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Vikings vs Broncos Prediction, Picks, Odds | Sunday Night Football Week 11

Michael Crosson
Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert
7 minute read

The 11th Sunday of regular season NFL action concludes with a surprisingly compelling primetime clash between the Minnesota Vikings and Denver Broncos. Coverage begins from Empower Field at Mile High at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC.

Here's everything you need to know about the Vikings vs. Broncos Picks, Predictions, and Odds for Sunday Night Football Week 11 on Sunday, November 18.

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Vikings vs Broncos Betting Prediction & Odds for Sunday Night Football Week 11

Matchup Spread Total Moneyline
Broncos vs
Vikings 		-2.5 (-118)
+2.5 (-104) 		o42.5 (-114)
u42.5 (-106) 		-144
+124

The Broncos were the laughing stock of the league in Russell Wilson’s first campaign with the team last season, as they finished dead-last in the AFC West with a record of 5-12 behind an offense ranked 32nd in points scored and a defense ranked 14th in points allowed. However, in the first few weeks of this season, their laughable status seemed to carry over, but in a completely different way, as the Broncos stumbled out to an ugly 1-3 start under new head coach Sean Payton, while contrarily, ranking 10th in points scored and 32nd in points allowed during that span.

Since Week 4 though, everything has slowly balanced out for this Denver team, especially on the defensive side of the ball, and the results are finally beginning to show in the win column. The Broncos own a record of 4-2 in their last six games, and they enter this week riding a three-game win streak that consists of tough victories over the Bills, Chiefs, and Packers – primarily thanks to their defense allowing just 16 PPG across those three contests.

That said, the public betting audience still isn’t buying into Denver quite yet. But sharps seem to think they deserve a little bit more respect. According to VegasInsider’s Patrick Everson, as of Wednesday, PointsBet was taking a 2-to-1 ticket count on Minnesota plus the points. However, the total sum of money backing Denver was still much larger with a 3-to-1 money count on the Broncos early in the week – in turn, moving this line from the opening number of Denver -2 to -2.5.

Regarding the over-under though, bettors are mostly aligned across the board. The total for this contest fell from 43.5 to 43 and then to 42.5 by Wednesday afternoon due to roughly 61% of tickets and 90% of the money backing the under halfway through the week – and quite frankly, I agree with the vast majority in this spot. The under strikes me as the best play on Sunday night.

The Vikings acquired QB Josh Dobbs from Arizona at the trade deadline, and it was nothing but smooth sailing in his first two outings, highlighted by Minnesota beating Atlanta by a score of 31-28 and New Orleans by a score of 27-19 to extend their win streak to five games entering this week.

Take nothing away from Dobbs. He’s played excellent football all season, and none more impressive than his latest two-week stretch for Minensota, especially given the circumstances. But let’s give credit where it is due. The main reason the Vikings are riding a five game win streak is because their defense has held the opposing team under 20 points in four of their last five contests. While similarly, the Broncos defense has surrendered 19 points or less in three of their last four outings. 

According to Action Network’s Evan Abrams: between night games (25-8) and international morning games (5-0), the under is now a whopping 30-8 in stand-alone matchups this season. And in general, the under is 164-103-3 in night games since 2019. The total has gone under in four straight Broncos games, and six of the last eight Vikings games. 

Twenty points should be enough to win in this contest. Give me the under on Sunday night.

Score Prediction: Broncos 20, Vikings 16
Best Bet: Under 42.5 (-110)

MIN @ DEN Odds

  • Full Game
  • 1H
  • 1Q
  • 2Q
  • 3Q
  • 4Q
  • Spread
  • Total
  • Moneyline
Final
Minnesota Vikings 473 Vikings
+2.5 -104 +1 -115 +1.5 -115 +1 -110 +1 -120 +0.5 -118 +1.5 -136 +1.5 -136 +2.5 -104  
Denver Broncos 474 Broncos
-2.5 -118 -1 -105 -1.5 -105 -1 -110 -1 even -0.5 -102 -1.5 +108 -1.5 +108 -2.5 -118  
Final
Minnesota Vikings 473 Vikings
o43 -110 o21 -110 o20.5 -115 o21 -105 o21 -105 o20.5 -108 o20.5 -120 o20.5 -120 o42.5 -114  
Denver Broncos 474 Broncos
u43 -110 u21 -110 u20.5 -105 u21 -115 u21 -115 u20.5 -112 u20.5 -106 u20.5 -106 u42.5 -106  
Final
Minnesota Vikings 473 Vikings
+120 +115 +116 +115 +105 -102 +108 +108 +124  
Denver Broncos 474 Broncos
-142 -135 -140 -135 -125 -118 -134 -134 -144  
Final
Minnesota Vikings 473 Vikings
+2.5 -104 +0.5 -115 +1.5 -125 N/A +0.5 -105 N/A +1.5 -121 +1.5 -121 +2.5 -104  
Denver Broncos 474 Broncos
-2.5 -118 -0.5 -105 -1.5 +105 N/A -0.5 -115 N/A -1.5 -104 -1.5 -104 -2.5 -118  
Final
Minnesota Vikings 473 Vikings
o43 -110 o20.5 -120 o20.5 -110 N/A o20.5 -120 N/A o20.5 -115 o20.5 -115 o42.5 -114  
Denver Broncos 474 Broncos
u43 -110 u20.5 even u20.5 -110 N/A u20.5 even N/A u20.5 -108 u20.5 -108 u42.5 -106  
Final
Minnesota Vikings 473 Vikings
+120 +105 +110 N/A N/A N/A +114 +114 +124  
Denver Broncos 474 Broncos
-142 -125 -128 N/A N/A N/A -141 -141 -144  
Final
Minnesota Vikings 473 Vikings
+2.5 -104 +0.5 -140 +1.5 -162 +0.5 -155 +0.5 -140 +0.5 -142 -1.5 +138 -1.5 +138 +2.5 -104  
Denver Broncos 474 Broncos
-2.5 -118 -0.5 +120 -1.5 +134 -0.5 +120 -0.5 +118 -0.5 +120 +1.5 -175 +1.5 -175 -2.5 -118  
Final
Minnesota Vikings 473 Vikings
o43 -110 o7.5 +115 o7.5 +112 o7.5 +110 o7.5 +122 o7.5 +120 o7.5 +108 o7.5 +108 o42.5 -114  
Denver Broncos 474 Broncos
u43 -110 u7.5 -135 u7.5 -136 u7.5 -145 u7.5 -145 u7.5 -142 u7.5 -132 u7.5 -132 u42.5 -106  
Final
Minnesota Vikings 473 Vikings
+120 +110 +104 +105 +110 +114 -120 -120 +124  
Denver Broncos 474 Broncos
-142 -130 -128 -140 -130 -135 -104 -104 -144  
Final
Minnesota Vikings 473 Vikings
+2.5 -104 +0.5 -110 +1.5 -134 N/A N/A +0.5 -140 N/A N/A +2.5 -104  
Denver Broncos 474 Broncos
-2.5 -118 -0.5 -110 -1.5 +110 N/A N/A -0.5 +110 N/A N/A -2.5 -118  
Final
Minnesota Vikings 473 Vikings
o43 -110 o12.5 -135 o17.5 +112 N/A N/A o13.5 even N/A N/A o42.5 -114  
Denver Broncos 474 Broncos
u43 -110 u12.5 +115 u17.5 -148 N/A N/A u13.5 -130 N/A N/A u42.5 -106  
Final
Minnesota Vikings 473 Vikings
+120 +120 +110 N/A N/A -102 N/A N/A +124  
Denver Broncos 474 Broncos
-142 -140 -134 N/A N/A -118 N/A N/A -144  
Final
Minnesota Vikings 473 Vikings
+2.5 -104 +0.5 -130 +1.5 -162 N/A N/A +0.5 -142 N/A N/A +2.5 -104  
Denver Broncos 474 Broncos
-2.5 -118 -0.5 +110 -1.5 +134 N/A N/A -0.5 +120 N/A N/A -2.5 -118  
Final
Minnesota Vikings 473 Vikings
o43 -110 o7.5 +110 o10.5 +118 N/A N/A o7.5 -105 N/A N/A o42.5 -114  
Denver Broncos 474 Broncos
u43 -110 u7.5 -130 u10.5 -160 N/A N/A u7.5 -115 N/A N/A u42.5 -106  
Final
Minnesota Vikings 473 Vikings
+120 +110 -100 N/A N/A +102 N/A N/A +124  
Denver Broncos 474 Broncos
-142 -130 -122 N/A N/A -122 N/A N/A -144  
Final
Minnesota Vikings 473 Vikings
+2.5 -104 +0.5 -125 +1.5 -156 N/A N/A +0.5 -130 N/A N/A +2.5 -104  
Denver Broncos 474 Broncos
-2.5 -118 -0.5 +105 -1.5 +128 N/A N/A -0.5 +110 N/A N/A -2.5 -118  
Final
Minnesota Vikings 473 Vikings
o43 -110 o11.5 -115 o11.5 -112 N/A N/A o12.5 -115 N/A N/A o42.5 -114  
Denver Broncos 474 Broncos
u43 -110 u11.5 -105 u11.5 -108 N/A N/A u12.5 -105 N/A N/A u42.5 -106  
Final
Minnesota Vikings 473 Vikings
+120 +110 -102 N/A N/A +102 N/A N/A +124  
Denver Broncos 474 Broncos
-142 -130 -120 N/A N/A -122 N/A N/A -144  

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Vikings vs Broncos Betting Resources

Date: Sunday, November 19, 2023
Matchup: NFC North vs. AFC West
Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
Location: Denver, Colorado
Time-TV: NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET

Click here for Vegas Insider senior reporter Patrick Everson's full NFL Odds Week 11 Report containing spreads, lines, and trends for every NFL matchup.

Use our BetMGM bonus code before making your Vikings vs. Broncos pick to get bonus bets!

Minnesota Vikings Betting Analysis

The Vikings appeared to have the rug ripped from beneath them a few weeks ago, as Minnesota entered Week 8 following back-to-back wins to get to 3-4, but then, a potential doomsday arrived as Kirk Cousins went down with a season ending Achilles injury during the team’s third straight victory, joining superstar WR Justin Jefferson on the sidelines, and setting the stage for an unsettling future.

However, to the surprise of most fans, Josh Dobbs has seemingly arrived to save the day after stepping in to help extend their win streak to five games. But personally, I’m just having a tough time believing that Dobbs is going to continue to complete over 66% of his passes for three TDs and zero INTs like he has the last two weeks. In 11 career starts, Dobbs owns a record of 2-9, and he’s completed 62.7% of his passes to go along with 13 TDs and eight INTs. 

Prior to joining the Vikings, Dobbs completed 62.8% of his passes for eight TDs and five INTs in eight starts for Arizona this season. Minnesota may be the most desirable landing spot of Dobbs’ career thus far, but I still believe he’s due for some regression.

nfl-vikings-broncos-sunday-night-football-week-11
The Vikings are 5-0 SU in their last five games. (Getty)

Denver Broncos Betting Analysis

In the aftermath of Kirk Cousins’ season ending Achilles injury, the Vikings shocked the world by immediately posting two of their best offensive performances of the season in back-to-back wins over Atlanta and New Orleans with Josh Dobbs at QB. However, I think we need to pump the brakes on the Dobbs hype train for now. Sunday night isn’t going to be a cakewalk.

This week, Dobbs draws a matchup against a Broncos defense that hasn’t surrendered more than 22 points in a game since Week 5 despite squaring off against the Chiefs and Bills during that span – and prior to Cousins’ injury, the Vikings offense was averaging just 21.1 points per game.

On the flip side for Denver, the Broncos offense is averaging just 19.2 points per game since Week 5, and they still managed to win four of their last six contests. I think this game is destined to be a competitive low-scoring battle between a pair of teams that desperately need a win in order to keep their playoff hopes alive. The Broncos are comfortable with the brand of football they are playing right now, and there’s a good chance that we’ll see Minnesota fall in line. I’m taking the under on Sunday night.

Vikings vs Broncos Betting Trends

  • The Vikings are 5-0 ATS in their last five games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of Denver's last five games.
  • The Broncos are 6-12 SU in their last 18 games.
  • The Broncos are 2-4 ATS in their last six home games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of Minnesota's last eight games.
  • The Vikings are 5-0 SU in their last five games.

Where to place a bet this NFL Season?

  • Use our exclusive BetMGM Bonus Code VIBONUS1500 to unlock BetMGM’s welcome offer for new sportsbook users!
  • Compare the latest NFL Odds from the best sportsbooks before placing a bet on this week's games.
  • Check out the North Carolina Sportsbooks just before they launch legal online sports betting.

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson
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