EPL Matchday 11 Picks, Predictions, Odds
Andrew Beasley is back for best bets, predictions and picks for Premier League Matchday 11 fixtures that begin on Friday, October 14th.
Brentford vs. Brighton and Hove Albion
- Date: Friday, October 14
- Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Gtech Community Stadium
- Location: Brentford, England
Best Bet: Over 2.5 Goals (+100)
Brentford vs. Brighton is a gambler’s derby, with both clubs owned by men who made a lot of money through betting. Their teams reflect this, with the Seagulls and the Bees usually having impressive underlying performance as their owners know the importance of strong numbers.
It makes this a tough game to call. The three meetings in the last year (including a pre- season friendly) all ended in low scoring wins to nil. However, with both teams experiencing large expected goal figures at both ends of the field, there should be over 2.5 goals in the Friday night match.
Fulham vs. AFC Bournemouth
- Date: Saturday, October 15
- Time: 10:00 a.m. ET
- Venue: Craven Cottage
- Location: London, England
Best Bet: Fulham ML (-120)
This is a match week in which the away sides are largely expected to dominate. The game at Craven Cottage might be another based on the recent form, with Fulham having lost three of their last four matches while Bournemouth are unbeaten in five under Gary O’Neil.
Yet the Cherries have defied expected goals to a remarkable level in that period. Although Fulham are favourites, their price should be shorter based on the data. Both meetings ended 1-1 last season, so there may not be much to split them, but Marco Silva’s team should have enough to take the three points.
Tottenham Hotspur vs. Everton
- Date: Saturday, October 15
- Time: 12:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
- Location: London, England
Best Bet: Tottenham to win to nil (+160)
Tottenham won 5-0 when these teams last met, back in March. Everton have improved a lot since then but a defeat without scoring looks on the cards for Frank Lampard’s side.
While their away stats look encouraging, Everton haven’t travelled to a side who go into the weekend in the top half of the table. They only scored three goals away to the Premier League’s top six last season and Tottenham should win this match to nil. That has been the outcome in three of the last five meetings in north London.
Manchester United vs. Newcastle
- Date: Sunday, October 16
- Time: 9:00 a.m. ET
- Venue: Old Trafford
- Location: Manchester, England
Best Bet: Both teams to score – Yes (-150)
When the Uniteds of Manchester and Newcastle clash, they usually both find the net. It has occurred in the last five meetings in total, and also the last five at Old Trafford.
The Red Devils have been triumphant in all those home matches and are favoured to win again. However, the underlying data suggests selecting a Newcastle win is a good value play.
The Magpies have lost every away match against the big six sides since the start of last season though. As such, a ‘yes’ in the ‘both teams to score’ market looks far safer.
Southampton vs. West Ham United
- Date: Sunday, October 16
- Time: 9:00 a.m. ET
- Venue: St. Mary's Stadium
- Location: Southampton, England
Best Bet: Draw (+245)
Neither of these sides has started 2022/23 particularly well and they may not pull too far away from the relegation zone here either.
Southampton won the last meeting though that was in the FA Cup. More pertinent here is that the last two clashes at St Marys Stadium ended goalless and the one prior to that only saw one goal.
There won’t be much between the teams once again, and this looks to be the most likely draw in this match week.
Liverpool vs. Manchester City
- Date: Sunday, October 16
- Time: 11:30 a.m. ET
- Venue: Anfield
- Location: Liverpool, England
Best Bet: Manchester City to win and both teams to score (+195)
Liverpool will rarely have been such a long price to win at Anfield yet the stats argue they should be even longer. Jurgen Klopp’s side haven’t had too much trouble scoring goals (only the top two in the table have averaged more per game), it’s at the back where the problems lie.
And their defensive frailties look ripe for the picking by Manchester City, who look fully set to collect a rare win at Liverpool. As both teams have scored in the Cityzens’ last four matches against a fellow member of the big six, that outcome should occur too.
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