Last Updated Oct 06, 2022, 7:55 PM

Indianapolis Colts vs. Denver Broncos Picks, Predictions, Odds

Week 5 of the NFL season will kick things off on Thursday night with a compelling AFC clash between the Indianapolis Colts and Denver Broncos. Coverage begins from Empower Field at 8:15 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime TV.


The Colts’ offense averaged 26.5 PPG and turned the ball over just 19 times with Carson Wentz at QB last season, which ranked Top 10 in the league in both departments, as Wentz completed 62% of his passes for 3,563 YDS and a 27-7 INT ratio in his first campaign with Indy. However, the Colts still missed the playoffs, so Indy decided to move in a different direction by bringing in 37-year-old veteran Matt Ryan, and so far, it’s been an absolute disaster, as the Colts’ offense currently ranks dead-last in scoring (14.3 PPG), and they’ve already turned the ball over nine times, mostly thanks to Ryan’s five interceptions and nine fumbles. (three fumbles lost)

Denver, on the other hand, is also off to a surprisingly slow start to the season, as the Broncos averaged just 16.5 PPG on 336 YPG and turned the ball over four times in their first four contests following the blockbuster acquisition of Russell Wilson. However, their defense has played excellent thus far, as Denver bottled up its opponents for 17 PTS or less on 270 YDS or less in three-of-four matchups to open the season, yielding a relatively modest record of 2-2.

Both of these offenses have been terrible through Week 4, highlighted by Denver and Indy both scoring 20 PTS or less in three-of-four contests to open the season. However, the Colts’ defense allowed 22 PPG across their two road matchups, and the Broncos’ defense surrendered 10 PTS or less in both of their home matchups, so I’ll back Denver to take care of business at home here.

Score Prediction: Broncos 24, Colts 17
Best Bet: Broncos -3.5 (-110)


More Odds | Super Bowl Odds | Expert Picks


Date: Thursday, Oct. 6, 2022
Matchup: AFC South vs. AFC West
Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
Location: Denver, Colorado
Time-TV: Amazon Prime TV, 8:15 p.m. ET


Indianapolis finished second in the AFC South with a record of 9-8 last year, which fell half-a-game short of Pittsburgh for the final Wild Card spot in the conference, as the Colts simply needed a road win over Jacksonville in Week 18 to clinch a playoff berth, however, their offense scored just 11 points on 233 total yards with the season on the line, resulting in the Colts’ third QB change in the last three seasons.

The Colts have been on quite the rollercoaster to start this season, as Indy opened with an ugly tie-loss combo against the Texans and Jaguars in their first two matchups, which was followed by a thrilling three-point victory over the Chiefs in Week 3. In Week 4, however, Indy reverted back to its original form, as the Colts trailed Tennessee 24-3 in the second half of a matchup they were favored in, despite the final score clocking in at a relatively close 24-17.

The Colts are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games against Denver. (Getty Images)


The Broncos saddled up for the homestretch last year sitting well within striking distance of a playoff spot at 7-6. However, Teddy Bridgewater suffered a season-ending injury in Week 14 and Denver limped to the finish line with an 0-4 skid, resulting in their relatively lackluster 7-10 mark for the season.

Denver’s defense is rarely the issue, as the Broncos ranked second in scoring and ninth in total yardage last season (18.9 PPG, 326 YPG), and so far this season, they rank fifth scoring and fourth in yardage (17 PPG, 285 YPG). So, the addition of a high-profile QB seemed like an easy fix, but that certainly hasn’t been the case for Wilson and co. thus far, as the Broncos’ offense averaged just 16.5 PPG through the first four weeks of the season, which is slightly worse than the 19.7 PPG they averaged last season.


  • The Colts are 1-5 ATS in their last six games.
  • The Broncos are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in nine straight Colts' games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Denver's last 15 games.
  • The Colts are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games against Denver.
  • The Broncos are 3-9 SU in their last 12 games against Indy.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of Denver's last eight home games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five straight Colts' road games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 10 of the last 14 matchups between the Colts and Broncos.
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