Dallas Cowboys vs. Kansas City Chiefs Predictions, Odds, Picks

Nov. 21, 2021
Dan Dobish
VI Betting Expert

The Dallas Cowboys (7-2) travel to meet the Kansas City Chiefs (6-4) in a Week 11 AFC-NFC showdown at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed on FOX.

Score Prediction

Cowboys 35, Chiefs 29

Best Bets

Cowboys +120 ML

Cowboys +2.5 (-105)

OVER 55.5 (-110)

First-half OVER 27.5 (-110)

Dallas Cowboys vs. Kansas City Chiefs Predictions

The Cowboys were dumped 30-16 against the Denver Broncos in Week 9, losing at home as 10.5-point underdogs. That appears to have served as a wake-up call, as QB Dak Prescott and the Cowboys rolled up a 43-3 win against the Atlanta Falcons last weekend. The defense was easily at its best, as the previous low in points allowed was 16, in a win at Minnesota on Sunday Night Football in Week 8.

Nothing has been wrong with the Cowboys offense. Dallas has scored 35 or more points in five of the past seven games, and six of the past seven with Prescott under center. The Cowboys posted 114 rushing yards and 317 passing yards in the thumping of the Falcons, and they had 22 first downs to just 11 in the rout. One thing that the Cowboys need to work on is discipline, as they had eight penalties for 80 yards. One thing that doesn't need work is red-zone efficiency, as they were a perfect 5-for-5. The goal-to-go efficiency was also a perfect 2-for-2, while they dominated time of possession at 37:41 to 22:19.

The Chiefs looked like themselves last week in Las Vegas, spanking the Raiders 41-14. Las Vegas managed just 15 first downs to 29 for Kansas City, while the Chiefs amassed 516 total yards to just 299 for the Raiders. The Chiefs were 3-for-4 in red-zone efficiency, and 3-for-3 in goal-to-go efficiency. They protected Mahomes well, too, as he didn't have a hair mussed on his head, sacked zero times.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Odds

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Dallas Cowboys vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Resources

  • Matchup: NFC East vs. AFC West
  • Date: Sunday, November 21, 2021
  • Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
  • Location: Kansas City, Missouri
  • TV-Time: FOX - 4:25 p.m. ET

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Dallas Cowboys Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 7-2
  • ATS: 8-1
  • O/U: 5-4
  • ATS - Home: 4-1
  • ATS - Away: 4-0

The Cowboys have been a friend to bettors all season, sans the Denver game. Dallas has the best record in the NFL, in terms of covers, at 8-1 ATS. The UNDER is also on a 3-0 run, allowing just 16.3 PPG across the past three outings. Normally it's about the OVER for Dallas, though, as the offense ranks No. 1 in the NFL with total yards (433.9) and points scored (31.6), and they're fourth in the league in both passing yards (294.3) and rushing yards (139.6) per game.

Dallas has posted a 4-0 ATS mark in four road games, while going 5-0 ATS in the past five game as an underdog, 4-1 ATS in the past five as a road underdog. While all of those numbers are well and good, the Cowboys are just 5-11 ATS in the past 16 games against teams with a winning record, and they'll have to negotiate the Chiefs defense without WR Amari Cooper, as he is on the COVID list and will not be available on Sunday.

As far as the totals, the UNDER is a whopping 16-5 in the past 21 games for the Cowboys on the road against teams with a winning home record. The OVER is 5-2 in the past seven as an underdog, while going 7-3 in the past 10 following a straight-up victory.

Kansas City Chiefs Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 6-4
  • ATS: 3-7
  • O/U: 5-5
  • ATS - Home: 0-5
  • ATS - Away: 3-2

The Chiefs finally got back on track, and they will try and use that momentum at home as they search for their first cover of the season on the home field. The Chiefs have played five games at home so far this season, and Kansas City has failed to cover any of the outings.

Kansas City has managed a 5-15 ATS mark in the past 20 as a favorite, 5-16 ATS in the past 21 games overall, and it is just 1-4 ATS in the past five against teams with a winning overall record. And, as hard as it is to believe, the Chiefs have covered just once in the past 11 games at Arrowhead, including 0-5 ATS in the past five as a home favorite. Kansas City hasn't followed up victories with a lot of success, at least against the number. The Chiefs are just 3-13 ATS in the past 16 games following a straight-up win, and they're 0-5 ATS in the past five after a cover in the previous game.

The UNDER is 4-1 across the past five games for the Chiefs, while going 4-1 in the past five for Kansas City as a favorite. And for what it's worth, the UNDER is 16-5 in the past 21 Week 11 games for the Chiefs for whatever reason.

The Dallas Cowboys are 8-1 ATS in nine games overall this season. (AP)

Inside the Stats - Dallas Cowboys

  • Record: 7-2
  • Division Standing: 2-0
  • Points Scored: 284
  • Points Allowed: 195
  • PS/G: 31.6
  • PA/G: 21.7

Inside the Stats - Kansas City Chiefs

  • Record: 6-4
  • Division Standing: 1-1
  • Points Scored: 262
  • Points Allowed: 241
  • PS/G: 26.2
  • PA/G: 24.1

Key Players to Watch

  • DAL: Dak Prescott - QB (201/286, 2,341 yards, 20 TD, 5 INT)
  • DAL: CeeDee Lamb - WR (47 catches, 726 yards, 6 TD)
  • KNC: Patrick Mahomes - QB (271/412, 2,940 yards, 25 TD, 10 INT)
  • KNC: Tyreek Hill - WR (75 catches, 855 yards, 8 TD)

Dallas Cowboys vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Conclusion

This is going to be an offensive showdown. Prescott and the Cowboys posted 35 or more points for the fifth time in nine games last week, and they're going to do it again in this one. The Chiefs finally re-discovered their mojo last week in Vegas, and they'll bring home confidence and use it as a springboard into this weekend's game.

While the Kansas City offense will be back, the defense has really struggled at home. The Chiefs have allowed 29, 30, 38, 17 and 7 at home through five games. The seven-point total by the Green Bay Packers can be mostly discarded, as QB Jordan Love was ill-prepared to start in place of Aaron Rodgers that week, and the Chiefs caught a break. And the 17 points was put up by the New York Giants, which is pretty good by their standards. The Chiefs defense has been better the past three games, but that's because they have faced some favorable circumstances. Facing Dak and the Cowboys isn't terribly favorable, although Kansas City does catch a break again with Cooper out at least. Still, Lamb, WR Michael Gallup, TE Dalton Schultz and Ezekiel Elliott give Dak plenty of other weapons in the arsenal.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Trends

  • The Cowboys are 8-1 ATS in the past nine games overall.
  • The Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in the past four road games.
  • The Chiefs are 5-16 ATS in the past 21 games overall.
  • The Chiefs are 1-10 ATS in the past 11 home games.
  • The Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in the past five against winning teams.
  • The UNDER is 16-5 in past 21 for Cowboys against teams with a winning home mark.
  • The UNDER is 4-1 in the past five games overall for the Chiefs.

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