Create FREE Account

Last Updated Jan 04, 2022, 23:44 PM

Atlanta Falcons vs. Buffalo Bills Predictions, Odds, Picks

Jan. 2, 2022
Michael Crosson
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

Regular-season NFL action will resume on Sunday afternoon with a lopsided non-conference matchup between the Atlanta Falcons and Buffalo Bills. Coverage begins from Highmark Stadium at 1:00 p.m. ET on FOX.

Score Prediction

Bills 31, Falcons 21

Best Bets

Over 43.5 (-110) at WynnBet

Atlanta Falcons vs. Buffalo Bills Predictions

After cruising to an AFC East title with a record of 13-3 SU last year, Buffalo managed to keep that same ball rolling with an excellent start to this season, as the Bills opened with a sturdy 4-1 SU and ATS run – while racking up a lofty 34.4 PPG on 410 YPG across those five contests.

The Bills have been very difficult to trust since Week 5 though, considering Buffalo is just 5-5 SU and 4-5-1 ATS across the last ten games – despite getting tagged as favorites in eight of those contests.

On the other hand, Atlanta played decent to start the year, as the Falcons kicked things off with a 4-4 SU and ATS split – while averaging 21.2 PPG across that opening stretch, leading to two of those losses coming by narrow margins of six points or less.

The Falcons are having an incredibly frustrating second half though, considering Atlanta is just 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS across the last seven games, which consists of predictable victories over the Jaguars, Lions, and Panthers (+19) – and ugly losses to the Buccaneers, Niners, Patriots, and Cowboys (-96).

I’ll take the over here, as the Falcons have averaged 20 PPG across their last five games, and while that probably won’t be enough to top Buffalo’s third-ranked scoring offense on Sunday afternoon (28.5 PPG) – Atlanta will likely apply enough pressure to drive the Bills into the ballpark of a third straight 30-point performance.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Odds

More Odds | Futures Odds




The Bills enter Sunday’s contest favored by roughly two touchdowns over the visiting Falcons – marking the heftiest underdog tag given to Atlanta this season.

The total for Sunday’s affair is stationed just south of OU 45 at most shops, which marks the third straight Bills’ game with an over-under set below that clip.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Resources

  • Matchup: NFC South vs. AFC East
  • Date: Sunday, January 2, 2022
  • Venue: Highmark Stadium
  • Location: Orchard Park, New York
  • TV-Time: FOX - 1:00 p.m. ET

Atlanta Falcons Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 7-8
  • ATS: 6-9
  • O/U: 6-9
  • ATS - Away: 5-3

After finishing last in the NFC South with a record of 4-12 SU last year, Atlanta stumbled out to a similarly disappointing start to this season, as the Falcons opened with losses in three of their first four games – with two of those losses coming by 20+ PTS.

The Falcons haven’t played all that bad since starting 1-3 SU though, considering Atlanta sits at 6-5 SU across the last 11 games – but don’t let that record fool you; those six wins came against a relatively unimpressive group of opponents in the Lions, Jaguars, Jets, Panthers, Saints, and Dolphins.

Buffalo Bills Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 9-6
  • ATS: 9-6
  • O/U: 8-7
  • ATS - Home: 4-3

After jumping out to a solid 4-1 SU and ATS start to the year, Buffalo ended up hitting a slight mid-season lull around Week 6, as the Bills went just 2-3 SU and 1-3-1 ATS across their ensuing five affairs – despite being favored by six points or more in all those matchups.

Despite the numbers not necessarily showing it, Buffalo has played solid football since Week 12, considering the Bills’ offense is averaging 26.4 PPG across the last five games – resulting in a seemingly pedestrian 3-2 SU stretch that includes a pair of highly competitive losses to the Patriots (L, 14-10) and Buccaneers (L, 33-27 OT).

Inside the Stats - Atlanta Falcons

  • Record: 7-8
  • Division Standing: 2nd - NFC South
  • Points Scored: 278
  • Points Allowed: 400
  • PS/G: 18.5 (25th)
  • PA/G: 26.7 (28th)

Inside the Stats - Buffalo Bills

  • Record: 9-6
  • Division Standing: 1st - AFC East
  • Points Scored: 427
  • Points Allowed: 264
  • PS/G: 28.5 (3rd)
  • PA/G: 17.6 (3rd)

Key Players to Watch

  • ATL: Matt Ryan - QB (67.9% CMP, 3,555 YDS, 19 TD, 11 INT)
  • ATL: Cordarrelle Patterson - RB, WR (140 CAR, 49 REC, 1,102 TOT YDS, 11 TD)
  • BUF: Josh Allen - QB (65% CMP, 4,048 YDS, 34 TD, 12 INT)
  • BUF: Stefon Diggs - WR (89 REC, 1,092 YDS, 9 TD)

Atlanta Falcons vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Conclusion

After posting an impressive road victory over the Patriots last week (W, 33-21), the Bills enter Sunday’s contest as 14-point home favorites over the visiting Falcons – marking the heaviest underdog tag given to Atlanta this season.

I’ll take the over here, as Buffalo has scored 27+ PTS in four of the last five games, with the only exception coming in a contest plagued by miserable weather against New England (L, 14-10) – while Atlanta’s offense has also played relatively well lately, averaging 20.7 PPG across the last three events.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Trends

  • The Falcons are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games.
  • The Falcons are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the last eight meetings between Buffalo and Atlanta.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the last seven Bills' games.


We may be compensated by the company links provided on this page. Read more

NFL News