2028 Republican Nominee For President Odds: J.D. Vance Leads

Dylan Wilkerson Sports Betting Expert

9 minute read

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Here are the current odds for the Republican Nominee for the President in 2028:

Presidential election odds for 2028 feels so far away, but the presidential election will be here before we know it. The Republican party needs to choose who they are going to nominate to face the democratic frontrunner. Be sure to check out the latest democratic presidential nominee odds.

Prediction markets like Kalshi offer odds for the next Republican Nominee for President. Below, we will dive into the latest odds.

Here's everything you need to know about 2028 republican nominee for president odds, ahead of the 2028 presidential election: action, line movement and betting trends, with insights from prediction markets and the current odds. Check out the best prediction market apps to buy and sell contracts on who will be the next Rupublican Nominee for President.

Republican Nominee For President Odds

The republican party is faced with finding the new face of their party, and Donald Trump is currently serving his 2nd and final term as president. Names in the conversation include J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio, and Florida governor Ron DeSantis.

Updated on 2/13/26

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J.D. Vance is the current favorite, to no one's surprise. He is seen as the candidate most likely to continue the MAGA movement in Trump's absence. candidates also include Donald Trump Jr., Marjorie Taylor Greene, Tucker Carlson, and Ted Cruz.

Here are the current odds for the Presidential Republican Nominee:

How Does This Prediction Market Work?

Prediction markets are online platforms where people trade shares on the outcome of real-life events. In this case, it is who the republican nominee for President will be in 2028.

How They Actually Work – Step by Step

1. An event is created with clear resolution rules Example: “Will J.D. Vance be the Republican nominee in 2028?” Resolution source is usually unambiguous. In the case for this particular market on Kalshi, the outcome will be verified by the Republican Party.
2. Two (or more) contracts are issued
   • “Yes” shares
   • “No” shares (For multi-outcome events there can be many: Trump, Harris, Newsom, Vance, etc.)
3. You buy shares in the outcome you think will happen
   • If a “Yes” share costs 32¢, the market is saying there is a 32% chance it happens.
   • If a “No” share costs 68¢ → 68% chance it doesn’t happen.
4. Prices move with buying and selling
   • If new information comes out that makes “Yes” more likely, people buy “Yes” shares → price rises (e.g., from 32¢ → 58¢).
   • “No” shares automatically fall because Yes + No always = $1.00.
5. At expiration
   • If the event happens → “Yes” shares pay $1 each, “No” shares pay $0.
   • If it doesn’t happen → “Yes” = $0, “No” = $1. You can sell your shares anytime before expiration to lock in profit/loss.

Simple Profit/Loss Example

You buy 1,000 “Yes” shares at 25¢ each → cost = $250 Later the price rises to 75¢ because new polls look good.

You have two choices:

• Sell now: 1,000 × $0.75 = $750 → $500 profit
• Hold until expiration:
  • If Yes wins → 1,000 × $1 = $1,000 → $750 profit
  • If No wins → 1,000 × $0 = $0 → –$250 loss

Why Prediction Markets Are Often More Accurate Than Polls

• Real money on the line: people research and think hard
• Immediate feedback: prices adjust instantly to new info
• Incentives align: you profit by being right and early
• Marginal trader effect: the people with the best information or models tend to dominate the price

Studies (Iowa Electronic Markets since 1988, PredictIt, Polymarket 2024 election) repeatedly show they beat polls, pundits, and experts, especially close to the event.

Risks & Caveats

• Liquidity can be low on niche questions means big swings.
• You can lose 100% of money invested on a contract

In short: Prediction markets turn beliefs into dollar amounts, aggregate information through trading, and pay people for being right. The current price is the crowd’s best guess of the probability, and it’s often accurate.

Dylan Wilkerson

Dylan Wilkerson has over 5 years of experience reporting and analyzing the sports betting industry for various sites. His portfolio includes work for SportsHandle and Action Network, in addition to VegasInsider. His favorite sports are the NFL, College Football, The PGA Tour, the LIV Tour, and Cricket. Dylan has a broad and deep understanding of various sports-related topics. More from Dylan Wilkerson