PSG vs Atletico Madrid Predictions, Odds and Betting Tips

Dylan Wilkerson Sports Betting Expert

13 minute read

The reigning Champions League winners are currently viewed as the second favorites to win the tournament, following only Real Madrid according to bookmakers.

Paris Saint-Germain has experienced a remarkable resurgence after the departure of star player Kylian Mbappé and a challenging start to their European campaign.

At the season's outset, Atletico Madrid posed a significant challenge for PSG during the initial stages. However, following a commanding 4-2 victory over Manchester City in January, Luis Enrique's team has been on an impressive winning streak.

Conversely, Atletico Madrid faced a disappointing exit from the Champions League, losing to Real Madrid in a penalty shootout. Their hopes for La Liga success also faded by March due to inconsistent performances.

In the PSG vs. Atletico Madrid odds, the French side is favored at 1.93/-107.5, indicating a 52% likelihood of victory, which may be surprising to some. Nevertheless, the 14 years under Diego Pablo Simeone's leadership remind us that Atletico’s tenacious and defensively strong squad should never be underestimated.

Updated on 6/14/25

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Analysis of the Match

This matchup promises to be one of the most compelling of the group stage. Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) aims for victory in this competition, and the outcome of this first game could significantly influence who secures the top position in Group B.

PSG has received notable acclaim for their performances this season. Their aggressive pressing style ensures that opponents face constant pressure. Key players like Vitinha, Fabian Ruiz, and João Neves possess the stamina and passing capabilities to excel in midfield battles. Under Luis Enrique, the attack has been dynamic, frequently finding the net during critical Champions League moments.

Known for their possession-based play, Enrique’s teams typically dominate in this aspect, and this match is expected to follow suit. PSG recorded an average of 61% possession in the Champions League this season, ranking them fourth in the tournament. In a previous league encounter against Atletico Madrid, PSG achieved 71% possession and generated an expected goals (xG) figure of 2.12, significantly higher than their opponents’ 0.67. Although Atleti won that match 2-1, PSG's finishing has improved since then.

On the other hand, Diego Simeone is likely to adopt a counter-attacking strategy. The experienced manager understands that European champions can exploit any defensive lapses if given too much room to maneuver, making it essential to maintain a solid and compact defensive shape.

Atletico Madrid will hope for a repeat of their last encounter, but PSG has shown considerable improvement since November. To secure a victory in this match, Atletico will need to withstand significant pressure from PSG.

PSG Analysis and Form

PSG were crowned champions of Europe after their emphatic 5-0 win over Inter. Les Parisiens have been obsessed with winning the Champions League trophy since being taken over by Qatari Sports Investments in 2011. The club has spent extravagantly since then, but a youthful team got them over the line.

Since Luis Enrique became manager, the likes of Kylian Mbappe, Lionel Messi, and Neymar have all departed the French club. The new look team has creativity in abundance. 

Ousmane Dembele, Desire Doue, and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia have formed a deadly front three in recent months. The trio have combined for 27 goal contributions in the Champions League. Bradley Barcola has also made a healthy contribution, with three goals and four assists in Europe’s elite club competition.

Previous PSG teams have been excellent going forward, but a willingness to work hard without the ball has been the difference in this campaign. Enrique’s side made an average of 19.75 tackles per game in the Champions League, the sixth most in the competition despite the team averaging 61% possession. 

PSG have lost four of their last 20 matches, but three of those defeats have come in Ligue 1, and the title was wrapped up very early. Enrique’s men strutted their best stuff in the knockout stages of the Champions League. They will face elite opposition if they are to go all the way in the Club World Cup. Les Parisiens’ performances in Europe suggest they will be a force to be reckoned with this summer. 

Atletico Madrid Analysis and Form

Atletico Madrid’s season fizzled out after showing much promise. Diego Simeone overhauled his attack in the summer by bringing in Julian Alvarez and Alexander Sorloth to support Antoine Griezmann. Atleti certainly improved, but they were unable to clinch silverware.

They were beaten in the round of 16 in the Champions League by Real Madrid. Julian Alvarez’s penalty was controversially ruled in the penalty shootout, which eventually resulted in Atleti’s elimination. 

Los Colchoneros were also unable to keep pace in La Liga. They were top of the league after matchday 18, but wound up finishing 12 points behind the eventual winners, Barcelona, after picking up 27 points from their last 15 games.  

Despite their struggles at the tail end of the season, Diego Simeone’s men showed they can compete with Europe’s best. They faced Barcelona on four occasions in the previous campaign, winning twice and losing just once. Atletico Madrid also managed one win and two draws in their four matches against Real Madrid, who are the favorites for the Club World Cup. 

Atleti are certainly a threat in this tournament, but they will have to navigate their way through a tricky group. 

Head to Head Analysis

The most recent and most important meeting between PSG and Atletico Madrid came in the final round of the 2024 Champions League group stage. This dramatic encounter saw Los Colchoneros snatch a 2-1 victory with a stoppage-time goal from Angel Correa.

Despite PSG dominating the game statistically, including a 2.09 xG from 22 total shots (nine on target), they were undone by Atletico’s ruthless efficiency. In just four shots total, three on target, and a 0.67 xG, the Atleti scored twice.

At the time, PSG were the heavy favorites to win with odds of around 1.50 for their win. This implied around a 66.7% chance of winning, compared to Atleti’s odds of 7.00, which is about a 14.3% chance of a win. Interestingly, the odds for BTTS - Yes were 1.70, which implies a roughly 59% chance of happening.

This defeat forced PSG into the playoff round, though they ultimately recovered and went on to win the tournament. Nonetheless, this was a tough loss, one they will likely not forget as they prepare for this clash.

Before that, the two last met in 2018, when PSG edged a 3-2 win in the International Champions Cup, which is basically a friendly match. 

Team News and Predicted Lineups

PSG starting lineup:
Donnarumma; Hakimi, Marquinhos, Pacho, Mendes; Neves, Vitinha, Ruiz; Doue, Dembele, Kvaratskhelia.

Atletico Madrid possible starting lineup:
Oblak; Molina, Le Normand, Gimenez, Gala;  Simeone, de Paul, Koke, Lino;  Griezmann, Alvarez.

Luis Enrique’s side remains in perfect shape after winning the Champions League, spearheaded by an outstanding front. Ousman Dembele exploded with 35 goals and 14 assists across all competitions this season, averaging 1.40 G + A per 90 minutes, ranking in the best 1% in goals, expected goals, and G+A per 90.

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia has impressed on the wing, averaging 0.32 npxG per 90 and contributing 0.38 xA per 90, placing him in the upper 90th percentile of Ligue 1 performers. 

PSG led Europe with an impressive 2.53 xG per 90 minutes and 18.87 shots per match in the Champions League. These stats alone showcase the quality of their forward play. 

On the other hand, Atletico remain defensively strong with 0.79 goals conceded per game. Their play heavily relies on counterattacking, where Sorloth dominates. The Norwegian scored 20 La Liga goals off 19.23 xG.

Combining with Julian Alvarez, who also smashed this season with 17 goals, should create an offense strong enough to reply to PSG’s high press. In theory, the playstyle used by the Colchoneros has the potential to make an upset or at least get on the scoreboard.
The Rojiblancos also expanded their roster in the summer transfer window, bringing in Juan Musso from Atalanta and Clement Lenglet from Barcelona, both on loan.

BEST BET: PSG to Win (-118)

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Dylan Wilkerson

Dylan Wilkerson has over 2 years of experience reporting and analyzing the sports betting industry for various sites. His portfolio includes work for SportsHandle and Action Network, in addition to VegasInsider. His favorite sports are the NFL, College Football, The PGA Tour, the LIV Tour, and Cricket. Dylan has a broad and deep understanding of various sports-related topics. More from Dylan Wilkerson