Canelo Alvarez vs. Caleb Plant Predictions, Picks, Odds

Kevin Rogers Sports Betting Expert

4 minute read

Nov. 6, 2021

by Adam Lykkesteen
UFC Expert
VegasInsider.com

One of boxing’s biggest stars, Canelo Alvarez, defends his titles against unbeaten 29-year old IBF champion, Caleb Plant this weekend in the MGM Grand of Las Vegas.

Álvarez is well on his way to becoming one of the greatest boxers of all time, as he has accumulated an impressive record of 56-1-2, with 38 wins coming by way of knockout. The only loss on Canelo’s record is to Floyd Mayweather, a fight that took place eight years ago. Since then, Álvarez has won 14 fights, only drawing once with ‘Triple G’ Genady Golovkin.

Let’s dive deeper into this matchup between two of boxing's hottest names right now, and try to identify some valuable spots for betting.

Canelo Alvarez vs. Caleb Plant Betting Predictions

As always, Álvarez is a huge betting favorite when he fights. Does Plant even stand a chance? The short answer is yes.

As with all combat sports, upsets are inevitable. The volatile and unpredictable nature of boxing means that one punch can change the entire outcome of a fight within seconds. Of course, that goes both ways, but at the highest level anyone can get knocked out on any given night.

Álvarez has an impeccable style. He mixes technique with power extremely well, and still manages to conserve energy in the later rounds. His reign of dominance has proven the level he is at.

That said, Plant is no walkover. Unbeaten at 21-0 (12 wins by KO) Plant’s movement and unorthodox style makes him a tricky opponent to read. The only suspected hole in Plant’s game is his endurance, as his longer fights have seen him less engaged in the later rounds. Other than that, he’s been dominating, just like his opponent. Both men are in their physical primes, with Álvarez perhaps being a bit more mature in his development as a boxer.

Canelo Alvarez has seen four of his last six fights end before the final bell. (AP)

Remember I mentioned Canelo’s one and only pro loss to Mayweather? While that fight might have taken place a long time ago, I see some shades of the Mayweather defensive philly-shell in Plant when he’s at his best.

He usually wants to draw out his opponents’ attack to counter with slick punches. It is the only style that Canelo has lost to as a boxer. In the pocket is where Canelo truly excels, his power is often unmatched and not often do we see opponents able to withstand that power for 12 rounds. Caleb needs to stay on the outside and might have to give up the center of the ring.

Canelo might be too smart to play that game with Plant, and the longer the fight goes the more it’ll play into the incumbent’s hands, but Plant has a legit shot at doing some handy work in the first half of the fight if you ask me.

All in all, there’s a reason Canelo is the pound-for-pound best boxer right now. And despite dropping a few rounds in this fight, eventually he makes enough reads on a fatiguing Plant to close the show, somewhere around rounds 9 or 10.

Prediction: Alvarez def. Plant

Canelo Alvarez vs. Caleb Plant Betting Odds

Canelo Alvarez vs. Caleb Plant Betting Markets

Odds Provided by bet365 - Subject to Change

• Canelo Alvarez -1200
• Caleb Plant +700
• Draw +2200
• Over 8.5 (-120)
• Under 85. (-120)

Canelo Alvarez vs. Caleb Plant Best Bet

Betting-wise, the chalk on Álvarez is no surprise -- the books have caught onto him long ago, meaning that if you’re picking him H2H, you’re paying a huge premium. At -1000, there’s no value on Canelo, so let’s have a look at the ‘dog.

I believe Plant has a good chance of doing some good work in the early half of the fight. Can he win a decision? Perhaps that’s a stretch, so let’s leave the specific method of victory and just take him on the ML at +600. I think that has good value.

The problem with backing Canelo is that you’ve missed the boat if you’re only starting now. Hypothetically, if you back him in his next 10 outings, you can win nine bets but drop one and you won’t even break even, you’ll most likely be down a few bucks, because the chalk is so heavy on him.

Instead, fading him at the appropriate time is the way to go. You just need to hit one ‘dog and you’re up big.

These unbeaten younger guys are only getting better, and every dog has his day. Canelo Álvarez is a man with two arms and two legs -- as long as Caleb remembers that he has a chance here.

Best Bet: Plant ML +700

Kevin Rogers

Kevin has been handicapping professionally since 2007 at VegasInsider before shifting to ScoresAndOdds. He focuses on MLB, NFL, college football, NBA, college basketball, and NHL and mainly uses trends, systems, and situations as his top handicapping angles. More from Kevin Rogers