EPL Matchday 14 Picks, Predictions, Odds
Andrew Beasley is back for best bets, predictions and picks for Premier League Matchday 14 fixtures that begin on Saturday, October 29th.
Leicester vs. Manchester City
- Date: Saturday, October 29
- Time: 7:30 a.m. ET
- Venue: King Power Stadium
- Location: Leicester, England
Best Bet: Manchester City to win to nil (+137)
After a wretched start to the season, Leicester’s form has picked up lately. Their underlying numbers at the King Power Stadium have remained poor though and scoring four times from one expected goal – as they did against Wolves last weekend – is unlikely to be repeatable either.
In relative terms of who they’ve faced at home (mostly sides in the bottom half of the Premier League table), Brendan Rodgers’ side have delivered the worst expected goal difference in the division. Welcoming Manchester City is very unlikely to shift the needle in their favour.
The defending champions have had fewer clean sheets than we might have expected but have won the last three league meetings at Leicester to nil. This match should make it four.
Crystal Palace vs. Southampton
- Date: Saturday, October 29
- Time: 10:00 a.m. ET
- Venue: Selhurst Park
- Location: London, England
Best Bet: Draw (+275)
Crystal Palace and Southampton were both in the Premier League top four for matches drawn last season. With four games to go they were only a point apart too, though the Eagles finished stronger to widen that gap.
Their meetings in 2021/22 were also close. This fixture ended 2-2, while Palace won the return on the south coast 2-1 thanks to a 92nd minute goal from Wilfried Zaha.
In short, there was little to separate them and the xG stats for 2022/23 suggest there won’t be once again. There are quite a few games which look potentially close this weekend and this leads the way as the most likely draw.
Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Chelsea
- Date: Saturday, October 29
- Time: 10:00 a.m. ET
- Venue: Amex Stadium
- Location: Falmer, England
Best Bet: Double chance – Brighton or Draw (-170)
One thing you can admire Brighton for is their consistency. No matter who the manager is, they never score as many goals as their statistics imply they should. Where they have taken eight points at home this season, the expected goal numbers suggest they’ve deserved 13 instead.
As such, the Seagulls look to be an excellent value selection to win this match (at +200) against a Chelsea side whose away performances have been very patchy.
However, four of the last five meetings ended all-square so the double chance option of Brighton winning or a draw is far safer.
Newcastle United vs. Aston Villa
- Date: Saturday, October 29
- Time: 10:00 a.m. ET
- Venue: St. James' Park
- Location: Newcastle, England
Best Bet: Newcastle to win and both teams to score (+275)
Steven Gerrard was undermined by finishing. His Aston Villa side had one of the biggest gaps between expected and actual points prior to his sacking, then promptly scored three times in the opening 14 minutes of their eventual 4-0 win over Brentford.
It’s still asking a lot for them to win against Newcastle, the side with the best goals against record in the Premier League, though. However, with their attack reinvigorated they can score in a defeat against the division’s most in-form club.
Fulham vs. Everton
- Date: Saturday, October 29
- Time: 12:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Craven Cottage
- Location: London, England
Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals (-130)
If you want to be entertained, watch Fulham. Marco Silva’s side lead the Premier League for matches in which both teams scored, and also for those featuring at least three goals.
Everton are near the bottom for the latter but added to their total with a 3-0 win over Crystal Palace last weekend, one of their most impressive displays under Frank Lampard.
This should be a very watchable match – it ended 2-3 the last time Fulham were in the Premier League – as there should be over 2.5 goals.
Arsenal vs. Nottingham Forest
- Date: Sunday, October 30
- Time: 10:00 a.m. ET
- Venue: Emirates Stadium
- Location: London, England
Best Bet: Arsenal -2 (+150)
After a difficult start to the campaign, Nottingham Forest will have taken plenty of confidence from their 1-0 win over Liverpool last weekend.
Yet even though they kept a clean sheet, Forest allowed four clear-cut chances and 2.6 expected goals. As poor as Jurgen Klopp’s side were, they had the opportunities to take something from the game.
Arsenal are unlikely to be so charitable, especially at home. With their Europa League progress already secure they can rest players at PSV Eindhoven on Thursday, and they can beat Forest by at least three goals to overcome the handicap at the weekend.
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