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Bundesliga Odds and Picks - Matchday 26


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The Bundesliga will return to the pitch on Saturday May 16 with a nine-game slate spread out over three days.

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The top-flight German League is receiving a ton of action at the sportsbooks and we've got Bundesliga Odds and Picks locked and loaded.

Saturday's Bundesliga Picks - May 16, 2020

  • Match: Borussia Dortmund vs. Schalke 04
  • Odds: Borussia Dortmund (-195), Schalke 04 (+500), Draw (+345)
  • Bet Now at DraftKings
  • Date: Saturday, 9:30 a.m. ET
  • TV: Fox Sports 1 (FS1)

Football in Europe kicks back off with the Revierderby between Borussia Dortmund and Schalke 04 at an empty Signal Iduna Park. Dortmund lie four points off the league leaders Bayern Munich, 14 points ahead of Schalke in sixth. These matches are not easy to call and the Bundesliga Odds and Picks will have varying opinions on this match.

How much, if at all, does home advantage count? Is there any ‘form’ to go by after two months without playing? But all things being normal, Dortmund look good value favourites. Erling Braut Haland and Jadon Sancho have been revelations for them this year, and have ably made Dortmund less reliant on Marco Reus who, once again, is injured.

Schalke had won just one in ten before the lockdown, and they could be in for another defeat here. But one suspicion I have is that these strange, fan-less games may result in a high goals tally.

The Bundesliga is high-scoring at the best of times, and the factor of derby matches producing fewer goals may not exist in a ground with no fans and a less pressured atmosphere surrounding the game. I expect Dortmund to win and I also believe both teams will score on Saturday morning.

Tip: Borussia Dortmund to win and both teams to score

  • Match: Hoffenheim vs. Hertha Berlin
  • Odds: Hoffenheim (+115), Hertha Berlin (+230), Draw (+255)
  • Bet Now at DraftKings
  • Date: Saturday, 9:30 a.m. ET
  • TV: Fox Sports Go

Games involving Hoffenheim and Hertha Berlin this season have averaged a touch over three goals, so this should be an entertatining affair in Mannheim. Hertha are still in slight relegation danger, with Hoffenheim safely in mid-table, and so the pressure might be off, leading to a high-scorer.

Hertha put three past Dusseldorf shortly before the lockdown, while Hoffenheim have dealt reasonably well with the losses of manager Julian Nagelsmann and key players Kerem Demirbay, Nico Schulz, Nadiem Amiri and Joelintion.

Andrej Kramaric is a lethal weapon up front for them and could be good value to score first in the Bundesliga Odds player betting markets.

Tip: Both teams to score at 4/6

  • Match: Augsburg vs. Wolfsburg
  • Odds: Augsburg (+240), Wolfsburg (+115), Draw (+240)
  • Bet Now at DraftKings
  • Date: Saturday, 9:30 a.m. ET
  • TV: Fox Sports Go

Augsburg hit a rotten run of form in February and March leaving them five points off the relegation play-off place, but all in all they are a reasonably good side who, according to most stats, should find themselves comfortably clear of trouble when (and if) the season ever finishes.

Their recent bad run included matches against everyone in the top five, and their home record has been broadly good. Wolfsburg will definitely miss striker Woug Weghorst, who is suspended. He has scored nearly a third of their goals this season. At 12/5 Augsburg look worth a punt as an outsider in your Bundesliga Picks.

Tip: Augsburg to win at 12/5

Sunday's Bundesliga Picks - May 17, 2020

  • Match: Koln vs. Mainz
  • Odds: Koln (-115), Mainz (+300), Draw (+275)
  • Bet Now at DraftKings
  • Date: Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET
  • TV: Fox Sports 1 (FS1)

Koln were among the favorites to relegation, and justified that status at the start of the season. But a run of excellent wins - 4-0 vs. Freiburg, 5-0 at Hertha, 3-0 vs. Schalke has pulled them up into mid-table. Their opponents on Sunday are Mainz, who are hovering four points above the relegation places.

Mainz average to concede over two goals a game - they were smashed 8-0 at RB Leipzig. Koln’s games average 3.36 goals per game, and given my expectation for a slightly higher goal line in the first weeks of post-lockdown football, this game looks a prime contender for over 3.5 goals. Expect a cracker and ride the high side early on Sunday.

Tip: Over 3.5 goals at 13/8

  • Match: Union Berlin vs. Bayern Munich
  • Odds: Union Berlin (+1250), Bayern Munich (-485), Draw (+565)
  • Bet Now at DraftKings
  • Date: Sunday, 12:00 p.m. ET
  • TV: Fox Sports 1 (FS1)

Union Berlin are a huge 14/1 to win this match, but their home record has been the reason for their success on their first season in the Bundesliga. They have won six of their 12 home games. If we treat these games like the first game of the season, that tends to make shock results more likely.

The flip-side is the question of how much Union’s home advantage will be compromised by the lack of fans. The Alten Foresterei Stadium is a characterful, hostile venue when full, but home advantage is a curious thing which often does not seem to correlate with how intimidating a ground is known for being.

In any case Union are a team to be respected on their own turf, and Bayern may not find this one easy and bettors should be weary of backing the road favorite in our Bundesliga Picks.

Tip: Union Berlin +2 at 1/1

Where is the Money going on Saturday May 16? 

Our friends at DraftKings, a major US Sportsbook, is receiving plenty of action for the Matchday 26 card and you can follow the betting trends below. 

Bundesliga Betting Splits for Saturday May 16
  • % Handle - Total Money
  • % Bets - Total Bets
  • Odds and Trends Subject to Change (T&C's Apply, 21+, Legal US States Only)
Bundesliga Betting Trends - Per DraftKings
Borussia Dortmund vs. FC Schalke 04
Wager Odds % Handle % Bets
Borussia Dortmund -200 88% 86%
Draw +340 5% 6%
FC Schalke 04 +480 6% 8%

Bundesliga Betting Trends - Per DraftKings
RB Leipzig vs. SC Freiburg
Wager Odds % Handle % Bets
RB Leipzig -335 85% 91%
Draw +440 5% 3%
SC Freiburg +800 10% 6%

Bundesliga Betting Trends - Per DraftKings
FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg
Wager Odds % Handle % Bets
FC Augsburg +225 7% 11%
Draw +240 14% 17%
VfL Wolfsburg +118 79% 71%

Bundesliga Betting Trends - Per DraftKings
TSG Hoffenheim vs Hertha BSC
Wager Odds % Handle % Bets
TSG Hoffenheim +114 72% 67%
Draw +245 17% 15%
Hertha BSC +230 11% 18%

Bundesliga Betting Trends - Per DraftKings
Fortuna Dusseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07
Wager Odds % Handle % Bets
Fortuna Dusseldorf +114 74% 72%
Draw +250 14% 18%
SC Paderborn 07 +225 12% 10%

Bundesliga Betting Trends - Per DraftKings
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Borussia Monchengladbach
Wager Odds % Handle % Bets
Eintracht Frankfurt +200 19% 16%
Draw +245 13% 13%
Monchengladbach +128 68% 71%

What is the Matchday 26 Schedule?

If you're following your Bundesliga action this weekend, then check out the schedule below and don't forget about Expert Picks from our top handicappers! 

Fox Sports 1 (FS1) and Fox Sports 2 (FS2) will be airing five nationally televised games plus the Fox Sports Go streaming service is available in select areas.

Saturday, May 16

  • Borussia Dortmund vs. Schalke 04 (9:30 a.m. ET)
  • RB Leipzig vs. SC Freiburg (9:30 a.m. ET)
  • Hoffenheim vs. Hertha BSC (9:30 a.m. ET)
  • Fortuna Dusseldorf vs. SC Paderborn (9:30 a.m. ET)
  • Augsburg vs. Wolfsburg (9:30 a.m. ET)
  • Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Borussia Monchengladbach (12:30 p.m. ET)

Sunday, May 17

  • FC Koln vs. Mainz 05 (9:30 a.m. ET)
  • Union Berlin vs. Bayern Munich (12:00 p.m. ET)

Monday, May 18

  • Werder Bremen vs. Bayer Leverkusen (2:30 p.m. ET)

  
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