Buffalo Bills vs. Tennessee Titans Predictions, Odds, Picks

Oct. 18, 2021
Michael Crosson
VI Betting Expert

The sixth week of regular-season NFL action will conclude with a heavyweight AFC showdown in Nashville, as Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills will square off against Derrick Henry and the Tennessee Titans on Monday night. Coverage begins at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Score Prediction

Bills 32, Titans 24

Best Bets

Bills -5.5

Zack Moss Anytime TD +205

Buffalo Bills vs. Tennessee Titans Predictions

After falling to the Chiefs in last year’s AFC Championship Game, Buffalo stumbled out to a somewhat perplexing start to the new season, as the Bills outgained Pittsburgh by nearly 120 yards in Week 1 (371- 252 TOT YDS) – but the Steelers still escaped with a narrow 23-16 victory.

Since dropping their season-opener though, Buffalo has been virtually unstoppable in all phases, considering the Bills’ offense racked up 39 points per game across four consecutive wins in Weeks 2 through 5 – while their defense surrendered just 10.3 PPG across that same window.

On the other hand, Tennessee also experienced a somewhat head-scratching start to the year, considering the Titans enter Week 6 boasting a trio of convincing wins over the Seahawks, Colts, and Jaguars (+30) – yet they also own a pair of disappointing losses to the Jets and Cardinals (-28).

Tennessee’s early blunders don’t come as a total surprise though, considering the Titans’ defense currently ranks 24 th in scoring and 21 st in total yardage (26 PPG, 377.4 YPG) – which makes them occasionally vulnerable to shocking upsets, such as their loss to the Jets.

I’ll lay the hefty total with Buffalo here, as Josh Allen and company shouldn’t have much trouble moving the ball consistently against Tennessee’s incredibly porous defensive unit – and the Titans’ passing attack is no match for the Bills’ if they get caught in a shootout.

Buffalo Bills vs. Tennessee Titans Betting Odds

More Odds | Futures Odds

The Bills head into Monday’s event nearly favored by a touchdown over the Titans at Nissan Stadium – marking the first time Tennessee has been an underdog at home this season.

The total for Monday’s night’s bout is currently stationed around OU 54 at most shops, which ties the highest number set for a Titans’ game so far this year – and ranks as the second-highest number assigned for the Bills.

Buffalo Bills vs. Tennessee Titans Betting Resources

  • Matchup: AFC East vs. AFC South
  • Date: Monday, October 18, 2021
  • Venue: Nissan Stadium
  • Location: Nashville, Tennessee
  • TV-Time: ESPN - 8:20 p.m. ET

Bet in Tennessee
Bet in New Jersey
Bet in New Hampshire
Bet in Canada
Other Betting States

Buffalo Bills Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 4-1
  • ATS: 4-1
  • O/U: 2-3
  • ATS - Home: 2-1
  • ATS - Away: 2-0

After dropping their season-opener against Pittsburgh, the oddsmakers somewhat jumped off the Bills’ bandwagon ahead of their Week 2 matchup against the Dolphins – considering Buffalo traveled to Miami favored by just a field goal, and they ended up thumping Jacoby Brissett and company 35-0.

The books won’t make that same mistake again though, considering Buffalo was tagged as massive favorites over both Houston (HOU +19.5) and Washington (WAS +7.5) – yet the Bills still covered both those spreads rather easily.

Tennessee Titans Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 3-2
  • ATS: 3-2
  • O/U: 3-2
  • ATS - Home: 1-1/li>
  • ATS - Away: 2-1

Through the first five weeks of the season, Tennessee has been incredibly tough for bettors to read, considering the Titans have already lost twice as a favorite (ARI +2.5, NYJ +5.5) – and won the only time they were listed as underdogs (SEA +6.5).

Tennessee’s overtime victory against Seattle seemed somewhat fluky though, and if the Titans ended up losing that game and entered Week 6 sitting at 2-3 instead of 3-2 – Buffalo would probably be favored by a full-touchdown as opposed to the 5-6-point-total that currently stands.

Derrick Henry has scored 2 or more TDs in five of his last eight regular season games as the underdog. (AP)

Inside the Stats - Buffalo Bills

  • Record: 4-1
  • Division Standing: 1st - AFC East
  • Points Scored: 172
  • Points Allowed: 64
  • PS/G: 34.4 (1st)
  • PA/G: 12.8 (1st)

Inside the Stats - Tennessee Titans

  • Record: 3-2
  • Division Standing: 1st - AFC South
  • Points Scored: 132
  • Points Allowed: 130
  • PS/G: 26.4 (10th)
  • PA/G: 26 (24th)

Key Players to Watch

  • BUF: Josh Allen - QB (114/183, 1,370 yards, 12 TD, 2 INT)
  • BUF: Stefon Diggs - WR (28 catches, 374 yards, TD)
  • TEN: Ryan Tannehill - QB (110/173, 1,251 yards, 6 TD, 3 INT)
  • TEN: Derrick Henry - RB (142 carries, 640 yards, 7 TD)

Buffalo Bills vs. Tennessee Titans Betting Conclusion

After thumping Kansas City in prime-time last week (W, 38-20), the Bills will visit Nashville on Monday night favored by nearly a touchdown over the Titans at Nissan Stadium – marking the first time Tennessee has been a home underdog this season.

Personally, I’m rolling with the Bills here, as I doubt Tennessee’s passing attack will be able to keep pace with Buffalo’s top-ranked scoring offense throughout Monday’s affair (34.4 PPG) – which is why I’m also backing Bills’ RB Zack Moss to punch in his fourth touchdown of the year at plus odds in this matchup.

Buffalo Bills vs. Tennessee Titans Betting Trends

  • Tennessee has gone OVER the point total in 10 of its last 14 games.
  • Tennessee has lost four of its last six home games.
  • Buffalo has covered the spread in four of its last five games.
  • Buffalo has gone OVER the point total in eight of its last 11 road games.

Where to place a bet this NFL Season?

  • Use our exclusive BetMGM Bonus Code VIBONUS1500 to unlock BetMGM’s welcome offer for new sportsbook users!
  • Compare the latest NFL Odds from the best sportsbooks before placing a bet on this week's games.
  • Check out the North Carolina Sportsbooks just before they launch legal online sports betting.