Last Updated Dec 09, 2022, 2:00 PM

Netherlands vs. Argentina Quarterfinals Picks, Predictions, Odds

The 2022 World Cup quarterfinals will begin Friday and the late game will feature Netherlands versus Argentina. The Dutch haven't lost a game in the World Cup and the defense has only surrendered two goals in those matches. Something will have to give here as the Albicelestes have scored two goals in each of their last three games.

Netherlands vs. Argentina Picks & Score Predictions

After the same amount of time spent on the pitch in Qatar, Argentina (7.6xG) has nearly doubled the Netherlands' (4.0xG) expected goals total so far. The scores on the doors only tell us a fraction of the story throughout 90 minutes, making these underlying metrics one to consider when approaching from a betting perspective.

Argentina shouldn't run away with proceedings, we've seen as much in Qatar, but at -163 to qualify with an under-goals angle - we may be onto a winner. With that, we get a 0-0 on our side at +650 in the event of a cagey 90 minutes, as well as 1-0 at +600 and 2-1 at +1000. If I were to hang my hat on a score prediction, the 2-1 at +1000 would be my go-to.

Score Predictions:
Argentina 2 Netherlands 1 (+1000)
Argentina 1 Netherlands 0 (+600)
Argentina 0 Netherlands 0 (+600)

Lionel Messi has a +350 to score the first goal of Friday's match on bet365.

Netherlands vs Argentina Best Bets

Although the Dutch blew away the USA, this is a different beast. Not only is it a step up collectively, but individually, Argentina possesses a plethora of talent capable of winning their one-on-one battles at a canter on their day. 

To Qualify presents as a handy market at -163 if extra time brilliance or lady luck in the shootouts is necessary. Of course, that may not scream value to most, which is why it only makes half of an intriguing foray into the quarterfinal. Coupled with under 3.5 goals (-500) in the hope that a tentative, knockout-type sentiment takes over the match, it brings us to a very backable -105 price. As each dressing room ramps up a notch in quality, we will likely see fewer games similar to Portugal's 6-1 victory over the Swiss or Brazil's 4-1 dismantling of South Korea.

Game Best Bets:

Netherlands vs Argentina Odds 

Argentina +120
Netherlands +260
Draw +210
Over 2.5 Goals: +150
Under 2.5: -188

To qualify/advance:
Argentina -163
Netherlands +130

The South Americans waltz into the match-up as +120 favourites. The bookmakers don't entirely fancy Louis van Gaal's Dutch side at +260, but it's not hard to see why. Argentina romped through South American qualifying, a stretch up there with the most competitive of all the competing continents, and boast stars to make the most prestigious nations envious. 

At -175 for under 2.5 goals, a lack of strikes is widely expected. However, both teams have a goal in their arsenal. That -175 price could, with an early strike, be something to swerve entirely if the game opens up.

Netherlands vs. Argentina Special Odds

Both Teams to Score: Yes (+100) No (-134)

Game Decided in Extra Time: Yes (+550) No (-900)

Corners: Over 8 (-110) Under 8 (+137)

Cards: Over 3.5 (-120) Under 3.5 (+120)
Both Teams to Receive a Card: Yes (-300) No (+225)

Netherlands vs. Argentina Betting Stats

World Cup Record
Netherlands (3-1-0)
Argentina (3-0-1)

World Cup Form
Netherlands 1 Senegal 0 (Favorite -150)
Netherlands 1 Ecuador 1 (Draw +240)
Netherlands 2 Qatar 0 (Favorite -500)
Netherlands 3 USA 1 (Favorite -118)

Saudi Arabia 2 Argentina 1 (Underdog +2200)
Argentina 2 Mexico 0 (Favorite -188)
Argentina 2 Poland 0 (Favorite -223)
Argentina 2 Australia 1 (Favorite -500)

The Netherlands team has +130 odds against Argentina to qualify in Friday's match.

Netherlands Betting Outlook and Players to Watch

If the Netherlands are to find joy against their South American counterparts, it's down the right hand side. A marauding Denzel Dumfries of Inter Milan fame will link up with Cody Gakpo and whoever is chosen to play behind the strikers. If Louis van Gaal can get a tune out of Dumfries for another 90 minutes, Marcos Acuña could be in for a long afternoon at left-back.

If Memphis Depay and a red-hot Cody Gakpo take your fancy, then Both Teams to Score at +100 appears as a sizable price.

Both teams to score: Yes (+100)

Argentina Betting Outlook and Players to Watch

The Lionel Messi factor is perhaps something difficult to quantify in terms of the bookmaker's prices, though for me, in a match as tight as this one, he's worth his weight in gold to punters. That creative spark to unlock a defence or the artistic lethality and guile to work a high-quality opening; the diminutive Argentinian has it all. 

Backed up by Lisandro Martinez and Angel di Maria who has done it all in domestic football, and you've got a selection of talent to give defenders sleepless nights. Nevertheless, the jewel in the crown, Lionel Messi, may well have his say once again. If you like the sound of that, something that has happened countless times, Messi to score first and Argentina to win comes in at +350.

Lionel Messi - First Goal Scorer: +350

Netherlands v. Argentina Betting Resources

Date: Friday, Dec. 9, 2022
Matchup: Quarterfinals
Stadium: Lusail Stadium
Location: Lusail, Qatar
TV-Time: 2:00p.m. ET, FOX Sports

Be sure to follow Sam Ingram on Twitter at @SamIngram_

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