Last Updated Nov 02, 2022, 12:37 PM
Week 7 NFL Player Prop Picks, Predictions, Odds
Prop Betting Expert
Prop betting expert Stuart Durst is back on the gridiron to give out his top plays in Week 7 of the NFL for Sunday, October 23rd. Check out his prediction below, along with other VI Expert Picks!
NFL Week 7 Best Prop Bets
- Allen Lazard (GB) Longest Reception Over 19.5 Yards (-114)
- David Njoku (CLE) Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
- David Njoku (CLE) Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+330)
Allen Lazard (GB) Longest Reception Over 19.5 Yards (-114)
My most anticipated prop of the week is out, and at a better price than I had expected. Lazard receiving yards dropped at 50.5 as one of the first spots on the board, so considering it took almost two days for the longest reception to drop, I was thinking it would be around 22.5 yards. Before we get into this prop, it's important to acknowledge how important this game is for the Packers. The NFC is looking wide open this season, and the Packers have now lost back-to-back matchups to the Giants and Jets, in rather embarrassing fashion. For a team that was projected to be Super Bowl contenders, a bounceback is much needed.
I’m not going to say the thing I say every week about Washington, it's pointless to run on them when you can just throw all over the lackluster secondary. The Washington D-Line composed of former 1st round picks Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen is clearly the strong suit of this defense. While Aaron Jones is one of the more dynamic backs in the NFL, and could break a big play at any moment, I think most of the damage comes against the Washington defense. Cornerback William Jackson has requested a trade, and Kendall Fuller is playing at a bottom of the barrel level. Benjamin St-Juste will step into the lineup and likely take on Lazard due to his size, but he’s also relatively inexperienced as an outside corner.
Lazard just got done going against Sauce Gardner, one of the best young cornerbacks in the NFL. Despite tough coverage and multiple pass breakups, Lazard still went for 76 yards with a 35 yard reception. He’s gone over this number in 3 of his last 4 games, and now gets his best matchup against Washignton. Lazard currently has an ADOT of 13.8, and an air yards share of 37%, both leading his team. Lazard also gets a boost against man coverage, which Washington runs at the 7th highest rate in the NFL. He is 3rd in the NFL in yards and is seeing a deep 10.1 yards per target, the best on his team.
David Njoku (CLE) Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-115) + Anytime TD Scorer (+330)
Have you guys heard of the expression “money talks” before? While David Njoku started out the season a bit slow, he has absolutely exploded over the last couple of weeks, quietly producing on an elite level. Over the last 4 weeks, Njoku leads the NFL is TE receiving yards with 308, ahead of Mark Andews, Travis Kelce, Dallas Goedert, and Zach Ertz. I would say he’s starting to make that contract look like a bargain. Now let's take a look at the matchup, and see how the Ravens have done versus the TE -
- David Bellinger 5-38-1 (Leading Receiver)
- Hayden Hurst 6-53-1 (Leading Receiver)
- Dawson Knox 3-40-0
- Johnu Smith 4-25
- Mike Gesicki 4-41-1
- Conklin 4-16-1
The Ravens have allowed the opposing TE to be the leading receiver in back to back games, and have allowed 4 of their 5 opponents to go over there number. I also originally hadn't planned on betting the touchdown, but at +330 on Fanduel is definitely worth a sprinkle. The next best price is +285 on Draftkings, so we are clearly getting some value. While Brissett is never the sexiest option at quarterback, he can move the ball downfield and manage the game.
Additionally, this Browns defense is terrible. They haven't been able to stop anyone this season, even with Myles Garrett back in the mix. The run defense is the weakness, and while JK Dobbins may be out, this Ravens run scheme is strong with or without their starter. This is important to our bet because if they can't stop anyone on the ground, they’re going to be forced into a pass heavy game script. Both Chubb and Hunt have struggled versus the Ravens in the past, this is a good spot for Njoku.