Last Updated Nov 24, 2022, 8:09 PM
Thanksgiving NFL Player Props
Sports Betting Expert
We have arrived at one of the best football weeks of the season: Thanksgiving weekend. There are three Thursday games, a full Sunday slate of games, a ton of food to consume while watching those games, and if you're predisposed to the degenerate side of things like us here, you have a MASSIVE prop slate.
That's where I come in. I'm the guy that's gonna take you through this Thursday tripleheader and nail down a few props that you ABSOLUTELY should be looking to consume at the same time as you look to fill your stomachs with all the delicious Thanksgiving food.
As always, feel free to check out the Matchups pages that are linked for each of the three games, as each one should be extremely interesting. From all of us here at VegasInsider, we wish you and your families a happy Thanksgiving! Let's get right into it.
Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 74.5 Receiving Yards (BetRivers)
If anyone remembers last year at this point (almost feels like a fever dream), St. Brown's coming-out party started in Week 12. He didn't have the stat line until the following week, but Week 12 was the first time he played over 85% of the snaps and really was utilized by the team. We all know how his season ended, ripping off 6 straight games of 8 or more catches and 73 or more yards.
If you don't, it paints a pretty favorable picture for the young star, and we're going right back to it this year with a favorable matchup for this Week 12. The Bills are thought of as this juggernaut defense this season, but injuries and general wear have taken their toll and that defense has a pretty gaping hole: the slot coverage.
They rank as the 5th worst defense against slot WRs in the NFL with 17.5 fantasy points per game allowed, where St. Brown has played 76% of his snaps this season. It's a bit of a high number, but the Lions have gone out of their way to manufacture touches to him and with a total of 54.5 in this game, it's expect that they'll be throwing quite a bit.
Saquon Barkley Over 72.5 Rushing Yards (Caesars)
Stop me if you've heard this one before: a running back has a rough game on the ground against a rushing defense that was supposed to be bad, so the books overreact and hang a line that has been way overcorrected, leaving a bunch of value on the board. Then imagine that RB has hit that number in all but 3 games this season. That's what we have here in Barkley, who even went over this number in the first matchup vs. Dallas back in Week 3.
The Cowboys' defense has been very solid this season but recently they've shown some cracks. The Packers rushed for over 200 yards against them two weeks ago and despite the utter dismantling of the Vikings last week, Dalvin Cook rushed for 72 yards on 11 carries before he was unceremoniously yanked from the game, showing some vulnerability. Especially if you agree with the general thought that this will be a slower game due to both offenses preferring to run the ball, riding high on Barkley should benefit you here.
T.J. Hockenson Anytime Touchdown +220 (FanDuel)
We have a theme here! All of these props seemingly have roadblocks in that they're going up against what appear on the surface to be lockdown defenses...BUT we're targeting a loophole in each one. The Patriots defense is no different, and we're going right back to the well this week with this one. Hockenson has been a target MAGNET since he arrived in Minnesota, earning at least 9 in all three games. He also has 12 red zone targets on the season, 4th in the NFL.
Let's dive into the matchup he faces this week, and it may surprise you (read: it shouldn't) that he's going up against the WORST red zone defense against tight ends in the league in New England. The Patriots allow 5.6 red zone fantasy points per game and they also allow 0.7 touchdowns per game to the position, which ranks 2nd in the league. I expect Hockenson to be extremely busy this week in this matchup and the Vikings will be desperate to prove that last week's game against the Cowboys was an outlier performance.