Atlanta Falcons vs. Miami Dolphins Predictions, Odds, Picks

Oct. 24, 2021
Stuart Durst
VI Betting Expert

The Atlanta Falcons head to Miami to take on the Dolphins for a Sunday afternoon game. Kick off is set for 1:00 p.m. ET and will air on FOX from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida.

Score Prediction

Falcons 24, Dolphins 20

Best Bets

Falcons -2.5

Atlanta Falcons vs. Miami Dolphins Predictions

A tale of two teams that came into the season with relatively high expectations but haven't fulfilled them yet. The Dolphins are currently fourth in the AFC East, behind the Jets, and just gave the Jaguars their first, and probably only, win. The Falcons are playing in a tougher division but have really looked unimpressive so far this season. While the 1:00 p.m. slate is populated with games that don't have practically close slates, we get a game that's projected to be within a field goal.

I'm tired of betting on the Dolphins this season. It's seemingly every week that I'm a sucker for Brain Flores and the potential that this defense possesses. The Falcons haven't looked good this season but they also historically come out of their bye week strong. While I don't traditionally subscribe to trends like that, Arthur Smith is a good coach and should get this offense looking right.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Odds

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Atlanta Falcons vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Resources

  • Matchup: NFC South vs. AFC East
  • Date: Sunday, October 24, 2021
  • Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
  • Location: Miami Gardens, Florida
  • TV-Time: FOX - 1:00 p.m. ET

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Atlanta Falcons Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 2-3
  • ATS: 2-3
  • O/U: 3-2
  • ATS - Home: 1-2
  • ATS - Away: 1-1

The good thing about the Falcons is we already know their strengths and weaknesses. Their defense isn't good, and hasn't been for years, but that's not why they’re losing games. They’re losing games because their offense has been completely out of sync this season. Matt Ryan is a reliable veteran quarterback but he really hasn't impressed anyone so far.

I'm not really sure what the excuse for having Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts on an offense that doesn't produce is. Pitts is one of the best pure tight end prospects we’ve seen in decades and it took a London game without Ridley for him to finally get involved. Ridley is someone I, and the majority of the fantasy football community, were extremely high on coming into the season but has disappointed this season. He's facing different forms of double coverage with a lot of safety help in almost every game.

The lack of a run game is also interesting, as Smith surly misses Derrick Henry. Mike Davis was serviceable last season and Patterson is actually starting to break out this year - in the receiving game at least. Overall, this Falcons team will just need to move the ball on the Dolphins to secure the win, as this Dolphins defense can't stop anyone and likely won't be able to keep up with the Falcons.

Miami Dolphins Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 1-5
  • ATS: 2-4
  • O/U: 3-3
  • ATS - Home: 0-2
  • ATS - Away: 2-2

This Dolphins team has really disappointed me. I loved the idea of a strong defensive team full of secondary talent, but they haven't been able to stop anyone. While injuries have played a factor, especially with Byron Jones and Xavien Howard, the lack of depth is alarming. I had a lot of faith in Flores coming into the season, enough to bet him for Coach of the Year, but he's done nothing to prove me right.

This offense has stagnated and a lot of that can be attributed to quarterback problems with both Tua and Brissett. The rumors of trades involving Deshaun Watson have picked up this week for good reason, as Watson is one of the best quarterbacks in the league and would surely elevate this team. Until then, this team is going to need to figure out a way to more efficiently move the ball down the field.

Every week I write about this Dolphins team I say the same thing, the lack of explosive/big plays is killing them. Nobody is scared of this team burning them deep, so safeties are continually cheating up making it even harder for Tua. Maybe the injury to Will Fuller is hurting them more than we think, but the lack of a run game definitely doesn't help one bit.

The Atlanta Falcons have covered the spread in five of their last six games when facing the AFC. (AP)

Inside the Stats - Atlanta Falcons

  • Record: 2-3
  • Division Standing: 4th - NFC South
  • Points Scored: 105
  • Points Allowed: 148
  • PS/G: 21 (22nd)
  • PA/G: 29.6 (31st)

Inside the Stats - Miami Dolphins

  • Record: 1-5
  • Division Standing: 4th - AFC East
  • Points Scored: 99
  • Points Allowed: 177
  • PS/G: 16.5 (29th)
  • PA/G: 29.5 (29th)

Key Players to Watch

  • ATL: Matt Ryan - QB (141/204, 1,332 yards, 10 TD, 3 INT)
  • ATL: Cordarrelle Patterson - RB (41 carries, 468 total yards, 5 Total TD)
  • MIA: Tua Tagovailoa - QB (50/78, 544 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT)
  • MIA: Jaylen Waddle - WR (37 catches, 301 yards, 3 TD)

Atlanta Falcons vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Conclusion

If I had to bet one prop in this game it would probably be 'Ridley Over Receiving Yards'. This opened up in the low 70’s but has moved to 75 since then. While this is definitely high for a player that has disappointed I trust that Aurther Smith has improved this team over the course of the bye week. It's a huge advantage to have this early in the season and alot of the reason I'm betting this game.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Trends

  • Miami has lost five straight games.
  • Miami has gone OVER the point total in five straight Week 7 games.
  • Atlanta has covered the spread in five of its last six games when facing the AFC.

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