Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions Predictions, Odds, Picks

Nov. 25, 2021
Dan Dobish
VI Betting Expert

The Chicago Bears (3-7) and Detroit Lions (0-9-1) kick off the three-game Thanksgiving Day slate for the first contest of Week 12. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:30 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed on FOX.

Score Prediction

Lions 21, Bears 18

Best Bets

Lions +145 ML

Lions +3 (-110)

Under 41 (-105)

Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions Predictions

The Bears enter on a five-game skid, and some unofficial reports surfaced that head coach Matt Nagy was informed that Thursday will be his last game at the helm. While he denied that he was told anything by management, it's odd that no one from the team's brass refuted these stories publicly, at least as of Tuesday evening, so perhaps where there is smoke, there is fire.

What was confirmed Tuesday is that QB Andy Dalton will make the start, his third of the season, with QB Justin Fields knocked out of last Sunday's 16-13 loss to the Baltimore Ravens due to an injury to his ribs. While X-rays were negative, and Nagy said Tuesday Fields is the starting QB once he is healthy again, it's a very fluid situation, as it might not even be Nagy's decision in a few days. Dalton sparked the team with two touchdown passes in the second half after Fields departed, but it wasn't enough.

To make matters worse for the Bears, they're without LB Khalil Mack, as he is done for the season due to foot surgery.

For the Lions, it sounds as if QB Jared Goff (oblique) will return to the lineup after a one-game absence. QB Tim Boyle started in his stead in Cleveland last Sunday and was a disaster, throwing for just 77 yards with two interceptions. RB D'Andre Swift ripped off a big touchdown run to keep the winless Lions in it, but they couldn't get over the hump.

These teams met each other in Week 4, with the Bears posted a 24-14 victory, the first of Fields' career, but unfortunately he won't be in there going for the sweep. The Bears covered the three-point number while hitting the UNDER.

Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions Betting Odds

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Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions Betting Resources

  • Matchup: NFC North
  • Date: Thursday, November 25, 2021
  • Venue: Ford Field
  • Location: Detroit, Michigan
  • TV-Time: FOX - 12:30 p.m. ET

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Chicago Bears Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 3-7
  • ATS: 4-6
  • O/U: 3-7
  • ATS - Home: 2-3
  • ATS - Away: 2-3

The Bears heads into Week 12 with just one cover across the past five games, and they haven't won outright since a 20-9 victory in Las Vegas against the Raiders at 5.5-point underdogs in Week 5. The reports Nagy might be let go aren't super surprising, it's just how it was announced.

This will be the fourth meeting between the Bears and Lions on Thanksgiving since 2014, and Chicago is just 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS in those three meetings. The OVER has connected in two of those three Turkey Day performances for the Bears.

Dalton is 1-1 as a starter this season, with the Bears also 1-1 ATS during the span. His only previous start on the road was against the Los Angeles Rams, which is a much bigger step up in competition than the Lions, that's for sure.

Detroit Lions Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 0-9-1
  • ATS: 6-4
  • O/U: 3-7
  • ATS - Home: 2-2
  • ATS - Away: 4-2

The Lions are winless through 10 games, although they won't be going 0-17 SU thanks to a 16-16 tie against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Lions have been playing hard for head coach Dan Campbell, and they have shown slight, slight improvement, especially on the defensive side of the ball.

The Lions haven't scored ore than 19 points in a single game since Week 1 when they dropped 33 on the San Francisco 49ers in Week 1. But the defense has shown improvement, allowing just 14.5 PPG in the past two games against the Browns and Steelers. Detroit has posted a 3-1 ATS mark across the past four games, and a respectable 6-4 ATS mark overall despite the ugly win-loss record straight-up.

Total bettors have been a big fan of the Honolulu Blue and Silver, as the UNDER is 7-1 across the past eight games for the Lions.

The Lions are a respectable 6-3 ATS across the past nine Thanksgiving Day games. (AP)

Inside the Stats - Chicago Bears

  • Record: 3-7
  • Division Standing: 1-1
  • Points Scored: 163
  • Points Allowed: 240
  • PS/G: 16.3
  • PA/G: 24.0

Inside the Stats - Detroit Lions

  • Record: 0-9-1
  • Division Standing: 0-3
  • Points Scored: 160
  • Points Allowed: 273
  • PS/G: 16.0
  • PA/G: 27.3

Key Players to Watch

  • CHI: David Montgomery - RB (96 rushes, 430 yards, 3 TD)
  • CHI: Darnell Mooney - WR (41 catches, 571, 3 TD)
  • DET: D'Andre Swift - RB (137 rushes, 555 yards, 6 total TDs)
  • DET: T.J. Hockenson - TE (54 catches, 499 yards, 2 TD)

Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions Betting Conclusion

This is it. It's Thanksgiving, we're in Detroit, and the Lions are expected to have their quarterback under center after missing a week. The Bears have had off-field distractions, with their head coach hanging by a thread, and their franchise quarterback nursing a painful rib injury on a short week. Fans in The D haven't had a lot to be thankful for, in terms of football, but they should be thankful for Swift and the Detroit offense, which is going to get it done and erase that goose egg in the win column.

Detroit has been coming oh-so-close, and really should have a handful of wins by now. The good news is that the young Lions have bought into the system of head coach Dan Campbell, and they are playing hard for him week in and week out. It's finally going to all work itself out.

Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions Betting Trends

  • The Bears are 1-4 ATS in the past five games overall.
  • The Bears are 3-8 ATS in the past 11 divisional games.
  • The Lions are 5-12-1 ATS in the past 18 November games.
  • The UNDER is 7-2 in the past nine games for the Bears.
  • The UNDER is 7-1 in the past eight games for the Lions.
  • The Bears are 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings vs. Lions.

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