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Last Updated Jan 21, 2022, 21:39 PM

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Predictions, Picks, Odds


The Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs will conclude on Sunday evening with a highly anticipated AFC showdown between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs. Coverage begins from Arrowhead Stadium at 6:30 p.m. ET on CBS.

SCORE PREDICTION

Chiefs 33, Bills 23

BEST BETS

Chiefs -1.5 (-110) at BetMGM

BUFFALO BILLS VS. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS PREDICTIONS

After cruising to an AFC East title with a record of 13-3 SU last year, Buffalo stumbled out to a surprisingly mediocre start to this season, as the Bills opened with a pedestrian 5-3 SU and 4-3-1 ATS run – despite racking up 29.4 PPG on 390 YPG across that span.

The Bills weren’t quite as dominant offensively in the second half, but their defense picked up more than enough slack to compensate, considering Buffalo’s offense generated 27.5 PPG on 374 YPG across Weeks 10 through 18, while surrendering just 19 PPG on 282 YPG defensively across that same timeframe.

On the other hand, Kansas City stumbled out to a similarly pedestrian start to the year, as the Chiefs kicked things off with a frustrating 4-4 SU and 2-6 ATS skid – with their only ATS victories across that window coming against Philadelphia and Washington.

Kansas City has looked virtually unstoppable since the midway point of the season though, considering the Chiefs have racked up 33.4 PPG offensively and surrendered 17.6 PPG defensively across their current 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS run – which includes a seemingly effortless 42-21 victory over Pittsburgh on Wild Card Weekend.

I’ll back the Chiefs at home here, as both teams have been phenomenal on offense recently, highlighted by Kansas City and Buffalo both racking up 27+ PTS in six straight contests – but my vote of confidence belongs to a Chiefs squad that’s also allowed 21 PTS or less defensively in seven of their last ten games (16.5 PPG).

BUFFALO BILLS VS. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS BETTING ODDS

More Odds | Futures Odds

The Chiefs enter the Divisional Round as two-point home favorites over the visiting Bills, which marks the 18th consecutive matchup Kansas City has been favored in.

The total for Sunday’s event is stationed near OU 54 at most shops – marking the highest over-under set for a Bills’ game all season.

BUFFALO BILLS VS. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS BETTING RESOURCES

  • Matchup: AFC East vs. AFC West
  • Date: Sunday, January 23, 2022
  • Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
  • Location: Kansas City, Missouri
  • TV-Time: CBS - 6:30 p.m. ET

BUFFALO BILLS BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 12-6
  • ATS: 10-6-2
  • O/U: 9-9
  • ATS - Away: 5-3

After jumping out to a solid 4-1 SU and ATS start to the year, the Bills hit a brief mid-season lull around Week 6, as Buffalo went just 2-3 SU and 1-3-1 ATS across the ensuing five affairs – despite being favored by six points or more in all six of those matchups.

The Bills played excellent down the homestretch though, considering Buffalo closed out the regular season with a solid 5-2 SU and 4-2-1 ATS run, while generating 26.9 PPG offensively and surrendering just 16.1 PPG defensively across that timeframe – capped off by a commanding victory over New England in last weekend’s highly anticipated AFC East rubber match (W, 47-17).

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 13-5
  • ATS: 9-9
  • O/U: 11-7
  • ATS - Home: 5-5

After stumbling out to a head-scratching 5-4 SU and 2-7 ATS start to the year, the Chiefs quickly flipped the script and looked like the best team in the AFC during the back-half of the year, as Kansas City scored 32.4 PPG and allowed just 17.1 PPG across their 7-1 SU run to close out the regular season.

The Chiefs seemingly carried that momentum into the first round of the playoffs too, considering the Kansas City’s offense exploded for 42 PTS on 478 YDS during their 42-21 blowout victory over Pittsburgh on Wild Card Weekend.

The Bills are 2-5 ATS in their last seven matchups against Kansas City. (AP)

INSIDE THE STATS - BUFFALO BILLS

  • Record: 11-6
  • Division Standing: 1st - AFC East
  • Points Scored: 483
  • Points Allowed: 289
  • PS/G: 28.4 (3rd)
  • PA/G: 17 (1st)

INSIDE THE STATS - KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

  • Record: 12-5
  • Division Standing: 1st - AFC West
  • Points Scored: 480
  • Points Allowed: 364
  • PS/G: 28.2 (4th)
  • PA/G: 21.4 (8th)

KEY PLAYERS TO WATCH

  • BUF: Josh Allen - QB (63.3% CMP, 259 YPG, 36 TD, 15 INT)
  • BUF: Stefon Diggs - WR (103 REC, 1,225 YDS, 10 TD)
  • KNC: Patrick Mahomes - QB (66.3% CMP, 285 YPG, 37 TD, 13 INT)
  • KNC: Tyreek Hill - WR (111 REC, 1,239 YDS, 9 TD)

BUFFALO BILLS VS. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS BETTING CONCLUSION

After stomping New England at home last week (W, 47-17), the Bills hit the road in the Divisional Round as two-point underdogs against the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium – marking just the fourth time Buffalo has been an underdog this season.

I’ll lay the points with the Chiefs here, as the Bills’ offense racked up 38 PTS on 436 YDS during their commanding 38-20 victory over Kansas City back in Week 5 – but this time around, we’ll likely see a much stronger performance from a Chiefs’ defense that’s surrendered 21 PTS or less in seven of their last ten games (16.5 PPG).

BUFFALO BILLS VS. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS BETTING TRENDS

  • The Bills are 2-5 ATS in their last seven matchups against Kansas City.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 12 of the last 18 matchups between Kansas City and Buffalo.
  • The Chiefs are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in six straight Chiefs' games.
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