomes (KNC/QB) Over 2.5 TDs

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Predictions

After falling just one game short of last year’s Super Bowl, the Bills stumbled out to a surprisingly underwhelming start to the new season – as Buffalo tallied just 16 points on 371 yards of total offense during their head-scratching loss to Pittsburgh in Week 1 (L, 23-16).

Since dropping their season opener though, the Bills’ offense has played phenomenal – highlighted by Allen and company yielding averages of 39.3 points and 415 total yards across Buffalo’s current three- game winning streak.

On the other hand, the Chiefs practically sleepwalked through the first few weeks of the new season, as Andy Reid’s squad entered their fourth matchup sitting at 1-2 – which was the first time Kansas City failed to start 3-0 since placing Mahomes at the helm.

The Chiefs were back and better than ever in Week 4 though, as Mahomes and company cooked the Eagles’ defense for 42 points on 471 total yards during the Kansas City’s commanding double-digit victory in Philly last Sunday (W, 42-30).

I’ll lay the points with the Chiefs here, as Buffalo somewhat breezed through its opening stretch of matchups against the Steelers, Dolphins, Texans, and Washington – so, traveling to Kansas City in prime-time should serve as a staggering change-of-pace for them.

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Odds

More Odds | Futures Odds


The Chiefs enter Sunday’s matchup favored by roughly a field goal over the visiting Bills – marking the first time Buffalo has been listed as an underdog this season.



The total for Sunday night’s event is stationed just north of OU 55 at most shops, which is the highest bar set for a matchup containing either of these teams so far this year.



Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Resources

  • Matchup: AFC East vs. AFC West
  • Date: Sunday, October 10, 2021
  • Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
  • Location: Kansas City, Missouri
  • TV-Time: NBC - 8:20 p.m. ET



Buffalo Bills Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 3-1
  • ATS: 3-1
  • O/U: 1-3
  • ATS - Home: 2-1
  • ATS - Away: 1-0

After going toe-to-toe with the Chiefs in last year’s AFC Championship Game, Buffalo entered its season- opener wielding incredibly lofty expectations – as the Bills hosted the Steelers as touchdown-favorites in their first matchup of the new season.

Those high expectations quickly plummeted after losing to Pittsburgh though, as the Bills set sail for Miami favored by just a field goal ahead their second matchup of the year (BUF -3).

The oddsmakers won’t mistakenly undervalue Buffalo again though, as the Bills thumped Miami by 35 in Week 2 – which was rewarded with a pair of steep favorite-tags in their next two affairs (WAS +7, HOU +19).

Kansas City Chiefs Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 2-2
  • ATS: 1-3
  • O/U: 3-1
  • ATS - Home: 0-2
  • ATS - Away: 1-1

<p.Over the last few years, the Chiefs have become somewhat notorious for starting slow in individual matchups – but for the first time, their overall record actually reflects some early lapses, considering Kansas City opened with a 4-0 record in three straight seasons before starting the current season 2-2.

To be fair though, the Chiefs’ schedule has been absolutely ruthless thus far, considering Kansas City was forced to square off with the Browns, Ravens, Chargers, and Eagles prior to this Sunday’s highly anticipated AFC Championship rematch – so, Mahomes and company should be well-rehearsed for another heavyweight showdown.

Inside the Stats - Buffalo Bills

  • Record: 3-1
  • Division Standing: 1st - AFC East
  • Points Scored: 134
  • Points Allowed: 44
  • PS/G: 33.5 (2nd)
  • PA/G: 11 (1st)

Inside the Stats - Kansas City Chiefs

  • Record: 2-2
  • Division Standing: 4th - AFC West
  • Points Scored: 134
  • Points Allowed: 125
  • PS/G: 33.5 (2nd)
  • PA/G: 31.3 (31st)

Key Players to Watch

  • BUF: Josh Allen - QB (99/157, 1,055 yards, 9 TD, 2 INT)
  • BUF: Stefon Diggs - WR (26 catches, 305 yards, TD)
  • KNC: Patrick Mahomes - QB (102/141, 1,207 yards, 14 TD, 4 INT)
  • KNC: Tyreek Hill - WR (30 catches, 453 yards, 4 TD)

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Conclusion

After picking up a dominant road victory in Philadelphia last week, the Chiefs head into Week 5 favored by a field goal over the visiting Bills – marking the shortest number Kansas City has been favored by this season.

I’ll lay the points with Kansas City here, as Buffalo’s defense hasn’t been challenged by an elite quarterback in weeks, as the Bills currently boast consecutive wins over squads led by Jacoby Brissett, Taylor Heinicke, and Davis Mills – which is why I’m also backing Mahomes to make it five straight games with three or more touchdown passes.

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Trends

  • Kansas City has failed to cover the spread in 13 of its last 15 games.
  • Kansas City has won 16 of its last 19 home games.
  • Kansas City has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight home games.
  • Buffalo has gone UNDER the point total in four of its last six games.
  • Buffalo has won four of its last five road games.


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