Miami Dolphins vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Predictions, Odds, Picks

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

4 minute read

Oct. 10, 2021

Stuart Durst
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

The battle for who gets control of the Florida bragging rights takes place between the two relevant Florida teams, the Buccaneers and Dolphins. The Buccaneers are coming into this game with a huge win on national television where they took down the New England Patriots. The Dolphins on the other hand, are coming in after a couple tough losses to the Raiders and Colts.

Score Prediction: Buccaneers 30, Miami 20

Best Bet: Dolphins Over 8.5 2H

Best Bet: Jacoby Brissett (IND/QB) Over 36.5 Completions

Miami Dolphins vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Predictions

Overall the Dolphins will most likely spend a lot of this game trailing and with their lack of offensive firepower I doubt it's gonna be easy to stay with the Buccaneers. I like their second half over because they should be trailing and 9 points or more in the second half isn't much to ask for. Brain Flores is a good coach and I trust him to put this outmatched Dolphins team in the best situation possible. This game won't be pretty but it may surprise some people.

Overall I'm fairly confident this Buccaneers team wins with a lot of hassle. The Dolphins will do their best to keep it a relatively close game but at the end of the day it's not gonna matter too much. Buccaneers are in need of a nice blowout and I think this could be the spot.

Miami Dolphins vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Odds

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Miami Dolphins vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Resources

Matchup: AFC East vs. NFC South
Date: Sunday, October 10, 2021
Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Location: Tampa, Florida
TV-Time: CBS - 1:00 p.m. ET

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Miami Dolphins Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

SU: 1-3
ATS: 2-2
O/U: 2-2
ATS - Home: 0-2
ATS - Away: 2-0

The biggest thing this Dolphins team struggles with is their lack of explosive offensive plays. They have talented players like Jaylen Waddle, Mike Gesicki, Devante Parker, and Myles Gaskin but this team can't figure out how to run a coherent offense.

With starter Tua Tagovailoa out this week, backup Jacoby Brissett will continue to manage the game. He has done a fine job of controlling the clock and not turning the ball over but he has a lot of trouble moving the ball down the field. The Dolphins running game hasn't been scary so far this season and it likely won't be this week. The Buccaneers have been the best run defense in the league over the past couple seasons and that hasn't changed this year.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

SU: 3-1
ATS: 1-3
O/U: 3-1
ATS - Home: 1-1
ATS - Away: 0-2

Not much to say in this matchup really. On offense this team is significantly better than the Dolphins. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Antonio Brown go toe-to-toe with any single wide receiver core in the league. This is an extremely talented skill position group that should put them at a huge advantage over the Dolphins. On defense they have the best run stopping unit in the league and will likely shut down Gaskin/Brown.

No team has even tried to run on the Buccaneers this season and that's probably the smart thing to do. That being said, they have some very injured cornerbacks and are lacking a lot of starters in the secondary. The Dolphins definitely aren't the scariest offense in the league but that secondary is gonna be something to monitor, if a team like the Dolphins can take care of them then that's a big red flag.

The Miami Dolphins have seen the point total go OVER in four of its last six games. (AP)

Inside the Stats - Miami Dolphins

Record: 1-3
Division Standing: 2nd - AFC East
Points Scored: 62
Points Allowed: 109
PS/G: 15.5 (31st)
PA/G: 27.3 (25th)

Inside the Stats - Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Record: 3-1
Division Standing: 1st - NFC South
Points Scored: 122
Points Allowed: 105
PS/G: 30.5 (5th)
PA/G: 26.3 (23rd)

Key Players to Watch

MIA: Jacoby Brissett - QB (76/119, 583 yards, 2 TD, INT)
MIA: Jaylen Waddle - WR (25 catches, 200 yards, TD)
TMB: Tom Brady - QB (119/184, 1,356 yards, 10 TD, 2 INT)
TMB: Chris Godwin - WR (22 catches, 296 yards, 2 TD)

Miami Dolphins vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Conclusion

For prop betting look at Brissett's completions line, as he's hit 36.5 in two of three games as the starter and will continue to play from behind. Opposing QBs always go over on props because the Tampa run defense is so good it forces them to throw the ball a lot. Four of the four opposing QBs for Tampa Bay have hit this number so far.

Miami Dolphins vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Trends

Tampa Bay has won 11 of its last 12 games.
Miami has covered the spread in seven of its last eight when playing as the underdog.
Tampa Bay has gone OVER the point total in 10 of its last 12 home games when playing as the favorite.

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