EPL Matchday 12 Picks, Predictions, Odds
Andrew Beasley is back for best bets, predictions and picks for Premier League Matchday 12 fixtures that begin on Tuesday, October 18th.
Brighton vs. Nottingham Forest
- Date: Tuesday, October 18
- Time: 2:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Amex Stadium
- Location: Falmer, England
Best Bet: Brighton to win to nil (+110)
Backing Brighton to win any game is a risky strategy. Not because their performances are poor, far from it. But as we saw at Brentford on Friday – 21 shots, seven on target, no goals scored – they often fail to make their dominance count.
They shouldn’t have any issues against Nottingham Forest, though, as the visitors continue to struggle to mould a team from their summer signings. You can be certain Brighton will dominate the stats, only their erratic finishing can prevent them from winning to nil.
Crystal Palace vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Date: Tuesday, October 18
- Time: 3:15 p.m. ET
- Venue: Selhurst Park
- Location: London, England
Best Bet: Draw(+230)
While none of the last six meetings of Crystal Palace and Wolverhampton Wanderers has ended in a draw, only one of the previous four at Selhurst Park has been settled by more than a single goal.
It has been a similar tale for Wolves in 2022/23. They have struggled, and recently sacked Bruno Lage, but their games against fellow bottom-half sides have almost all been close. A 2-0 loss at West Ham aside, they have drawn 0-0 or won or lost by one.
With Palace joint-second in the division for draws, this should be another stalemate for the Eagles.
Bournemouth vs. Southampton
- Date: Wednesday, October 19
- Time: 2:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Vitality Stadium
- Location: Bournemouth, England
Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals (-135)
The team playing at home hasn’t won any of the last five matches between these sides, though with Bournemouth in excellent form that run could end here.
They have won two and drawn four of their six matches under the caretaker management of Gary O’Neil and are the only unbeaten team in the Premier League in that period. Southampton have taken just four points in their last six, recording the third worst record in the division.
But either way, both teams have generally been struggling to score goals while being outside the bottom three for defensive stats. This is the standout candidate to be 0-0 this match week, and that can be backed at +850 if you agree. A wager on under 2.5 goals is far safer though and covers the likely narrow home win which should occur.
Brentford vs. Chelsea
- Date: Wednesday, October 19
- Time: 2:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Gtech Community Stadium
- Location: Brentford, England
Best Bet: Brentford or Draw (+115)
Brentford’s 4-1 win at Stamford Bridge in April was one of the most stunning results the Premier League saw last season. At +8000 for a repeat, we can safely rule that out.
But the idea of the Bees taking something from the game can be ruled in. Chelsea’s away record is very patchy this season. While they have won both games on the road under Graham Potter, they needed a stoppage time long range blast at Crystal Palace and conceded 2.3 expected goals in their victory at Aston Villa on Sunday.
With their quality, they could easily win this match. The big teams haven’t had too much joy at Brentford since their promotion, though, and Thomas Frank’s side can draw or win this game.
Newcastle United vs. Everton
- Date: Wednesday, October 19
- Time: 2:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: St. James' Park
- Location: Newcastle, England
Best Bet: Newcastle United to win and both teams to score (+240)
Matches between Newcastle and Everton normally feature several goals, and this is particularly true at St James’ Park. The last four clashes have all witnessed both teams scoring and at least three goals.
The home side have won the last two while conceding one each time, and this game feels lined up to do likewise. While Everton’s defensive stats have not been as good as their goals conceded record implies, they have been averaging over one expected goal per away match in 2022/23. Frank Lampard’s side will go down fighting by scoring in a loss.
Fulham vs. Aston Villa
- Date: Thursday, October 20
- Time: 2:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Craven Cottage
- Location: London, England
Best Bet: Aston Villa ML (+150)
Aston Villa have seen the biggest negative difference between their expected and actual points in the 2022/23 Premier League. Their 2-0 loss to Chelsea was a perfect example of this and Steven Gerrard’s side theoretically deserve eight points more than they have earned.
At the opposite end of the scale, only two teams have overachieved by more than Fulham, and that’s with Marco Silva’s side earning the joint-most penalties. The xG stats make Villa look a very good value play, and they will have few better opportunities to collect their first away win of the campaign.
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