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Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Predictions, Odds, Picks

Kevin Rogers
Kevin Rogers Sports Betting Expert
9 minute read
Jan. 3, 2022
Dan Dobish
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

The Cleveland Browns (7-8) travel to meet the Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7-1) for a Monday Night Football showdown in Week 17 at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed on ESPN.

Score Prediction

Steelers 22, Browns 19

Best Bets

Steelers +150 ML at BetMGM

Steelers +3.5 (-115) at BetMGM

Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Predictions

The Browns are coming off a couple of gut-wrenching losses the previous two games, falling 16-14 against the Las Vegas Raiders at home in Week 15 and falling 24-22 against the Green Bay Packers on the road on Christmas. Cleveland played the Raiders game extremely shorthanded in a game pushed back two days due to COVID issues within the team. They were still forced to use third-string QB Nick Mullens, who has since been returned to the practice squad, and lost on a field goal at the buzzer. On Christmas, the Browns hung with MVP candidate QB Aaron Rodgers, but lost again by just two points. It still hasn't eliminated the Browns from the playoffs, but they're hanging on by a thread. The past three losses have been one-score games.

The Steelers are also hanging on by a thread, and this game is essentially an elimination game. The loser is all but eliminated from the AFC playoff picture, more so if it is Cleveland. Pittsburgh is mathematically alive depending on Sunday's results, but the Black and Gold would likely rather not test that. This also is expected to be QB Ben Roethlisberger's final home game at Heinz Field, so the emotions are expected to be running high.

Last season, the Browns won an AFC wild-card game at the confluence, stunning Big Ben and the Steelers. It seems even more unlikely this season, as the Browns just seem to be slipping gears and not hitting on all cylinders. Of course, neither are the Steelers, and it's likely neither of these teams really deserve a crack at a playoff spot, but they might find their way there anyway.

Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Odds

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Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Resources

  • Matchup: AFC North
  • Date: Monday, January 3, 2022
  • Venue: Heinz Field
  • Location: Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
  • TV-Time: ESPN - 8:15 p.m. ET

Cleveland Browns Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 7-8
  • ATS: 7-8
  • O/U: 7-8
  • ATS - Away: 4-3

The Browns are hoping the third time is a charm. Cleveland could've easily topped Las Vegas at full strength, losing with a patchwork lineup on a last-second field goal instead. The Browns seemed unlikely to pull off an upset, or even come close, in Lambeau against the Packers. It lost a two-point game instead. The Browns have been so close, and now they legit face a must-win situation, and have to go through the house of horrors which is Heinz Field, as the Browns historically haven't played well at the confluence of the Allegheny, Monongahela and Ohio Rivers. Pittsburgh has been kryptonite for the Browns, although Cleveland hasn't had a lot of good stories and warm memories in many other places, either, even at home.

In any event, the Browns do have last season's Week 17 win in Cleveland to look back upon fondly, topping the Steelers 24-22 to secure a wild-card spot. And then it was forced to go to this very same venue on wild-card weekend, and lo and behold, The Bake Show and friends pulled off a 48-37 victory which sent the meme creators into a frenzy, as Big Ben shed tears sitting alone on the bench, in what many figured might be his last game. It wasn't, but this might be his final performance in front of the home fans.

Cleveland heads into this one favored, which might be a little on the surprising side for some. It is for me. The Browns haven't handled being favored well, going 1-4 ATS in the past five as a favorite, and 2-7 ATS in the past nine as a road fave. They're also just 11-28-1 ATS across the past 40 inside the division, including 1-3 ATS this season (0-1 ATS vs. PIT). And in the previous seven showings on MNF, the Browns are 2-5 ATS. So what's good? Well, the Browns are 7-3-1 ATS in the past 11 appearances in the month of January. And, you can take solace in the fact the public has been betting the Steelers pretty hard, and, well, you know how that goes.

Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 7-7-1
  • ATS: 6-9
  • O/U: 6-9
  • ATS - Home: 3-5

I am sad that a mediocre Huey Lewis song keeps popping into my head. Of course, aren't all Huey Lewis songs mediocre? Anyway...if this is it, I want to know. Roethlisberger has said this is likely is his last home game at Heinz Field, although it hasn't been a definitive answer, just that this feels like it might be the final act of his storied career. Hmm, sounds like a guy leaving the door open for one more year, trying to rally the troops around its leader for an important game, but anyway.

The Steelers haven't had a ton of success against teams with a losing record, going 0-6 ATS in the past six games against teams with a sub-.500 record, while posting a 1-4 ATS mark across the past five MNF showings. In addition, they're 1-3-1 ATS in the past five in Week 17, including last season in Cleveland. However, Pittsburgh is 14-6-3 ATS across the past 23 appearances in the month of January, while going 5-2 ATS in the past seven against AFC foes. They're also an impressive 33-16-2 ATS in the past 41 as an underdog, so there's that.

For totals, the UNDER is 4-1 in the past five at home. The UNDER is 8-3 in the past 11 as a home 'dog. The UNDER is 4-1 in the past five after a non-cover, the UNDER is 5-2 in the past seven after a straight-up loss. The UNDER hit in the first meeting in Cleveland, too. There isn't a lot of evidence that points to this being an aerial showcase like last season's wild-card game, but we'll see.


The Steelers have covered four of the past five meetings against the Browns. (AP)

Inside the Stats - Cleveland Browns

  • Record: 7-8
  • Division Standing: 2-2
  • Points Scored: 314
  • Points Allowed: 329
  • PS/G: 20.9
  • PA/G: 21.9

Inside the Stats - Pittsburgh Stelers

  • Record: 7-7-1
  • Division Standing: 2-2
  • Points Scored: 301
  • Points Allowed: 371
  • PS/G: 20.1
  • PA/G: 24.7

Key Players to Watch

  • CLE: Nick Chubb - RB (207 rushes, 1,143 yards, 8 TD)
  • CLE: Baker Mayfield - QB (237/380, 2,825 yards, 15 TD, 11 INT)
  • PIT: Diontae Johnson - WR (92 catches, 1,079 yards, 7 TD)
  • PIT: Ben Roethlisberger - QB (336/515, 3,373 yards, 20 TD, 8 INT)

Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Conclusion

I am originally from Cleveland, moving away in 1980. I've always had a soft spot for the Browns, and would love to see them go to the Super Bowl one day, as the town needs something good to feel about since the Indians...err, Guardians...aren't doing it. The Cavaliers did win, and are on the upswing again, but it's basketball. Blech. Cleveland has always been a Browns Town, and the town might burn down like the river once did if the Browns even appeared in the Super Bowl, let alone won it all.

That being said, I don't bet with my heart or feelings, I use my brain. The fact of the matter is the Browns just aren't that good. In fact, they're mediocre. A rash of injuries, COVID issues, etc. have gotten them to be mediocre, but it is what it is, although the defense can be top-notch sometimes. Some in Cleveland will yell from the top of the Terminal Tower that they need a new quarterback, but I will excuse myself from that argument.

Pittsburgh has always been a place that is a house of nightmares, whether it is Chuck Noll and Terry Bradshaw in there, or Mike Tomlin and Ben Roethlisberger. Heck, I am sure the Browns didn't do very well against Bubby Brister or Neal O'Donnell, although I am just not looking that up. But it's a nightmare scenario for Browns fans in a must-win game, and deep down they know it. Toss in the emotions of the potential last game for Roethlisberger, and this looks like a gift catching three and a hook for the Steelers. I love gifts, and I'll take a late holiday present from the books.

Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Trends

  • The Browns are 1-4 ATS in the past five games as a favorite.
  • The Browns are 2-7 ATS in the past nine as a road favorite.
  • The Browns are 2-5 ATS in the past five Monday night games.
  • The Browns are 11-28-1 ATS in the past 40 AFC North games.
  • The Steelers are 1-4 ATS in the past five Monday night games.
  • The Steelers are 0-6 ATS in the past six vs. losing teams.
  • The Steelers are 33-16-2 ATS in the past 51 as an underdog.
  • The UNDER is 4-1 in the past five games for the Browns.
  • The OVER is 6-2 in the past eight AFC North games for the Browns.
  • The UNDER is 6-2 in the past seven as a favorite for the Browns.
  • The UNDER is 4-1 in the past five home games for the Steelers.
  • The OVER is 4-1 in the past five as an underdog for the Steelers.
  • The Browns are 1-4 ATS in the past five meetings.

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Kevin Rogers

Kevin Rogers

Kevin has been handicapping professionally since 2007 at VegasInsider before shifting to ScoresAndOdds. He focuses on MLB, NFL, college football, NBA, college basketball, and NHL and mainly uses trends, systems, and situations as his top handicapping angles. More from Kevin Rogers
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