Last Updated Sep 17, 2022, 9:17 PM

Canelo vs. GGG 3 Picks, Predictions, Odds

Gennadiy Golovkin is hoping the third time is the charm when he squares off against Canelo Alvarez for the third time in five years this weekend. Golovkin (42-1-1 with 37 knockouts) has defeated everyone else he has faced with the notable exception of Alvarez. GGG is arguably the most dominant middleweight boxer we have ever seen, but the one hole in his resume is that he has been unable to beat Canelo. Meanwhile, Alvarez (57-2-2 with 39 knockouts) is looking to bounce back after he was thoroughly dominated by Dmitry Bivol in May.

The Trilogy: Canelo Alvarez vs. Gennadiy Golovkin III will be held on Saturday, September 17, 2022, at T-Mobile Arena in Paradise, Nevada. Alvarez will be defending his super middleweight titles in this bout, and it will be broadcast on DAZN with ring walks expecting to take place at 11 p.m. ET.

What Happened in the first two fights between Canelo and GGG?

Most observers believe that GGG was hosed in each of his first two fights with Canelo Alvarez. While the first fight back in September 2017 ended in a split decision draw, the only reason it ended that way was because judge Adalaide Byrd scored the fight 118-110 in favor of Canelo. It was one of the most egregious scoring decisions we’ve ever seen in a major fight, as even the executive director of the Nevada Athletic Commission said that Byrd had a bad night and would be taking a break from major fights. GGG landed almost 50 more punches than Canelo and scored more punches in 10 of the 12 rounds, leading to most observers giving Golovkin the edge.

The second fight also went the distance, but this time Canelo was awarded a majority decision victory. Although only one of the 18 media outlets covering the rematch thought that Canelo won the fight, the judges awarded Alvarez a 115-113, 115-113, 114-114 victory. Once again, Golovkin landed more punches than Canelo and connected more times than his opponent did in 8 of the 12 rounds, but the judges gave Alvarez the win.

(Getty)

Canelo vs. GGG 3 Picks

There has been a lot of action on Canelo Alvarez in the lead-up to this fight. Alvarez was initially a -350 favorite to defeat Golovkin when this fight was announced in late May. Now, he is a -600 favorite to beat GGG this weekend.

This is likely to be one of Golovkin’s last major fights. GGG turned 40 in April, and he has not fought as much as he used to when he was younger. Golovkin preferred to fight three times a year when he was in his prime during the 2010s, but he has only entered the ring twice since October 2019. The two-time unified middleweight champion still has knockout power, as he dropped Kamil Szeremeta and Ryota Murata in his last two fights, but he got off to a slow start against Murata in April.

Alvarez has won titles in four different weight classes, and he will go down as one of the greatest modern-day boxers. The only two losses of his career have come against Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Dmitry Bivol, and he is incredibly seasoned for a 32-year-old fighter. Alvarez easily defeated Avni Yildirim, Billy Joe Saunders, and Caleb Plant last year, but he bit off more than he could chew when he moved up to face Dmitry Bivol for the light heavyweight title. All three judges scored the fight 115-113 in favor of Bivol, but it was more lopsided than that as Bivol landed 152 punches compared to just 84 for Alvarez, and Bivol landed a higher percentage of his punches.

It's easy to see why the line has moved in favor of Canelo ahead of this fight. The judges were very accommodating towards Alvarez in his last two fights with GGG and in his showdown with Bivol back in May, so Golovkin likely needs to stop Canelo if he is going to get the victory. With that in mind, there is a lot of value in Golovkin to win by KO, TKO, or DQ.

To Win Fight: Gennadiy Golovkin by KO/TKO/DQ (+850)
Total Rounds: Under 10.5 (+150)

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