Last Updated Dec 22, 2021, 10:38 AM

Atlanta Falcons vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Predictions, Odds, Picks

Nov. 28, 2021
Jonathan Willis
VI Betting Expert

Two struggling teams hit the field on Sunday afternoon as the Atlanta Falcons head further south to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars. Kick off is set for 1:00 p.m ET and will air on CBS from TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Florida.

Score Prediction

Jaguars 27, Falcons 23

Best Bets

Jaguars +2

Over 45

Atlanta Falcons vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Predictions

No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence hasn’t played very well as a rookie. Lawrence has had more than his fair share of struggles, but the Atlanta Falcons defense has proved very amenable to struggling quarterbacks. The Falcons have been outscored 68-3 in their last two games.

The Falcons have the benefit of a few extra days to prepare for this game after playing on Thursday Night Football last week. Their offense should perform better than we saw against either Dallas or New England, but Jacksonville should out-duel them as Lawrence is overdue for a quality performance.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Odds

More Odds | Futures Odds

Atlanta Falcons vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Resources

  • Matchup: NFC South vs. AFC South
  • Date: Sunday, November 28, 2021
  • Venue: TIAA Bank Field
  • Location: Jacksonville, Florida
  • TV-Time: CBS - 1:00 p.m. ET

Atlanta Falcons Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 4-6
  • ATS: 4-6
  • O/U: 5-5
  • ATS - Home: 1-4
  • ATS - Away: 3-2

Matt Ryan hasn’t been that effective without long-time receiver Julio Jones. Ryan is having the worst season of his 14-year NFL career. The offensive line has given him better protection than expected, but he is averaging just 6.9 YPA. He has thrown for just 270 yards with four interceptions in his last two starts.

Top receiver Calvin Ridley is still out for personal reasons, so the go- to target remains rookie tight end Kyle Pitts. This will be something of a homecoming for Pitts who played at nearby Florida, and he is hoping to find the end zone for just the second time this season. Pitts is averaging 14.8 YPR, leading the Falcons in this department.

Cordarrelle Patterson is considered questionable to play this week with an ankle injury. Patterson is the leading rusher on the Falcons (3.9 YPC), and he is the second leading receiver with 39 receptions for 473 yards and five touchdowns.

Atlanta’s defense ranks 31 st in scoring defense, allowing 28.8 PPG. Deion Jones is questionable to play with a shoulder injury, potentially depriving the Falcons of their second leading tackler. There isn’t a lot of talent on this side of the ball though.

Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 2-8
  • ATS: 4-6
  • O/U: 2-8
  • ATS - Home: 2-4
  • ATS - Away: 2-2

Lawrence has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns this season. Lawrence is completing just 58.4% of his passes for 6.0 YPA, and he has averaged 4.6 YPA or less in three of his last four games. The rookie quarterback hasn’t thrown a touchdown or an interception in his last three outings though.

James Robinson is averaging 5.1 YPC and has run for seven touchdowns this season. Robinson has only run for 108 yards over the last four weeks though. Carlos Hyde is only averaging 3.8 YPC, and Lawrence has not had the impact that some were expecting in the ground game. The quarterback was known as a scrambler in big games at Clemson, but he has only rarely showcased that at the next level.

Tight end Dan Arnold missed last week’s game against San Francisco, but he is expected to play this week. Arnold has been targeted at least seven times in each of his last three games, and he has had at least 60 receiving yards in each of those outings. Marvin Jones Jr. and Laviska Shenault Jr. are the other receivers to watch in this offense. Neither Jones nor Shenault is likely to finish with over 800 receiving yards, but they could have nice performances down the stretch if Lawrence starts taking steps forward.

Jacksonville’s defense isn’t too talented, but the Jaguars play tough. The front seven has done a decent job stopping the run, yet the cornerbacks have not fared too well on the perimeter. That would be a bigger problem against most teams, but Atlanta can’t punish these defensive backs as much.

Inside the Stats - Atlanta Falcons

  • Record: 4-6
  • Division Standing: 4th - NFC South
  • Points Scored: 178
  • Points Allowed: 288
  • PS/G: 17.8 (27th)
  • PA/G: 28.8 (31st)

Inside the Stats - Jacksonville Jaguars

  • Record: 2-8
  • Division Standing: 3rd - AFC South
  • Points Scored: 159
  • Points Allowed: 262
  • PS/G: 15.9 (30th)
  • PA/G: 26.2 (25th)

Key Players to Watch

  • ATL: Matt Ryan - QB (237/350, 2,427 yards, 15 TD, 10 INT)
  • ATL: Kyle Pitts - TE (43 catches, 635 yards, TD)
  • JAC: Trevor Lawrence - QB (208/356, 2,141 yards, 8 TD, 9 INT)
  • JAC: James Robinson - RB (112 carries, 568 yards, 7 TD)

Atlanta Falcons vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Conclusion

Lawrence will have his best game in over a month to lead Jacksonville to its third win of the season. Atlanta is struggling to score touchdowns and even if that turns around on Sunday, expect the better team to win which is surprisingly Jacksonville.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Trends

  • Jacksonville has lost 14 straight games when facing the NFC.
  • Jacksonville has gone UNDER the point total in eight of its last nine games.
  • Jacksonville has failed to cover the spread in six of its last seven home games.

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