Las Vegas Raiders vs. Indianapolis Colts Predictions, Odds, Picks

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

7 minute read

Jan. 2, 2022

Dan Dobish
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

The Las Vegas Raiders (8-7) travel to meet the Indianapolis Colts (9-6) at Lucas Oil Stadium for a Week 17 matchup on Sunday. Kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed on CBS.

Score Prediction

Colts 24, Raiders 19

Best Bets

Raiders +7 (-110) at BetMGM

Under 44.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Indianapolis Colts Predictions

The Raiders have won a pair of games at Cleveland in Week 15 and against Denver in Week 16, keeping themselves squarely in the mix for a wild-card spot in the AFC. The Raiders were able to benefit a little by the COVID protocols, as they faced the Browns in a rescheduled game on Monday, Dec. 20, and faced a third-string quarterback. The Silver and Black might be benefitting from COVID again, as crazy as that sounds. Colts QB Carson Wentz, an unvaccinated player, tested positive Tuesday, and is a question mark for Sunday's game, a hugely important game in the AFC playoff picture, especially for the Raiders.

Wentz has the benefit of the new COVID protocols in the NFL, even for unvaxxed players, as the isolation period is just five days following new CDC guidelines, down from the 10 days which hamstrung the Browns and other teams in recent weeks. So there is a chance if Wentz tests negative prior to Sunday that he will be ready to suit up and start this hugely important game.

The Colts offense has been hot lately, going for 22 or more points in each of the past 12 games, and 30 or more points in seven of the past 10. Of course, a lot of that has to do with the downhill running of MVP candidate RB Jonathan Taylor, too, and as long as his status isn't affected, the Raiders will have their hands full all day long.

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Odds

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Las Vegas Raiders vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Resources

• Matchup: AFC West vs. AFC South
• Date: Sunday, January 2, 2022
• Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
• Location: Indianapolis, Indiana
• TV-Time: FOX - 1:00 p.m. ET

• Weather Report
• Injury Report
• Super Bowl 56 Betting

Las Vegas Raiders Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 8-7
• ATS: 6-9
• O/U: 7-8
• ATS - Away: 3-4

The Raiders have struggled mightily on offense, scoring 17 or fewer points in four straight outings, and seven of the past eight outings. The only outlier was a 36-point explosion in a three-point overtime win in Dallas on Thanksgiving afternoon. However, the Raiders are 2-6 ATS across the past eight games overall.

Yet, here the Raiders are vying for a playoff spot, and that's a major tip of the hat to the defensive unit which has kept them alive. The Silver and Black has yielded 17 or fewer points in three of the past four games. Yes, teams like the Kansas City Chiefs have dropped 41 and 48 on them, and playoff hopefuls Cincinnati and Dallas put up big points, too. But against teams of similar ilk, which the Colts certainly qualify, the Raiders D has more than held its own.

Las Vegas has covered just two of the past eight overall, as mentioned above, but they're 5-2 ATS in the past seven as a road underdog, although one of the non-covers is that rescheduled game in Cleveland just two weeks ago. The Raiders are 1-4 ATS in the past five against winning teams, 3-7 ATS in the past 10 on the road and 10-21 ATS in the previous 31 following a straight-up win. The Raiders haven't been able to stack covers, either, going 2-5 ATS in the past seven following a cover in the previous game.

For totals, the OVER is 13-5-1 in the past 19 as a 'dog, while going 11-5-1 in the past 17 tries against teams with a winning overall record. The OVER is also 11-5 in the past 16 games against AFC teams.

Indianapolis Colts Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 9-6
• ATS: 10-5
• O/U: 8-7
• ATS - Home: 4-4

These teams met just last season, as retired QB Philip Rivers picked apart the Silver and Black in an empty Allegiant Stadium in Vegas, 44-27 on Dec. 13, 2020. Oddly enough, the road team has won and covered in each of the past three meetings in this series dating back to Oct. 28, 2018.

The Colts picked off the Arizona Cardinals on the road last Saturday, winning 22-16 as three-point underdogs, and that came on the heels of an impressive 27-17 home win against the New England Patriots on Dec. 18. That's three straight wins and covers. One only needs to look back to Weeks 4-7 for the last time the Colts rattled off four straight covers. In fact, the Colts are 10-5 ATS overall this season, the only AFC team with double-digit covers this season, and they're tied for the third-best record against the number in the NFL this season.

Indianapolis has covered four of the past five games overall, they're 4-1 ATS in the past five vs. AFC teams and 6-2 ATS in the past eight games against teams with a winning overall mark. They're also 18-7-1 ATS in the past 26 games at home against teams with a winning road record.

For totals, the OVER is a whopping 11-2 in the past 13 against teams with a winning overall record, although the UNDER is 5-2 in the past seven as a favorite, and 5-2 in the past seven as a home favorite, too.

The Indianapolis Colts have covered six of the past eight games against winning teams. (AP)

Inside the Stats - Las Vegas Raiders

• Record: 8-7
• Division Standing: 2-3
• Points Scored: 316
• Points Allowed: 387
• PS/G: 21.1
• PA/G: 25.8

Inside the Stats - Indianapolis Colts

• Record: 9-6
• Division Standing: 3-2
• Points Scored: 420
• Points Allowed: 316
• PS/G: 28.0
• PA/G: 21.1

Key Players to Watch

• LVR: Derek Carr - RB (384/559, 4,363 yards, 20 TD, 12 INT)
• LVR: Hunter Renfrow - WR (92 catches, 949 yards, 6 TD)
• IND: Jonathan Taylor - RB (297 rushes, 1,626 yards, 17 TD)
• IND: Carson Wentz - QB (289/460, 3,230 yards, 25 TD, 6 INT)

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Conclusion

The Raiders have had a ton of adversity, from the Jon Gruden e-mail situation and firing, the unfortunate drunk-driving incident with Henry Ruggs III and the social media debacle involving Damon Arnette. They've cut those things out, moved along and kept chugging despite the distractions. Interim head coach Rich Bisaccia should seriously be considered for the NFL's Coach of the Year for keeping this train on the rails and challenging for a playoff spot into January. Who could have seen that coming after all of the dark clouds in the fall?

If you keep picking against the Raiders because of all the distractions, you've likely been losing a lot of money, because they've just kept excelling, somehow, doing it with mirrors. I, personally, do not understand how they continue to get it done. Their offense is mediocre lately, the defense is just OK, and WR Hunter Renfrow is the No. 1 receiver. I don't get it.

That being said, the Colts have some adversity. I don't know if Wentz is going to be available this weekend, although I suspect he'll pass the new protocol at the last minute and be ready. If not, it's up to QB Sam Ehlinger or practice-squad QB Brett Hundley, a former Packers signal caller with NFL starting experience. If that's the case, it bodes really well for the Raiders. I think Wentz plays, though, and he will be rusty with a lack of practice time. That will help the Raiders keep it close. The fact the number has Indy installed as a touchdown favorite with all of the uncertainty is ludicrous, especially with all the close games the Raiders have been playing lately. If you can buy a half-point straight up, or toss the Raiders into a teaser, even better.

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Trends

• The Raiders are 2-6 ATS in the past eight games overall.
• The Raiders are 3-7 ATS in the past 10 road games.
• The Raiders are 1-4 ATS in the past five vs. winning teams.
• The Raiders are 1-4 ATS in the past five vs. AFC.
• The Colts are 4-1 ATS in the past five games overall.
• The Colts are 6-2 ATS in the past eight vs. winning teams.
• The Colts are 4-1 ATS in the past five vs. AFC.
• The OVER is 13-5-1 in the past 19 as an underdog for the Raiders.
• The OVER is 11-5-1 in the past 17 vs. winning teams for the Raiders.
• The OVER is 11-5 in the past 16 vs. AFC for the Raiders.
• The OVER is 11-2 in the past 13 vs. winning teams for the Colts.
• The UNDER is 5-2 in the past seven as a favorite for the Colts.

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