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Last Updated Oct 08, 2021, 21:00 PM

Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Predictions, Odds, Picks

Oct. 10, 2021
Thom Cunningham
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

An AFC South battle sees the Jacksonville Jaguars host the Tennessee Titans for an early Sunday afternoon game. Kick off is set for 1:00 p.m. ET and will air on CBS from TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Florida.

Score Prediction: Titans 28, Jaguars 23

Best Bet: Over 48.5

Best Bet: Titans -4.5

Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Predictions

The Jaguars are 1-3 on both the ATS and the point total this season, as it's unlikely they cover both the spread and the point total going over. There is a lot of turmoil in the locker room right now with the Urban Meyerdistractions, but that actually might work in favor of the players performing better than expected.

The trends won't support that though, as Jacksonville has lost 19 straight games along with three straight when facing the Titans. Jacksonville has also failed to cover the spread in four straight home games, as the road team (Tennessee) has covered the last two games between both teams. There isn't a ton of conviction for taking the Jaguars this week, even after covering on Thursday Night Football against the Bengals.

Tennessee has gone OVER the point total in eight of its last nine games, a strong supporting trend that should see this game go OVER 48.5 despite the Jaguars at 1-3 on the O/U this season. Jacksonville only scores 18.5 points per game, but Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence is showing small improvements each week while the Titans allow four touchdowns per game which ranks 26th in the league.

Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Odds

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Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Resources

  • Matchup: AFC South
  • Date: Sunday, October 10, 2021
  • Venue: TIAA Bank Field
  • Location: Jacksonville, Florida
  • TV-Time: CBS - 1:00 p.m. ET



Tennessee Titans Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 2-2
  • ATS: 2-2
  • O/U: 2-2
  • ATS - Home: 1-1
  • ATS - Away: 1-1

Ryan Tannehill hasn't been performing bad this season, but he is more than capable of playing better than his somewhat average stats suggest. He is completing 63.6% of his passes with a 5:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. It feels like Derrick Henry will be the offensive threat in this game however, as the MVP-candidate is beginning to pick up some steam. He is currently averaging 4.5 yards per carry with four TDs.

Both A.J. Brown and Julio Jones have been underwhelming for the most part, each missing time already. The offense for Tennessee has been pretty sluggish to begin the season, compared to what they're capable of. They only score 23.8 points per game which ranks 14th in the NFL, and only convert 37.3% of third down plays which ranks 22nd in the league.

The loss to New York a week ago isn't one to hit the panic button over if you're a Tennessee fan or bettor, but a second straight week losing to arguably the worst team in the league would raise eyebrows for sure. Don't write off the Titans offense just yet, as Henry should have a field day and produce enough yards and points for the Titans to cover a relatively small spread.

The defense might actually be a bigger issue for Tennessee, allowing the 26th-most points per game. The irony is that the Titans defense has progressively gotten worse each year under Mike Vrabel, who was a linebacker. Tannehill actually has more fumble recoveries then the defense does, and he only has one fumble recovery.

Harold Landry and Olasunkanmi Adeniyi lead the team in sacks with just 2.5 each out of the team's eight total. The secondary does have two interceptions, as Kristian Fulton has one of those picks along with a team-high five pass deflections. Outside of he and Kevin Byard, there is a lot to worry about the lack of production from the defense.

If there was ever a game for this once hard-hitting defense to have a good game and produce takeaways, it would be against this Jaguars team. Although the defense has been bad, don't expect the Titans defense to allow a crazy offensive performance from Lawrence and the Jaguars. They might allow more than the Jaguars average per game (about 18), but the offense should be able to score enough points that the lack of takeaways and overall production of Tennessee's defense shouldn't matter in covering Sunday's spread.

Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 0-4
  • ATS: 1-3
  • O/U: 1-3
  • ATS - Home: 0-2
  • ATS - Away: 1-1

Jacksonville is a mess right now, and that's an understatement. These are professionals, so giving them the benefit of the doubt that they'll be ready Sunday should be warranted. However, it's tough for players to fully invest with Meyer on the sideline as he didn't fly back with the team. Perhaps if Jacksonville was more assertive in a new leader for this team, then buying into the thought that they 'rally' on Sunday would be fun to entertain.

The team historically struggles against Tennessee though, recently struggles against everyone and now playing a good team coming off a bad loss. The Titans defense, as discussed above, is susceptible to giving up points in this game. The Jaguars offense, however, won't be able to keep pace with Tennessee's offense no matter how poorly the Titan defense theoretically plays. The offense only averages 18.8 points per game so anything close to 30 points would be a huge achievement for a rookie QB-led team down their top receiver in D.J. Chark.

Both RB James Robinson and wide receiver Laviska Shenault, Jr. could have decent performances to keep Jacksonville within reach, while Marvin Jones is also a threat Tennessee will need to limit. Chark is out though, so the focus of this defense will be on those three players. Don't expect the Jaguars to catch Tennessee off guard following the Titans loss either.

Tennessee just lost to the Jets so they will be keen from the opening whistle to perform well. If they don't, then they're simply worse than anyone might have originally thought. The Jaguars defense will have a difficult time stopping Tennessee too, with only one takeaway on the season curiosity of a Andrew Wingard interception. As bad as Tennessee's defense has been this season, Jacksonville's has been worse.

Inside the Stats - Tennessee Titans

  • Record: 2-2
  • Division Standing: 1st - AFC South
  • Points Scored: 95
  • Points Allowed: 111
  • PS/G: 23.8 (14th)
  • PA/G: 27.8 (26th)

Inside the Stats - Jacksonville Jaguars

  • Record: 0-4
  • Division Standing: 4th - AFC South
  • Points Scored: 74
  • Points Allowed: 115
  • PS/G: 18.5 (26th)
  • PA/G: 28.8 (27th)

Key Players to Watch

  • TEN: Derrick Henry - RB (113 carries, 510 yards, 4 TD)
  • TEN: Ryan Tannehill - QB (96/151, 1,054 yards, 5 TD, 3 INT)
  • JAC: Trevor Lawrence - QB (81/142, 873 yards, 5 TD, 7 INT)
  • JAC: James Robinson - RB (49 carries, 238 yards, 3 TD)

Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Conclusion

Don't worry too much about the way Tennessee's defense is playing for this game, as they might allow over 20 but the low spread and firepower of Tennessee's offense should cover regardless. Too many trends support the Titans winning, as Jacksonville has failed to cover in four straight at TIAA Bank Field and three of its last four games this season.

The point total could go in either direction, but betting Tennessee and the OVER should see one hit at minimum. The Titans have gone OVER in eight of nine road games, which is the most consistent trend for this market outside of Jacksonville going UNDER in three of four this season. The spread has more conviction in betting on, but with both defenses allowing 27 points or more per game it's hard to argue the OVER here.

Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Trends

  • Tennessee has gone OVER in eight of its last nine road games.
  • Jacksonville has lost 19 straight games.
  • Tennessee has won four of its last five games when facing Jacksonville.
  • Jacksonville has failed to cover the spread in three of its last four games.


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