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Italy vs. England Predictions, Odds, Preview

 

July 9, 2021
by Toby Maxtone-Smith
Soccer Expert
VegasInsider.com

The final of Euro 2020 sees Italy play England at Wembley.

It would be the second time Italy have lifted the trophy; England are in their first final of any competition since the 1966 World Cup.

The match will kick off at 3:00 p.m. ET and will air live on ESPN.

Popular Euro 2020 Betting Resources

Italy vs. England Predictions

England are likely to stick with a 4-3-3 formation, meaning Mason Mount will drop into press Italy’s midfield as a number 10. Italy too are likely to be unchanged, with Emerson continuing at left-back in the absence of Leonardo Spinazzola.

England look good value to lift the trophy at 4/5. If they can stifle the Italian midfield they certainly have the edge in attacking areas.

Harry Kane is on a different level from Ciro Immobile, and neither of Italy’s wingers can beat a man like Raheem Sterling, who looks a good first goalscorer pick at 7/1.

Kane can drag Italy’s good but ageing centre-backs out of position by dropping deep, allowing Sterling and Saka to run in behind.

England closed out the match against Denmark fantastically and finally look ready to lift their first trophy for 55 years.

Score Prediction: England 1 Italy 0

Best Bets

  • England to lift the trophy -120
  • First Goal Scorer - Raheem Sterling +700
  • Both Teams to Score - No (-155)

Betting Odds - Italy vs. England

This is the right final.

England and Italy have been the best two sides at the tournament and bookmakers are struggling to split them.

Italy are ranked very slightly better, but home advantage means England are the +165 favourites to win in normal time.

Italy are +200 and the draw is short at 195 - both semifinals ended 1-1 after 90 minutes.

England are 4/5 to lift the trophy with Italy 10/11.

Over 2.5 goals is +155 with under 2.5 (-200).

Both teams to score is an 11/10 shot.

Odds per BetMGM - Subject to Change

Italy vs. England Betting Resources

  • Matchup: Group A Winner vs. Group D Winner
  • Expert Picks: Vegas Insiders
  • Venue: Wembley Stadium
  • Location: London, England
  • Date: Sunday, July 11, 2021
  • Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN

Italy Betting Outlook

Italy will probably dominate the ball.

Their big strength over England is in midfield, where Jorginho, Niccolo Barrella and Marco Verratti possess far greater technical quality than the English duo of Kalvin Phillips and Declan Rice.

But they were largely outplayed by Spain in their semifinal.

The Italians prevailed on penalties in a true classic of a match but Spain had 16 shots to Italy’s 7 and had 71% of the possession.

The Azzurri have only really impressed once in the knockouts - in the 2-1 win over Belgium - but are still extremely dangerous opponents. They are perhaps the team least likely to be phased by the hostile atmosphere they will face.

England are likely to stick with a 4-3-3 formation, meaning Mason Mount will drop into press Italy’s midfield as a number 10. Italy too are likely to be unchanged, with Emerson continuing at left-back in the absence of Leonardo Spinazzola.

Inside the Stats - Euro 2020 Matches

  • Straight Up: 4-0-2
  • Over-Under: 3-2-1
  • Both Teams to Score: 3-3
  • Goals For: 12
  • Goals Against: 3
  • Goals Differential: +9

Euro 2020 Log - Italy

Group - Italy 3 Turkey 0
Group - Italy 3 Switzerland 0
Group - Italy 1 Wales 0
Round of 16 - Italy 2 Austria 1 (Extra Time, 0-0 After 90)
Quarterfinals - Italy 2 Belgium 1
Semifinals - Italy 1 Spain 1 (Italy 4-2 Penalties)


Italy has scored a regulation time goal in five of its six Euro 2020 tournament matches. (AP)

England Betting Outlook

England will be backed by a huge, partisan crowd at Wembley.

They have played six of their seven matches there this tournament and that is undoubtedly going to be a factor in the final.

Their 2-1 semifinal win over Denmark was not a classic, but it was a fully deserved win.

Denmark’s goal came from a free-kick and England’s defense, which has been the strongest of any at the tournament, allowed them no big chances after that.

They were dangerous down the flanks, especially Raheem Sterling, who has arguably been the tournament’s best player.

But the fact that the goals came from an own goal and a penalty rebound suggests that creativity may still be a problem for England.

Inside the Stats - Euro 2020 Matches

  • Straight Up: 4-0-2
  • Over-Under: 1-4-1
  • Both Teams to Score: 1-5
  • Goals For: 10
  • Goals Against: 1
  • Goals Differential: +9

Euro 2020 Log - England

Group - England 1 Croatia 0
Group - England 0 Scotland 0
Group - England 1 Czech Republic 0
Round of 16 - England 2 Germany 0
Quarterfinals - England 4 Ukraine 0
Semifinals - England 2 Denmark 1 (Extra Time, 1-1 After 90)


Harry Maguire and the England defense have only allowed one goal in their six Euro 2020 matches. (AP)

  
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