EPL Matchday 8 Picks, Predictions, Odds
Andrew Beasley is back for best bets, predictions and picks for Premier League Matchday 8 fixtures that begin on Friday, September 16.
Aston Villa vs. Southampton
- Date: Friday, September 16
- Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Villa Park
- Location: Birmingham, England
Best Bet: Draw (+260)
Southampton have yet to have the same result in successive matches this season, their inconsistency making them difficult to forecast. Aston Villa won this fixture 4-0 last season but the two prior meetings ended 1-0 and a closer game looks on the cards here.
While both teams have only had one draw so far this season, the Saints have had just one match settled by more than a single goal while Villa have had two. The expected goal data suggests this is the most likely draw of the weekend, probably because the 12th ranked home team for xG difference hosts the 11th best away side. There won’t be much between these sides this week.
Nottingham Forest vs. Fulham
- Date: Friday, September 16
- Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: The City Ground
- Location: Nottingham, England
Best Bet: Nottingham Forest ML (+190)
The last four meetings of these teams have been won by whichever side was away from home. Indeed, Fulham are the favorites for this match too. Yet the underlying numbers favor Forest. Although they lost 3-2 against Bournemouth last time out, the Cherries scored three times from just 0.9 expected goals which won’t happen very often.
And while there are explanatory factors – not least having to play Arsenal and Tottenham – the fact remains Fulham haven’t won away from home since early April. Forest to take the three points here.
Wolves vs. Manchester City
- Date: Saturday, September 17
- Time: 7:30 a.m. ET
- Venue: Molineux Stadium
- Location: Wolverhampton, England
Best Bet: Man City Win to Nil (+135)
There are several matches this weekend where a ‘favorite wins to nil’ outcome looks likely. This one is the most strongly favoured, whether you look at the limited data from 2022/23 or the greater sample that is last season.
That City are expected to win is taken as read. With Wolves, their attack has generated barely over one expected goal per game and their fixture list has been relatively kind. Although they have been to Spurs, their other five matches have been against the quintet of teams directly above them in the table at the start of the weekend.
If they can’t create much against the mid-table sides, Manchester City should be able to hold them at bay and win without conceding. Diego Costa is good but he won’t make much difference to Wolves’ offense here.
Newcastle vs. Bournemouth
- Date: Saturday, September 17
- Time: 10:00 a.m. ET
- Venue: St. James' Park
- Location: Newcastle, England
Best Bet: Newcastle Win to Nil (+145)
Bournemouth look to have improved since they sacked Scott Parker, having taken four points from their two matches since. However, they have been outshot 28 to 13 in those games, with a 3.0 to 1.3 expected goal total.
They will also face a Newcastle side who have looked strong defensively this season – disregard their matches against Manchester City and Liverpool and they’ve conceded just once in their other four games. With that foundation they should win without conceding. Bournemouth not to score at +110 looks an enticing bet too.
Tottenham vs. Leicester
- Date: Saturday, September 17
- Time: 12:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
- Location: London, England
Best Bet: Tottenham -1.5 (+130)
Few teams have taken greater advantage of Leicester City’s defensive woes in the last year or two than Tottenham Hotspur. They have scored 10 goals across the last three meetings, winning every time.
They should net a few here, and not just because the Foxes are one of only three teams yet to keep a clean sheet in the Premier League this season. Leicester finished eighth last season and their five away defeats against the teams in the top seven were all by at least two goals. With Spurs and Leicester having headed further in different directions since the beginning of 2022/23, the former should overcome the handicap line.
Everton vs. West Ham
- Date: Sunday, September 18
- Time: 9:15 a.m. ET
- Venue: Goodison Park
- Location: Liverpool, England
Best Bet: Under 2.5 (-130)
West Ham have won three of the last four meetings, a run which includes a pair of 1-0 victories at Goodison Park. They have also been unlucky on the road this season. They failed to score at Nottingham Forest despite generating over two expected goals and were on the wrong end of a widely condemned VAR decision when losing 2-1 at Chelsea last time out.
If they weren’t playing away in Denmark on Thursday night, they would look a good moneyline bet. As that may hamper them, we’ll take Under 2.5 goals. These teams have just five players between them who’ve scored in the Premier League this season.
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