Champions League Matchday 5 Picks, Predictions, Odds

Oliver Ellison is back for best bets, predictions and picks for Champions League Matchday 5 fixtures that span Tuesday, October 25 and Wednesday, October 26.

Updated on 03/01/2024
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Salzburg vs. Chelsea

Date: Tuesday, Oct. 25, 2022
Time: 12:45 p.m. ET
Venue: Red Bull Arena Salzburg
Location: Salzburg, Austria

Best Bet: Chelsea ML (-130)

Chelsea began the Graham Potter era with a 1-1 tie against Salzburg in September and six weeks later the next boss has gotten into his groove. The Blues are motoring along nicely, having gone undefeated since sacking Thomas Tuchel.

This eight game run under Potter has produced five wins and three ties. The coach is still trying to work out his strongest XI and on Saturday began making substitutions before half time of the Manchester United game.

One could argue that’s the sign of a manager who is willing to make big calls. Others would say it shows he got the team selection wrong in the first place. Either way, there’s no denying Chelsea is in top form and, while Salzburg are also going strong, the Blues have the quality to secure a win here.


Sevilla vs. Copenhagen

Date: Tuesday, Oct. 25, 2022
Time: 12:45 p.m. ET
Venue: Ramon Sanchez-Pizjuan
Location: Sevilla, Spain

Best Bet: Copenhagen ML (+600)

Both Sevilla and F.C. Copenhagen have sacked their head coaches since these teams last met in September. Argentine Jorge Sampaoli takes over in Seville, having managed the team briefly in the mid-2010s. Jacob Neestrup, the highly-talented 34-year-old coach, is now in charge of Copenhagen.

It means predicting where this game is tricky. The two teams tied 0-0 in Parken Stadium last month in a game of few major chances. Copenhagen found their defensive solidity in the recent 0-0 tie with Manchester City, but rode their luck all the same.

The odds scream at a Sevilla win here, but are so short that they’re practically not worth betting on. Instead, Copenhagen are at an interesting price at +600 to steal a win. This young Danish team could well surprise bettors this midweek, and are worth a small punt.

Dortmund vs. Manchester City

Date: Tuesday, Oct. 25, 2022
Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
Location: Dortmund, Germany

Best Bet: Over 2.5 (+130)

This game could go one of both ways. Either it opens up with both Borussia Dortmund and Manchester City set out to score as many as possible. Or it closes off and becomes a cagey affair inside Signal Iduna Park.

Let’s hope for the former. With Erling Haaland, Phil Foden and Kevin De Bruyne on fire, City have a potent offense that can scare any team in the world. But Dortmund also boasts Jude Bellingham, Julian Brandt and Thorgan Hazard, and waltzed past Stuttgart 5-0 on Saturday.

City beat Dortmund 2-1 in Matchday 2, and could arguably have scored a hat full more. Saying that, the Germans also had their chances. With two teams boasting exceptional forward lines, it’s a near surety that we’ll get goals in Germany. It banking on a minimum four doesn’t seem too outlandish.


Club Brugge vs. FC Porto

Date: Wednesday, Oct. 26, 2022
Time: 12:45 p.m. ET
Venue: Jan Breydelstadion
Location: Brugge, Belgium

Best Bet: Club Brugge ML (+250)

One sign of a good tipster is when they get their picks right. Another sign is when they admit to their mistakes. We’ll own up to the fact we’ve twice tipped against Club Brugge in this Champions League campaign, and twice been proved wrong.

Club Brugge are the fairytale story of this season’s Champions League. A team with a fraction of the budget of the others in Group B, currently sitting top of the pool and within Club Brugge crushed Porto 4-0 in Portugal last month and are a good price to win again here.

Since that loss Porto have been on a five-game unbeaten run, which ended with a 1-0 loss to rivals Benfica on Friday. They beat Bayer Leverkusen home and away, and look good to at least finish second in this group. But at +250 Club Brugge are a great price to win yet again and secure top spot.

Ajax vs. Liverpool

Date: Wednesday, Oct. 26, 2022
Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Johan Cruijff Arena
Location: Amsterdam, Netherlands

Best Bet: Ajax/Draw Double Chance (-105)

It’s a brave bettor who wagers against Liverpool in the Champions League. But the way Jurgen Klopp’s season is going, there would be no surprise if Ajax takes maximum points from this encounter. The Dutch giants are riding high in the Eredivisie, have scored 11 goals in their last two games, and came close to beating Liverpool at Anfield last month.

Liverpool, meanwhile, is bang out of form. The team beat Manchester City, scraped a win over West Ham but then lost 1-0 to lowly Nottingham Forest at the weekend. The consistency that has underpinned Klopp’s tenure on Merseyside has evaporated.

And this means a team low on confidence, low on form and low on inspiration heads to the Dutch capital almost expecting a beating. Ajax may not be able to deliver a win, but they’re a good bet on the double chance to avoid defeat.

Napoli vs. Rangers

Date: Wednesday, Oct. 26, 2022
Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Diego Armando Maradona
Location: Napoli, Italy

Best Bet: Napoli-Napoli (-125)

If there is one bet to act as a banker on any parlay this midweek it’s Napoli to beat Rangers. And there are two big reasons for this. The first is that Napoli, top of Serie A, was on a 10-game winning streak heading into the weekend’s game with Roma*.

The second, and perhaps more pertinent, is that rarely do sports betting sites price an underdog in the Champions League at such bad odds as they have Rangers. The Scottish side is +1150 to win this game. That is a ridiculous price but shows just how unlikely Rangers are to win here.

And so, bettors can expect a routine home win in Naples, one that maintains the momentum of Luciano Spalletti’s juggernaut, and condemns Rangers to yet more misery.