Wolves vs Brentford Predictions, Odds and Betting Picks

Dylan Wilkerson Sports Betting Expert

13 minute read

Wolves' season witnessed a turnaround following the appointment of manager Vitor Pereira in December 2024. At that time, the club was second from bottom with just nine points.

Since the Portuguese manager's arrival, the hosts have matched Brentford's points tally (32), securing their Premier League safety with ease. While Wolves could still finish as low as 17th, depending on other results, their campaign has been largely positive despite falling short of last season’s 46-point total.

Brentford, meanwhile, cultivated dreams of European competition for the first time in their history. However, Crystal Palace's FA Cup triumph and Brighton's victory over Liverpool on Monday dashed those hopes.

Nevertheless, Thomas Frank's side has been the second most improved in the league compared to 2023/2024, accumulating 16 points more. With 65 goals scored, they remain one of the most entertaining teams to watch, boasting an attacking line-up that many top European clubs would envy.

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Analysis of the Match

Vitor Pereira made six changes on Tuesday night versus Crystal Palace from the eleven that started against Brighton. In what will be a final farewell to Molineux this season, we should see a strong Wolves line-up and performance on Sunday in front of home support. Matheus Cunha will likely feature ahead of a reported summer switch to Manchester United.

Couple the above with Brentford needing three points and results to go their way elsewhere for a slim shot at European football in 8th position, and we've got a game on our hands on the final day. This might turn out to be one of the most exciting of the ten games that see out the Premier League season.

Ethan Pinnock and Nathan Collins, Brentford's central defenders, both scored via headers in the most recent head-to-head in October. Wolves have conceded the joint-most goals from set-pieces (19) in the division, level with Southampton. The Bees, on the other hand, rank third for Expected Goals from set-pieces with 16.52xG. If Brentford are to overpower Sunday's hosts, it could be from a well-worked free-kick or corner routine.

Since the former Porto head coach arrived at Wolves, the Old Gold have returned 32 points. Thomas Frank's Brentford have posted a mirroring 32 points in the same timeframe, suggesting this should be an even contest. If the Premier League began from the day of Pereira's appointment, Wolves would be 11th in the division, 21 points away from the relegation zone after 21 fixtures. Only six teams have won more games than Wolves (10) in this period.

It's a remarkable turnaround for a manager taking charge halfway through the season. A 2.71 match goals per90 average under Pereira is a steep decline from the 4.00 average total spanning the 16 games to begin the season. If the managerial change had arrived two months earlier, we likely wouldn't have been blessed with the 5-3 between these two sides on match day seven.

Wolves Analysis and Form

Since Vitor Pereira took charge of Wolves (December 2024), they've matched Brentford's points tally in the league (32). Pereira's Wolves have overperformed their expected points by 5.97xPTS, suggesting they've been slightly fortunate. However, after a start to the season that was so unkind from a scheduling point of view, Sunday's hosts were due some fortune.

The three defeats to see out the season will have left a sour taste for Pereira and Co after such a brilliant spell. Yet, Manchester City, Brighton, and a party atmosphere at Selhurst Park straight after the FA Cup trophy lift is a tricky run of games.

From the beginning of March, no other Premier League player has scored more goals than Wolves' Jørgen Strand Larsen (7). During his debut season in England's top flight, the Norwegian striker has matched his best-ever league scoring record: 14 goals for Groningen in 2021/22. This follows a 13-goal haul for Celta Vigo in La Liga last campaign.

Larsen heads into the final day after scoring from his solitary shot against Crystal Palace (4-2) last time out, assisting the other. With a forward in such form, up against a Brentford front three in a similar vein, perhaps we'll see a flurry of goals at Molineux to see out the season.

Brentford Analysis and Form

Albeit a slim chance, Brentford's hope of reaching eighth position and being rewarded with European football hasn't wholly fizzled out. Whilst those European embers are still burning, Thomas Frank will be hell-bent on capping off an impressive season with all three points.

Wolves away from home isn't the most straightforward assignment in the Premier League under new manager Vitor Pereira. However, they've lost their most recent three matches after winning six in a row. That will give Brentford a boost of confidence.

Confidence is one thing that is running high amongst The Bees' forward line. Brentford are, alongside Barcelona and Bayern Munich, one of only three teams in Europe's top five leagues to boast three players in double figures for league goals (Bryan Mbeumo 19, Yoane Wissa 19, and Kevin Schade 11).

Despite taking all three points in the October head-to-head 5-3), Thomas Frank's side did concede three goals on home soil. If Brentford takes the lead, something they've done in four consecutive matches versus Wolves, they must ensure they hold onto it. 

The Bees have gone ahead on ten different occasions away from home this season. They've dropped 12 points from winning positions on the road - the joint-worst record in such a metric alongside Southampton and Ipswich.

Head to Head Analysis

The previous three Premier League meetings at Molineux have ended with the same scoreline (2-0). The Bees won two of these matches and will be eyeing a similar outcome on Sunday with European qualification potentially on the line. Since the pair first played each other in the Premier League in 2019, Wolves have kept only one clean sheet in seven outings.

If Sunday's head-to-head is anything like the reverse meeting in October, there's much to look forward to. Within four minutes at the GTECH Stadium, Matheus Cunha had equalised following Nathan Collins' opener after two minutes. That was the fourth consecutive fixture against Wolves, in which the Bees scored the first goal.

The first half of football continues along a similar theme, with Brentford scoring and Wolves replying. At 3-2, in first half injury time, Ethan Pinnock broke the theme by muscling his way onto the scoresheet and edging Brentford in front by two goals.

The second half wasn't as thrilling, but we saw another two goals. Fabio Carvalho and Rayan Ait Nouri added to the 5-3 eventual scoreline in the dying embers of the 90 minutes. With the 38th and final Premier League matchday accustomed to seeing the odd high-scoring spectacle, might we be in for a treat in Wolverhampton?

Team News and Predicted Lineups

Wolves predicted starting lineup:
Sa; Semedo, Agbadou, Toti, Doherty; Semedo, Gomes, Andre; Cunha, Munetsi, Larsen

Brentford predicted starting lineup:
Flekken; Kayode, Van den Berg, Collins, Lewis-Potter; Norgaard, Yarmolyuk, Damsgaard; Mbeumo, Schade, Wissa

Michael Kayode will start at right-back for Brentford if deemed ready, although his fitness remains in doubt on the final day. It’s a similar story for Wolves’ goalscoring Norwegian upfront - Jorgen Strand Larsen has been in imperious form for his club. However, he might have to take a backseat if Vitor Pereira would rather not risk him ahead of the summer.

Mbuemo, Wissa and Schade are all fit and firing for Thomas Frank’s Brentford side. That’s key if the Bees are to clinch a much-needed three points to keep the pressure on Brighton. The Seagulls travel to Spurs for the final matchday, a tussle that will decide which team clinches eighth.

Pereira made six changes on Tuesday evening versus Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park. That decision should see his big guns come back in for Molineux’s final farewell this season. 

Matheus Cunha should feature in his final appearance for the club. The Brazilian is reportedly making a summer switch to Manchester United. After two lengthy suspensions and airing his plans at any given opportunity, it feels like the right time for player and club to part ways.

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Dylan Wilkerson

Dylan Wilkerson has over 2 years of experience reporting and analyzing the sports betting industry for various sites. His portfolio includes work for SportsHandle and Action Network, in addition to VegasInsider. His favorite sports are the NFL, College Football, The PGA Tour, the LIV Tour, and Cricket. Dylan has a broad and deep understanding of various sports-related topics. More from Dylan Wilkerson