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2021 OSCARS ODDS, PICKS & PREDICTIONS

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
10 minute read

The 2021 Oscars are set to take place on Sunday, April 25 from the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles, California. The betting market for this particular award show is still somewhat new, with only a few states regulating wagers on the Academy Awards.

There are over 20 categories eligible for wagering, but many of the favorites have expensive value which makes the event somewhat difficult to bet on. Have no worries, as we are here to bring you the 2021 Oscars best bets, predictions, odds and various other betting resources for this year's event.

BETTING RESOURCES
2021 OSCARS

2021 OSCARS
TOP PICKS AND PREDICTIONS

Below is a list of the contenders to back, favorites to fade and long shots to consider for the 2021 Oscars.

CONTENDERS TO BACK
THE OSCARS

NOMADLAND

Nomadland is nominated for six different categories, including this year's best film. Of the six categories Nomadland is nominated for, the film is the favorite to win five of those categories. Best Picture (-670) and Best Director (-2500) are the two categories you should wager around if you fancy Nomandland.

The odds are very expensive however, as is most of the Oscars' favorites. If the Best Picture and Best Director categories are too expensive for you (as they should be), then Nomadland to win Best Adapted Screenplay (-400) sees cheaper value for a category it should win. Nomadland's value lies in Best Film Editing (+500).

SOUL

Pixar typically produces solid animation pictures, as Soul is no different. Soul would more than likely have a hat trick if not for Sound of Metal perfecting Best Sound in its picture, as the animated Disney film is a heavy favorite for Best Animated Film (-5000) and Best Original Score (-1000). Soul checks both boxes as a favorite to back for those two categories.

FOXBet is offering a special parlay that includes Soul winning both Best Animated Film and Best Original Score for -800. Consider that the best bet surrounding the animated Pixar film.

ANOTHER ROUND

Another Round could've been nominated for another few categories in my opinion, as it was my second-highest rated movie of the 38 I viewed. It could've easily been nominated (and won) for Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Best Film Editing and Best Original Screenplay.

Thomas Vinterberg, the director, is nominated for Best Director but will more than likely lose that category. At -500 to win Best International Film, Another Round is a comfortable favorite to consider this year. Mads Mikkelson, typically known for playing super natural villains, performs what is (in my opinion) his greatest role about four teachers who drink to improve their lives.

OTHERS

Other favorites to seriously consider include Youn Yuh-jung for Best Supporting Actress (-500), Daniel Kaluuya for Best Supporting Actor (-2000), Chadwick Boseman for Best Actor (-2500), Sound of Metal for Best Sound (-2000) and Tenet for Best Visual Effects (-560). All have a very expensive price tag, but it would be a huge shock to see any lose their respected nominated category.

FOXBet is offering a specials wager that bettors can hedge. The parlay includes Nomadland to win Best Picture, Chadwick Boseman to win Best Actor, Chloe Zhao to win Best Director and Carey Mulligan to win Best Actress at +250. Mulligan is the only one of the options with a chance to lose, so consider taking the parlay and hedging with Viola Davis (+150) or Andra Day (+500) for Best Actress.

FAVORITES TO FADE
THE OSCARS

BEST FILM EDITING

Sound of Metal is the current favorite at -134, which are alarmingly low odds. My rankings actually had Sound of Metal as the lowest in the film editing nominations, despite it being my third-favorite movie overall. Although -134 is considered a sizable favorite in most sports betting markets, it's actually considered low for Oscars market betting. This indicates the oddsmakers lack of conviction in Sound of Metal winning this category.

Although the short-favorite's value is enticing in Oscars betting, especially after seeing such expensive odds elsewhere, it should be noted that these categories typically see the most upsets. Promising Young Woman had the best film editing (in my opinion) until viewing Nomadland, both seeing odds at +500 or larger.

The Father at +2000 is also a better risk at taking instead of siding with the favorite Sound of Metal. The story of The Father revolves around identity confusion and dementia, tricky subjects for any film editor to achieve at a high standard. Characters and settings become jumbled, so a clear film edit is necessary for the audience to follow the story easily.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom is the current favorite at -150, but much like Sound of Metal, I had it ranked as the lowest in the costume design nominations. Although the costume design was impressive, it was mainly just for a few characters in a few scenes - written more of as a playwright.

All other nominations present terrific odds for the costumes displayed in their respected films, particularly Mulan (+3300). Emma is a strong contender outside of Ma Rainey's Black Bottom as well.

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom is nominated for five categories, including Chadwick Boseman for Best Actor (-2500). (AP)

LONG SHOT PICKS
THE OSCARS

HUSAVIK (+400) BEST ORIGINAL SONG

The beautiful song about a tiny Icelandic town, in my opinion, is the best song in cinema this year. The reason? The song is a necessary device to move the story's plot along, finally revealing itself during the climatic moment in the third act - and it worked beautifully. All other nominated songs, although wonderful in message, weren't necessary to the story achieving its final act.

PINOCCHIO (+450) BEST MAKEUP & HAIR STYLE

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom was the clear cut winner for me in this category, that was until I viewed the Italian rendition of Pinocchio which was nominated twice this year. It's difficult to imagine how Pinocchio would be in this category, but the fact the movie was a 'live action' version gave the makeup artists an opportunity to go beyond the limits of their creativity.

Live action versions of various animals within the story saw some of the best makeup work in a long time. This includes a cat, a fox, a cricket, a fairy and most notably a snail. Even the human characters that played citizens in the streets of Italy saw impeccable makeup work done, which includes Geppetto.

COLLECTIVE (+800) BEST DOCUMENTARY

Best Documentary is one of the strongest categories at this year's Academy Award event, but the Romanian story of health care fraud has insanely kind odds to test. It will be difficult to top My Octopus Teacher, a story about a man who visits the same octopus for a year, but Collective is more than capable of pulling off the upset.

Of all the nominations (which includes outside this category), it seems Collective was probably one of the most difficult to achieve. The story is also groundbreaking on multiple levels, giving perceptions from the victim's, media's and government official's point of view.

It will be difficult to topple the heartwarming and emotional story of My Octopus Teacher, but hard work and story telling of Collective is tough to match in any category let alone Best Documentary. Keep in mind it's the only documentary nominated for two categories as well (nominated for Best International Film).

ANDRA DAY (+600) BEST ACTRESS

Andra Day has considerable odds to win the Best Actress award at +600, as I ranked her No. 1 of all the nominations. Her short odds indicate oddsmakers are also intrigued with Day's performance in the United States vs. Billie Holiday, but afraid to pull the trigger as she is competing with straight heavyweights of the industry.

Make no mistake, Day going up against the likes of Carey Mulligan and Viola Davis at the Academy Awards is equivalent to facing Tom Brady or Peyton Manning in the Super Bowl. Day brought the best performance of all the nominations, in my opinion, and the short odds bring some merit to that thought.

Day had more monologues than either of the front runners in Mulligan or Davis, while also showcasing the most range as her character goes through the ups and downs of Holiday's career. Vanessa Kirby also presents terrific odds to take a chance on with an emotionally beautiful performance. This is an extremely strong category this year.

Mank is nominated for 10 different categories, which is more than any other film entering the 2021 Oscars. (AP)

PICKS BY CATEGORIES
THE OSCARS

Below are rankings for each category with odds to win. Our Oscars expert Thom Cunningham (who has a degree in Theater Arts) viewed 38 films at 4,228 minutes (or 71.5 hours), and ranked each nomination for the respective categories.

BEST PICTURE

  • Nomadland (-670)
  • Sound of Metal (+5000)
  • The Trial of the Chicago 7 (+650)
  • Mank (+2800)
  • Promising Young Woman (+1400)
  • Minari (+1400)
  • The Father (+8000)
  • Judas & the Black Messiah (+3000)

PICK: NOMADLAND

BEST DIRECTOR

  • Chloe Zhao - Nomadland (-2500)
  • Lee Isaac Chung - Minari (+1400)
  • Thomas Vinterberg - Another Round (+2000)
  • David Fincher - Mank (+1000)
  • Emerald Fenell - Promising Young Woman (+1700)

PICK: CHLOE ZHAO

BEST ACTOR

  • Chadwick Boseman - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (-2500)
  • Riz Ahmed - Sound of Metal (+1400)
  • Anthony Hopkins - The Father (+800)
  • Gary Oldman - Mank (+2000)
  • Steven Yeun - Minari (+2500)

PICK: CHADWICK BOSEMAN

BEST ACTRESS

  • Andra Day - U.S. vs. Billie Holiday (+600)
  • Carey Mulligan - Promising Young Woman (+125)
  • Vanessa Kirby - Pieces of a Woman (+1400)
  • Viola Davis - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (+180)
  • Frances McDormand - Nomadland (+350)

PICK: ANDRA DAY

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

  • Daniel Kaluuya - Judas & the Black Messiah (-2500)
  • LaKeith Stanfield - Judas & the Black Messiah (+2500)
  • Sacha Baron Cohen - The Trial of the Chicago 7 (+900)
  • Paul Raci - Sound of Metal (+1200)
  • Leslie Odom, Jr. - One Night in Miami (+1400)

PICK: DANIEL KALUUYA

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

  • Youn Yuh-jung - Minari (-500)
  • Glenn Close - Hillybilly Elegy (+650)
  • Olivia Colman - The Father (+1000)
  • Maria Bakalova - Borat Subsequential Moviefilm (+300)
  • Amanda Seyfried - Mank (+1700)

PICK: YOUN YUH-JUNG

BEST ANIMATED PICTURE

  • Soul (-5000)
  • Wolfwalkers (+700)
  • Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (+3300)
  • Onward (+2000)
  • Over the Moon (+2500)

PICK: SOUL

BEST DOCUMENTARY

  • Collective (+800)
  • My Octopus Teacher (-335)
  • Time (+250)
  • The Mole Agent (+3300)
  • Crip Camp (+1700)

PICK: COLLECTIVE

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

  • Promising Young Woman (-400)
  • Minari (+1000)
  • The Trial of the Chicago 7 (+225)
  • Judas & the Black Messiah (+3300)
  • Sound of Metal (+3300)

PICK: PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

  • Nomadland (-400)
  • The Father (+350)
  • One Night in Miami (+1200)
  • Borat Subsequential Moviefilm (+800)
  • The White Tiger (+2500)

PICK: NOMADLAND

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

  • Husavik - Eurovision (+400)
  • Speak Now - One Night in Miami (-200)
  • Io Si - The Life Ahead (+225)
  • Fight For You - Judas & the Black Messiah (+1700)
  • Hear My Voice - The Trial of the Chicago 7 (+3300)

PICK: HUSAVIK

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

  • Soul (-1000)
  • Mank (+800)
  • Minari (+1400)
  • News of the World (+2000)
  • Da 5 Bloods (+2000)

PICK: SOUL

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

  • Nomadland (-400)
  • Mank (+350)
  • News of the World (+1200)
  • The Trial of the Chicago 7 (+1700)
  • Judas & the Black Messiah (+1400)

PICK: NOMADLAND

BEST SOUND

  • Sound of Metal (-2000)
  • Soul (+800)
  • Mank (+1000)
  • Greyhound (+2000)
  • News of the World (+2000)

PICK: SOUND OF METAL

BEST FILM EDITING

  • Nomadland (+500)
  • Promising Young Woman (+3300)
  • The Trial of the Chicago 7 (+125)
  • The Father (+2000)
  • Sound of Metal (-134)

PICK: NOMADLAND

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

  • Mank (-560)
  • Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (+600)
  • News of the World (+2000)
  • Tenet (+700)
  • The Father (+2000)

PICK: MANK

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

  • Mulan (+3300)
  • Emma (+175)
  • Mank (+500)
  • Pinocchio (+2500)
  • Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (-150)

PICK: MULAN

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR STYLE

  • Pinocchio (+450)
  • Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (-400)
  • Hillbilly Elegy (+900)
  • Emma (+2000)
  • Mank (+1400)

PICK: PINOCCHIO

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

  • Tenet (-560)
  • One & Only Ivan (+1700)
  • Love & Monsters (+2500)
  • The Midnight Sky (+250)
  • Mulan (+1400)

PICK: TENET

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