Super Bowl Betting Trends & Futures Odds Report
Super Bowl betting trends are already getting established for the 2023-24 season, with more action starting to roll in following the NFL Draft. Apparently, there are customers who don't mind having their money tied up for the next nine months.
There's no change at the top, with the Kansas City Chiefs favored to repeat in odds to win the Super Bowl. But there's plenty of movement among several other teams.
Adam Pullen, assistant director of trading for Caesars Sports, provides insights on Super Bowl 58 betting odds, trends and action. Check back regularly for updates.
2023-24 Super Bowl Odds
Betting on Birds
If your team is named after a bird of flight, then you might be seeing more action of late in the Super Bowl futures odds market. Specifically, during and in the wake of the NFL Draft, the Philadelphia Eagles and Baltimore Ravens got a boost from bettors.
"The Eagles were definitely viewed as the winners of the draft. And we did see a relatively sharp customer bet the Eagles," Pullen said. "The draft is not an exact science. The effects won't be known until the end of next season or even two seasons. But people are gonna get excited, and we did take a little Eagles money."
Caesars shortened the defending NFC champion just a bit. Philadelphia entered the draft at +850 to win the Super Bowl and is now the +750 co-second choice with the San Francisco 49ers. Both are behind only the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs (+600).
Meanwhile, a transaction made hours before the first round of the NFL Draft also impacted Super Bowl odds. The Baltimore Ravens locked up quarterback Lamar Jackson with a monster five-year, $260 million deal.
"Any time big news breaks, you're gonna get people jumping on," Pullen said. "The Ravens took a little money with the confirming of the Jackson deal. We moved the Ravens from 30/1 to 25/1.
"I don't know how close Jackson was to leaving. We pretty much had it baked in that he was gonna be on the team."
When Super Bowl betting first went up in February, Baltimore was +3500.
Ticket Takers and Money Makers
Action on the Eagles and Ravens is just a snapshot of Super Bowl betting trends. These odds have been up since the Chiefs edged the Eagles in Super Bowl 57 almost three months ago. With the NFL as popular as it is, several teams are getting attention at Caesars.
And creating early liability.
"The two biggest liabilities are the Jets and the Raiders," Pullen said. "It stands to reason that the Raiders are more of a Nevada thing than nationwide action. And you knew the Jets were gonna take a ton of money in the New York market, with that population base. Add the Aaron Rodgers trade into it, and it's even more so."
Three days before the draft, the Green Bay Packers and New York consummated the Rodgers deal. The Jets are now the +1400 fifth choice in Caesars' Super Bowl odds market, after opening +3500 in February. The Raiders are closer to the middle of the pack at +3500, a modest improvement from the opening price of +4000.
Pullen said the Chicago Bears and Seattle Seahawks – both +5000 – have also gotten bettors' attention the past couple of months. Chicago opened at 100/1 and Seattle at +5500. Also getting notice is a team that finished the 2022-23 season strong, falling just short of the playoffs.
"Detroit was very popular when the odds first went up," Pullen said.
The Lions went on an 8-2 SU run – and an even better 9-1 ATS – to cap last season. That's helped lure early Super Bowl 58 tickets and money on the Lions, who opened +3000 and are now +2500.
Pullen noted several solid teams – playoff outfits from last season – that currently represent good Super Bowl outcomes for Caesars, including:
- Buffalo Bills (+900)
- Los Angeles Chargers (+2500)
- New York Giants (+4000)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (+2500)
- San Francisco 49ers (+750)
"We're in a really good position with the Niners, which is surprising," Pullen said of a team that's played in the last two NFC Championship Games. "The 49ers are well-bet, but at a short price, and that has a lot to do with it. In Nevada, the 49ers have the most number of bets. But their odds aren't as long as in previous years, so the liability hasn't built up."
Flying Under the Radar
Pullen also pointed to a few teams currently flying under the radar – perhaps way under the radar – that might be worth a shot in the Super Bowl betting market. Among them:
- Cleveland Browns (+3500)
- Denver Broncos (+4000)
- Washington Commanders (+8000)
- Tennessee Titans (100/1)
"Tennessee has been a playoff team in recent years. At 100/1, that's a price the Titans haven't been at in a while," Pullen said of a team sitting a dismal 29th on Caesars' odds board. "Two years ago, the Bengals had the second-worst odds, and they made it to the Super Bowl."
Indeed, the Bengals fell just short against the Los Angeles Rams, losing 23-20 in Super Bowl 56.
Denver was thought to be a Super Bowl contender prior to the 2022-23 season, mainly due to the acquisition of QB Russell Wilson. But the Broncos were downright dismal on offense and went 5-12. Now, they've got a big-name coach, hence Pullen thinking the Broncos might be worth a shot.
"Could the Broncos bounce back under Sean Payton and flip the script?" he asked. "Nothing would surprise me."
