Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Predictions, Odds, Picks

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

6 minute read

Dec. 26, 2021

Dan Dobish
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

The Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6-1) and the Kansas City Chiefs (10-4) square off at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday for a key Week 16 battles. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed on CBS.

Score Prediction

Steelers 23, Chiefs 19

Best Bets

Steelers +310 ML at DraftKings

Steelers +8.5 (-110) at DraftKings

UNDER 45 (-110) at DraftKings

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Predictions

The Chiefs, like so many other teams, are dealing with a little bit of an issue with positive COVID-19 tests. PK Harrison Butker, TE Travis Kelce and CB Charvarius Ward went on the reserve/COVID list on Monday, while WR Tyreek Hill, OT Lucas Niang and OT Mike Remmers were the notables to join them on the list Tuesday into Wednesday. Butker is an unvaccinated player, so he will miss Sunday's game, replaced by Elliott Fry.

For the Steelers, LB Devin Bush would be a big miss, but other than that their reserve/COVID list doesn't have many notables. Advantage Pittsburgh, at least so far.

Pittsburgh has grinded out a couple of big-time wins at home in the past two home games, topping Baltimore 20-19 in Week 13, and Tennessee 19-13 in Week 15. It's the road where problems have occurred, as they were dusted 36-28 at Minnesota on a Thursday game in Week 14, and they were pounded 41-10 at Cincinnati in Week 12. In fact, Pittsburgh has dropped three in a row away from home.

Kansas City has won seven in a row, but that win streak will be put to the test with their reliable kicker Butker out, and the prospect Hill and Kelce could be on the sidelines. The last loss for the Chiefs came back on Oct. 24 in Week 7, a 27-3 setback at Tennessee. The last loss at home was Oct. 10 against the Buffalo Bills.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Odds

More Odds | Futures Odds

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Resources

• Matchup: AFC North vs. AFC West
• Date: Sunday, December 26, 2021
• Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
• Location: Kansas City, Missouri
• TV-Time: CBS - 4:25 p.m. ET

• Weather Report
• Injury Report
• Super Bowl 56 Betting

Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 7-6-1
• ATS: 6-8
• O/U: 5-9
• ATS - Away: 3-3

The Steelers head into this one alternating covers and non-covers across the past six games. The last cover on the road came Nov. 21 against the Los Angeles Chargers in a 41-37 shootout loss on Sunday night as a six-point underdog. Its last win came in Cleveland on Halloween, a low-scoring 15-10 victory as 5.5-point underdogs as the UNDER cashed. Pittsburgh covered last week, but it hasn't covered in consecutive games since the final two regular season of 2020 in Weeks 16-17 against Indianapolis at home and Cleveland on the road.

The Steelers are 0-6 ATS in the past six following a cover, in fact, while going 3-8 ATS in the past 11 games in the month of December. All of the trends aren't bad, however, as they're 5-1 ATS in the past six against teams with a winning record, and 13-6 ATS in the past 19 as a road underdog.

For totals, when the Steelers pack a suitcase, they usually pack some extra defense. The UNDER is 37-14-1 in the past 52 games on the road, while going 8-3-1 in the past 12 games following a straight-up win. The UNDER is also 10-4 in its past 14 games in the month of December.

Kansas City Chiefs Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 10-4
• ATS: 7-7
• O/U: 7-7
• ATS - Home: 3-5

Not only do the Chiefs stroll in with seven games in a row, last experiencing a loss over two calendar months ago, but they have covered the past five games, too. You have to go back to Week 1 for the last game the Chiefs hosted an AFC North team, outscoring the Cleveland Browns 33-29 as the OVER easily cashed. The OVER is also 2-0 in two games against AFC North teams this season for the Chiefs.

Is the Kansas City offense back? They posted 22 or fewer points in five of six games from Weeks 7 through 13, but they dropped 48 on the visiting Las Vegas Raiders in Week 14, and they posted 34 points in an overtime road win against the Los Angeles Chargers last week. In fact, it's the first time with consecutive OVER results since Oct. 3-10.

The Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in the past five as a favorite, and 4-1 ATS in the past five in the month of December. However, they're also just 4-10 ATS in the past 14 at home, and remember, double-check the status of Hill and Kelce before finalizing those bets. If Patrick Mahomes is without his top two targets, it could be more of a lower-scoring, run-based offense with Clyde Edwards-Helaire and company shouldering more of the load.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are 33-16-2 ATS in the past 51 games as an underdog. (AP)

Inside the Stats - Pittsburgh Steelers

• Record: 7-6-1
• Division Standing: 2-2
• Points Scored: 291
• Points Allowed: 335
• PS/G: 20.8
• PA/G: 23.9

Inside the Stats - Kansas City Chiefs

• Record: 10-4
• Division Standing: 4-1
• Points Scored: 385
• Points Allowed: 296
• PS/G: 27.5
• PA/G: 21.1

Key Players to Watch

• PIT: Diontae Johnson - WR (86 catches, 1,028 yards, 6 TD)
• PIT: Ben Roethlisberger - QB (313/480, 3,214 yards, 19 TD, 7 INT)
• KNC: Clyde Edwards-Helaire - RB (110 rushes, 490 yards, 3 TD)
• KNC: Patrick Mahomes - QB (360/549, 4,052 yards, 30 TD, 13 INT)

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Conclusion

The COVID cloud is hanging over the Kansas City Chiefs, mainly the offense, as a handful of offensive linemen, along with Hill and Kelce, are on the reserve/COVID list. If Hill and/or Kelce are missing, that's worth points, perhaps several of them. That makes it difficult to handicap this game, as Kansas City should be able to push past Pittsburgh if those two players are active. I do not like the Chiefs this week, however, as I think one or both will sit, and the kicking game will be an adventure with Fry stepping in for Butker, who is guaranteed not to play. That's a big loss, as the Steelers have a dependable kicker in Chris Boswell. So advantage Steelers.

There is just a ton of value getting ahead of things and banging the Steelers catching more than a touchdown at some shops, as of Thursday. In addition, there are still places like DraftKings Sportsbook where you can triple up with a money line bet. I mean, don't go crazy, but a small-unit play is more than warranted. Yes, the Steelers have stunk on the road lately, but when they faced a depleted Browns team, they took care of business in Cleveland. Of course, they own Cleveland. But anyway, Pittsburgh should be able to right the ship on the road, similar to what they did at home against a banged up Titans team, getting a low-scoring win on the road to keep those playoff hopes alive and well.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Trends

• The Steelers are 5-1 ATS in the past six games against winning teams.
• The Steelers are 13-6 ATS in the past 19 games as a road underdog.
• The Steelers are 3-8 ATS in the past 11 games in December.
• The Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in the past five games overall.
• The Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in the past five as a favorite.
• The Chiefs are 4-10 ATS in the past 14 home games.
• The UNDER is 37-14-1 in the past 52 road games for the Steelers.
• The UNDERE is 4-1 in the past five home games for the Chiefs.

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