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Last Updated Dec 22, 2021, 15:38 PM

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Indianapolis Colts Predictions, Odds, Picks

Nov. 28, 2021
Dan Dobish
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-3) hit the road to face the Indianapolis Colts (6-5) in a Week 12 AFC-NFC matchup at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed on FOX.

Score Prediction

Colts 33, Buccaneers 29

Best Bets

Colts +130 ML

Colts +3 (-110)

Over 52.5 (-110)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Indianapolis Colts Predictions

The Buccaneers lost a pair of road games in New Orleans and Washington. Coupled with the bye in Week 9, the Bucs went nearly a calendar month without a victory until spanking the injury-depleted New York Giants on Monday night in Week 11 to get untracked.

The Colts are coming off one of their most complete victories of the season, a stunning statement road win in Buffalo against the Bills. It's not so much that Indy won in Buffalo, it's how they did. The Colts gashed the Bills for 264 rushing yards and just 106 passing yards in the 41-15 victory. They dominated the time of possession category at 37:47 to 22:13, while committing just three penalties. The Colts only punted once in the game, too, and the pass protection was outstanding, as QB Carson Wentz wasn't sacked at all.

It's rare, but QB Tom Brady has a 2-3 SU record on the road this season, and the Buccaneers are a dismal 0-5 ATS in those games with an edge to the UNDER at 3-2.

The Colts started out 0-3 SU/1-2 ATS, but they're 6-2 SU/ATS across the past eight games, and their last loss in regulation was in Week 3 at Tennessee.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Odds

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Resources

  • Matchup: NFC South vs. AFC North
  • Date: Sunday, November 28, 2021
  • Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
  • Location: Indianapolis, Indiana
  • TV-Time: FOX - 1:00 p.m. ET

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 7-3
  • ATS: 4-6
  • O/U: 5-5
  • ATS - Home: 4-1
  • ATS - Away: 0-5

It's been a tale of two teams so far this season. The Buccaneers have been dominant at home, while struggling mightily on the road. The Bucs have won just twice in five tries on the road, beating the Eagles and Patriots, and only one of those road wins came on a Sunday.

Tampa Bay has also failed to cover in consecutive games this season. They're 0-3 ATS following a cover in the following week, while going 1-2 SU in those games. The OVER is also 2-1 in its three straight-up losses for the Bucs, allowing 33.0 PPG in those three games.

The Bucs have cashed the UNDER in four of the past five games after the OVER opened 4-1 in the first five outings. Against the AFC, the Bucs have split 1-1 SU/ATS and 1-1 in OVER/UNDER, too.

Indianapolis Colts Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

The Colts struggled to find their identity in the first month, as Wentz was making his way back from a training camp injury, and they weren't feeding Taylor the ball as much as they are now. In fact, he averaged just 14.0 carries across the first three games. Indy has leaned upon their star running back more lately, and it has paid off handsomely. The Colts have won five of the past six games, while going 4-2 ATS. They've also hit the OVER by going 4-1 in the past five.

The Indy offense is good for 41, 23, 34, 31, 30 and 31 across the past six outings. At home, the Colts opened 0-2 SU/1-1 ATS in two games against NFC West foes, but they have bounced back by going 3-1 SU/2-2 ATS in the previous four. Of course, those three wins are against the Jaguars, Jets and Texans, not exactly the cream of the crop, so this will be a huge measuring stick game for a Colts team which wants to go from just in the playoff picture to a bona fide contender. A win over a championship-caliber team like the Bucs would help.

The Colts enter just 1-6 ATS in the past seven as a home underdog, but 4-1 ATS in the past five against winning teams, 12-4-1 ATS in the past 17 at home against teams with a winning road record and 4-0 ATS in the past four as an underdog.

  • SU: 6-5
  • ATS: 7-4
  • O/U: 7-4
  • ATS - Home: 3-3
  • ATS - Away: 4-1

Inside the Stats - Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Record: 7-3
  • Division Standing: 1-1
  • Points Scored: 309
  • Points Allowed: 222
  • PS/G: 30.9
  • PA/G: 22.2

Inside the Stats - Indianapolis Colts

  • Record: 6-5
  • Division Standing: 2-2
  • Points Scored: 309
  • Points Allowed: 245
  • PS/G: 28.1
  • PA/G: 22.3

Key Players to Watch

  • TMB: Tom Brady - QB (284/423, 3,177 yards, 29 TD, 8 INT)
  • TMB: Mike Evans - WR (47 catches, 679 yards, 10 TD)
  • IND: Carson Wentz - QB (223/354, 2,484 yards, 18 TD, 3 INT
  • IND: Jonathan Taylor - RB (193 rushes, 1,122 yards, 13 TD)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Conclusion

The first thing to let to for the Bucs if their rushing defense. Tampa Bay is No. 1 in the NFL with just 78.4 yards per game allowed on the ground, so that's going to be huge against Taylor. Tampa's defense overall is impressive, allowing 22.2 PPG to rank 10th in the NFL. If they can be beaten regularly, it's via the air.

On offense, the Bucs rank No. 1 with 30.9 PPG, and 314.8 passing yards per game. However, WR Antonio Brown will miss a fifth consecutive game due to an ankle injury. The good news is that WR Mike Evans (back), who did not practice Wednesday or Thursday, was able to go full Friday and he is off the report. The Bucs could also get DT Vita Vea back from a knee injury, as he is questionable after being listed as out or doubtful in the past few outings. His addition would go a long way toward throwing a blanket on Taylor, and keeping the star back in check.

I still don't really care for what I've seen from the Bucs on the road, particularly against fellow contenders. And the Colts are playing better than anybody right now. I think Indy gets it done on their home turf.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Trends

  • The Buccaneers are 0-5 ATS in the past five road games.
  • The Buccaneers are 2-5 ATS in the past seven games overall.
  • The Colts are 6-2 ATS in the past eight games overall.
  • The Colts are 4-0 ATS in the past four games underdog.
  • The Colts are 1-6 ATS in the past seven as a home 'dog.
  • The UNDER is 4-1 in the past five games for the Bucs.
  • The UNDER is 4-1 in the past five for the Bucs as a favorite.
  • The OVER is 11-1 in the past 12 for the Colts against winning teams.


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