Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos Predictions, Odds, Picks

Nov. 28, 2021
Dan Dobish
VI Betting Expert

The Los Angeles Chargers (6-4) and the Denver Broncos (5-5) clash in an important AFC West game in Week 12 at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed on CBS.

Score Prediction

Chargers 31, Broncos 23

Best Bets

Chargers -3 (-110)

Over 47.5 (-110)

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos Predictions

The Chargers have been a little Jekyll and Hyde lately. The Bolts won 41-37 against the Pittsburgh Steelers last week on Sunday night, bouncing back from a disappointing 27-20 loss at home against the Minnesota Vikings. Prior to that, the Chargers went cross-country, topping the Philadelphia Eagles 27-24 after a loss against the New England Patriots by the same exact score.

The Broncos have been equally difficult to figure. Denver lost 17-14 at Cleveland in Week 7 on a Thursday game against QB Case Keenum and a host of backups against the injured Browns. They returned home in Week 8 against topped Washington 17-10 in boring defensive game. So, of course they went to Dallas and fired out to a 30-0 lead before pulling off the 14-point win as a 10.5-point underdog. Did they build upon that momentum? No, they were smoked by the Philadelphia Eagles at home, losing 30-13. Again, welcome to the 2021 NFL season, where up is down, down is up, and you never know who is going to show up.

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos Betting Odds

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Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos Betting Resources

  • Matchup: AFC West
  • Date: Sunday, November 28, 2021
  • Venue: Empower Field at Mile High Stadium
  • Location: Denver, Colorado
  • TV-Time: CBS - 4:05 p.m. ET

Los Angeles Chargers Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 6-4
  • ATS: 5-5
  • O/U: 4-6
  • ATS - Home: 2-4
  • ATS - Away: 3-1

The Chargers will be glad to see a divisional foe, as the Bolts are a perfect 5-for-5 against the number in the past five games inside the division. They're also 4-1 ATS in the past five as a road favorite, and 33-16-3 ATS in the past 52 on the road.

The Chargers have failed to cover in two straight, and four of the past five overall. The last time L.A. failed to cover in three straight games was an 0-6 ATS skid from Nov. 1 through Dec. 6, 2020 last season, starting with a 31-30 loss at Denver in Week 8. Los Angeles responded with a 19-16 victory and cover as 2.5-point favorites at SoFi on Dec. 27 last season. The OVER is 6-1 in the past seven regular-season meetings in Denver between these teams.

As far as total this season, the OVER is 3-1 in the past four games for the Chargers, as they have scored 41, 20, 27 and 24 during the run, and the Chargers defense has coughed up 24 or more points in six straight games. In fact, L.A. is allowing 26.5 PPG to rank 27th in the NFL, and they're dead-last in the league with 145.1 rushing yards allowed, which is music to the ears of RBs Melvin Gordon III and Javonte Williams.

Denver Broncos Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 5-5
  • ATS: 5-5
  • O/U: 2-8
  • ATS - Home: 2-3
  • ATS - Away: 3-2

The Broncos have won just twice in the past seven games overall while also going 2-5 ATS during the span, and the UNDER has cashed in four in a row, and eight of 10 games overall. In fact, the 8-2 record to the UNDER is second-best in the NFL only to the Seattle Seahawks, who have had the UNDER cash in nine of 10 games overall.

This is just the second divisional game for the Broncos, and they hope it goes better than the first time. Denver was dropped 34-24 in Week 6 by the visiting Las Vegas Raiders, a rare OVER result. In fact, it's the last one for the Broncos. The rest of their schedule is backloaded with AFC West opponents, with five of the final seven games against AFC West foes.

The Broncos are just 7-16 ATS in the past 23 inside the division, although they're an impressive 15-7-1 ATS in the past 23 when coming off a bye. That's the beauty of the schedule, as they have had two weeks to prepare for this important divisional matchup.

The Chargers have covered five straight games inside the AFC West Division. (AP)

Inside the Stats - Los Angeles Chargers

  • Record: 6-4
  • Division Standing: 2-0
  • Points Scored: 260
  • Points Allowed: 265
  • PS/G: 26.0
  • PA/G: 26.5

Inside the Stats - Denver Broncos

  • Record: 5-5
  • Division Standing: 0-1
  • Points Scored: 200
  • Points Allowed: 183
  • PS/G: 20.0
  • PA/G: 18.3

Key Players to Watch

  • LAC: Justin Herbert - QB (261/394, 2,927 yards, 22 TD, 8 INT)
  • LAC: Austin Ekeler - RB (167 touches, 978 total yards, 13 total TDs)
  • DEN: Teddy Bridgewater - QB (222/321, 2,389 yards, 14 TD, 5 TD)
  • DEN: Melvin Gordon III - RB (118 rushes, 522 yards, 7 total TDs)

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos Betting Conclusion

This game is going to come down to a few key things. One, can Herbert and the pass attack deliver against the Broncos, who rank 10th in the NFL with 218.1 total yards per game? Can the Chargers rush defense, last in the NFL, shut down the Broncos two-headed rush monster of Gordon and Williams? And can the Denver offense hang with L.A. in the event this one becomes a high-scoring track meet like the Bolts seem to like?

I think the answer to the Chargers pass question is yes, Herbert will get his, and he has plenty of healthy targets. I think the Broncos run game will be stout, piling up plenty of yards against the beleaguered Bolts rush D. And, I think the Broncos will not be able to hang with the Chargers for a full 60 minutes, should this turn to a shootout. Advantage L.A.

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos Betting Trends

  • The Chargers are 5-0 ATS in the past five AFC West games.
  • The Chargers are 4-1 ATS in the past five as a road favorite.
  • The Broncos are 7-16 ATS in the past 23 AFC West games.
  • The Broncos are 2-5 ATS in the past seven games overall.
  • The OVER is 11-5 in the past 16 on the road for the Chargers.
  • The UNDER is 13-5-1 in the past 19 AFC West games for the Broncos.

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