Last Updated Oct 08, 2021, 11:00 PM

New England Patriots vs. Houston Texans Predictions, Odds, Picks

Oct. 10, 2021
Kevin Rogers
VI Betting Expert

Score Prediction: New England 20, Houston 13

Best Bet: Houston +8

Best Bet: Under 39.5

New England Patriots vs. Houston Texans Predictions

It's tough to make a case for the Patriots as this heavy of a favorite, while backing the Texans is a risky proposition with their lack of offense.

Houston can't have any worse of a performance than last week's 40-point defeat at Buffalo, while New England is coming off a tough two-point loss to Tampa Bay last Sunday night.

This is more of a fade of New England here as the Pats will be worth backing soon, but not right now as this price as a road favorite.

New England Patriots vs. Houston Texans Betting Odds

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New England Patriots vs. Houston Texans Betting Resources

  • Matchup: AFC East vs. AFC South
  • Date: Sunday, October 10, 2021
  • Venue: NRG Stadium
  • Location: Houston, Texas
  • TV-Time: CBS - 1:00 p.m. ET

New England Patriots Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 1-3
  • ATS: 2-2
  • O/U: 0-4
  • ATS - Home: 1-2
  • ATS - Away: 1-0

It's been a rough first quarter of the season for Bill Belichick's squad, who has one win, which came against the Jets, who were 0-3 prior to last week's overtime triumph against the Titans.

New England couldn't spoil Tom Brady's return to Gillette Stadium last Sunday night as the Patriots lost to the defending champion Buccaneers, 19-17. The Pats missed a long go-ahead field goal in the final minute, but New England did cash as a seven-point underdog.

The offense hasn't done much the last two weeks by scoring 30 points, while rookie quarterback Mac Jones has been intercepted four times in those losses to the Buccaneers and Saints.

The Pats have played only one road game so far, but it's where their lone victory of 2021 came from. New England routed New York at Met Life Stadium in Week 2 as 5.5-point favorites, 25-6. Belichick's domination of rookie quarterbacks continued as the Patriots' defense intercepted rookie Zach Wilson four times, as New England is a perfect 4-0 to the Under this season.

Houston Texans Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 1-3
  • ATS: 2-2
  • O/U: 2-2
  • ATS - Home: 1-1
  • ATS - Away: 1-1

The expectations weren't high on Houston entering the season considering franchise quarterback Deshaun Watson would be sidelined indefinitely due to legal issues.

The Texans pulled off a surprise in Week 1 by knocking off the Jaguars as three-point home underdogs behind veteran quarterback Tyrod Taylor, but the former Charger and Bill got hurt in a Week 2 defeat at Cleveland.

Former Stanford standout Davis Mills was thrust into the starting quarterback spot heading into Week 3 against Carolina, but the offense did nothing in a 24-9 home defeat. Things went from bad worse against Buffalo last week as Houston was blown out, 40-0 as 19-point underdogs, while picking up a shade above 100 yards offensively.

Inside the Stats - New England Patriots

  • Record: 1-3
  • Division Standing: 3rd - AFC East
  • Points Scored: 71
  • Points Allowed: 70
  • PS/G: 17.8 (27th)
  • PA/G: 17.5 (6th)

Inside the Stats - Houston Texans

  • Record: 1-3
  • Division Standing: 2nd - AFC South
  • Points Scored: 67
  • Points Allowed: 116
  • PS/G: 16.8 (29th)
  • PA/G: 29.0 (28th)

Key Players to Watch

  • NWE: Mac Jones - QB (112/160, 1,012 yards, 4 TD, 4 INT)
  • NWE: Jakobi Meyers - WR (27 receptions, 246 yards)
  • HOU: Mark Ingram II - RB (52 carries, 171 yards, TD)
  • HOU: Brandin Cooks - WR (28 receptions, 369 yards, TD)

New England Patriots vs. Houston Texans Betting Conclusion

Houston isn't going anywhere fast with Mills at quarterback, but the Texans have faced three teams with 3-1 records the last three weeks (Browns, Panthers, and Bills).

This is the second time the Texans are facing a rookie quarterback this season as they shut down top pick Trevor Lawrence in the opening week rout of Jacksonville.

New England Patriots vs. Houston Texans Betting Trends

  • Home team has won last six meetings in series since 2016
  • Texans have won and covered last two matchups, both as underdogs
  • Under 5-0 in Patriots' last five road games
  • Texans 3-7 SU in last 10 home games

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