Last Updated Oct 09, 2021, 11:00 PM

Indianapolis Colts vs. Baltimore Ravens Predictions, Odds, Picks

Monday Night Video Best Bet

Oct. 11, 2021
Michael Crosson
VI Betting Expert

The fifth week of regular-season NFL action will conclude with a Monday night AFC showdown – as Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens will be seeking a fourth straight victory as they play host to Carson Wentz and the Indianapolis Colts. Coverage begins at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Score Prediction: Ravens 24, Colts 18

Best Bet: Under 45

Best Bet: Lamar Jackson (BAL/QB) Over 62.5 Rushing Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs. Baltimore Ravens Predictions

After dramatically shuffling around their quarterback situation during the offseason, the Colts experienced a few weeks of growing pains while settling into their updated offensive system – as Indianapolis generated just 18.7 PPG across its opening trio of losses against the Seahawks, Rams, and Titans.

In their latest matchup against Miami though, the Colts bounced back in a big way, as the Indy’s defense surrendered just 17 points on 203 total yards to the Dolphins last week – while Indy’s offense tallied a season-high 27 points on 349 total yards during the event (W, 27-17).

On the other hand, Baltimore also stumbled out to a somewhat frustrating start to the new year, as the Ravens entered their primetime season-opener leading the Raiders by a touchdown (17-10) – and then dropped the game in heartbreaking fashion in overtime (L, 33-27).

Baltimore flipped the script much faster than Indianapolis could though, as the Ravens knocked off Kansas City in a thrilling shootout in primetime the following week (W, 36-35) – followed by two more victories as their defense smothered Detroit and Denver to just 12 PPG across Weeks 3 and 4.

I’ll take the Under here, as the Ravens’ front-seven should have a field day on Monday night against Indy’s ailing O-line – while Baltimore’s ground attack may also slightly struggle against a Colts’ rush defense that ranked first in yards allowed per attempt last season (3.8 YPA).

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Indianapolis Colts vs. Baltimore Ravens Betting Odds

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The Ravens enter Monday night’s event favored by roughly a touchdown over the visiting Colts – marking the heftiest underdog-tag given to Indianapolis this year so far.

The total for Monday’s contest is stationed just north of OU 45 at most shops, which is just the second time the total for a Ravens’ game has been set below OU 50 this year – and the fifth straight for the Colts with a total set below OU 50.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Baltimore Ravens Betting Resources

  • Matchup: AFC South vs. AFC North
  • Date: Monday, October 11, 2021
  • Venue: M&T Bank Stadium
  • Location: Baltimore, Maryland
  • TV-Time: ESPN - 8:15 p.m. ET

Indianapolis Colts Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 1-3
  • ATS: 2-2
  • O/U: 2-2
  • ATS - Home: 1-1
  • ATS - Away: 1-1

After acquiring Wentz from the Eagles back in February, the Colts might have been the most fascinating topic of discussion as the season approached, considering Indy head coach Frank Reich finally got his old signal-caller back – but Wentz previously hit a steep decline following the departure of his OC.

Since the trade though, Wentz just hasn’t made the Colts much better, as Indy’s offense currently ranks 21st in scoring and 26th in yards gained per pass attempt (20.8 PPG, 6.6 YPA) – which typically doesn’t cut it against top-tier squads like the Ravens.

Baltimore Ravens Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 3-1
  • ATS: 2-2
  • O/U: 2-2
  • ATS - Home: 1-0
  • ATS - Away: 1-2

Despite suffering some crucial absences on defense, Baltimore heads into Week 5 just a few snaps short of boasting an undefeated record, as the Ravens’ only loss came in a thrilling overtime matchup against the Raiders – and Baltimore entered the fourth quarter of that matchup leading by seven.

The Ravens have been virtually flawless since dropping their season-opener though, considering Baltimore posted consecutive wins over the Chiefs, Lions, and Broncos across the last three weeks – and I doubt Indy will be the team that ultimately brews the most trouble for them.

Inside the Stats - Indianapolis Colts

  • Record: 1-3
  • Division Standing: 3rd - AFC South
  • Points Scored: 83
  • Points Allowed: 97
  • PS/G: 20.8 (22nd)
  • PA/G: 24.3 (17th)

Inside the Stats - Baltimore Ravens

  • Record: 3-1
  • Division Standing: 2nd - AFC North
  • Points Scored: 105
  • Points Allowed: 92
  • PS/G: 26.3 (8th)
  • PA/G: 23.0 (11th)

Key Players to Watch

  • IND: Carson Wentz - QB (88/138, 920 yards, 5 TD, INT)
  • IND: Zach Pascal - TE (15 catches, 156 yards, 3 TD)
  • BAL: Lamar Jackson - QB (75/124, 1,077 yards, 4 TD, 3 INT)
  • BAL: Marquise Brown - WR (19 catches, 326 yards, 3 TD)

Indianapolis Colts vs. Baltimore Ravens Betting Conclusion

Personally, I like the Under here, as meetings between these two franchises typically result in low-scoring, ground-and-pound battles– but ultimately, Baltimore should prevail behind the creative versatility of its dual-threat quarterback, which is why I’m also taking Lamar’s rushing yards over in Monday’s event.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Baltimore Ravens Betting Trends

  • Over 7-3 in Colts' last 10 road games
  • Under 8-0 in last eight meetings
  • Ravens 6-2 last eight games as favorite

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