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Last Updated Jan 14, 2022, 20:19 PM

New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills Predictions, Picks, Odds

Wild Card Weekend will resume on Saturday night with a heavyweight AFC East rubber match between the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills. Coverage begins from Highmark Stadium at 8:15 p.m. ET on CBS. 

SCORE PREDICTION

Bills 27, Patriots 17

BEST BETS

Bills -4 (-110) at BetMGM

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS VS. BUFFALO BILLS PREDICTIONS

After cruising to an AFC East title with a record of 13-3 SU last year, Buffalo kept that same ball rolling with another strong start to this season, as the Bills opened with a sturdy 5-3 SU and 4-3-1 ATS run – while scoring 29.4 PPG on 390 YPG across that span.

The Bills’ offense was slightly less impressive in the second half though, but their defense picked up plenty of slack to compensate, considering Buffalo averaged 27.5 PPG on 374 YPG offensively across Weeks 10 through 18 – and surrendered just 19 PPG on 282 YPG defensively across that same window.

On the other hand, New England jumped out to an excellent start with rookie Mac Jones under center, as the Patriots kicked off the season with an impressive 8-4 SU and ATS run – while racking up a lofty 28 PPG on 355 YPG during that timeframe.

The Patriots went completely off-script down the homestretch though, considering New England wrapped up the regular season with a frustrating 2-3 SU skid, while scoring 24 PTS or less in four of those affairs – and surrendering 27+ PTS in three.

I’ll lay the points with Buffalo here, as the Bills’ defense has surrendered 15 PTS or less in five of their last seven games (16.1 PPG) – and I highly doubt the Patriots will move that needle much after generating 24 PTS or less in four of their last five matchups.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS VS. BUFFALO BILLS BETTING ODDS

More Odds | Futures Odds

The Bills enter Saturday’s contest as four-point favorites over the visiting Patriots, which marks the first time New England has been an underdog since visiting Indianapolis in Week 15 (IND -1).

The total for Sunday’s event is near OU 44 at most shops – marking the second-highest number set for a Patriots’ game since Week 12.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS VS. BUFFALO BILLS BETTING RESOURCES

  • Matchup: AFC East 
  • Date: Saturday, January 15, 2022
  • Venue: Highmark Stadium
  • Location: Orchard Park, New York
  • TV-Time: CBS - 8:15 p.m. ET

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 10-7
  • ATS: 10-7
  • O/U: 9-8
  • ATS - Away: 5-3

After drafting Jones in the first round of the latest draft, New England’s offense played to start the season, as the Patriots racked up 28 PPG on 355 YPG across the first 12 weeks of their new signal-caller’s tenure.

The Patriots’ offense was incredibly inconsistent towards the end of the season though, considering New England enters Wild Card Weekend sitting at 2-3 SU and ATS across their last five games, while averaging just 19 PPG across four of those contests – and ripping the Jaguars for 50 PTS in the other.

BUFFALO BILLS BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 11-6
  • ATS: 9-6-2
  • O/U: 8-9
  • ATS - Home: 4-3-2

After jumping out to a solid 4-1 SU and ATS start to the year, the Bills hit a brief mid-season lull around Week 6, as Buffalo went just 2-3 SU and 1-3-1 ATS across the ensuing five affairs – despite being favored by six points or more in all six of those matchups.

The Bills played excellent down the homestretch though, considering Buffalo closed out the regular season with a solid 5-2 SU and 4-2-1 ATS run – while generating 26.9 PPG offensively and surrendering 16.1 PPG defensively during that timeframe.

The Bills are 13-3 SU in their last 16 home games. (AP)

INSIDE THE STATS - NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

  • Record: 10-7
  • Division Standing: 2nd - AFC East
  • Points Scored: 462
  • Points Allowed: 303
  • PS/G: 27.2 (6th)
  • PA/G: 17.8 (2nd)

INSIDE THE STATS - BUFFALO BILLS

  • Record: 11-6
  • Division Standing: 1st - AFC East
  • Points Scored: 483
  • Points Allowed: 289
  • PS/G: 3rd
  • PA/G: 1st

KEY PLAYERS TO WATCH

  • NWE: Mac Jones - QB (67.6% CMP, 3,801 YDS, 22 TD, 13 INT)
  • NWE: Damien Harris - RB (202 CAR, 929 YDS, 15 TD)
  • BUF: Josh Allen - QB (63.3% CMP, 4,407 YDS, 36 TD, 15 INT)
  • BUF: Stefon Diggs - WR (103 REC, 1,225, 10 TD)

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS VS. BUFFALO BILLS BETTING CONCLUSION

After closing out the regular season with losses in three of their last four games, the Patriots hit the road on Wild Card Weekend as four-point underdogs against the Bills at Highmark Stadium – marking the first time New England has been an underdog since visiting Indy in Week 15 (IND -1).

I’ll lay the points with Buffalo here, as the Patriots have scored 24 PTS or less in four of their last five games – and that underwhelming level of production typically doesn’t suffice against a Bills squad that scored 27+ PTS in six-of-seven matchups to close out the regular-season (26.9 PPG). 

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS VS. BUFFALO BILLS BETTING TRENDS

  • The Patriots are 15-5 SU in their last 20 matchups against Buffalo.
  • The Bills are 13-3 SU in their last 16 home games.
  • The Patriots are 8-3 SU ATS in their last 11 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in nine of the last 13 Patriots' games.
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