Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:48 AM

Iowa State vs. Iowa Predictions, Odds

  • December 11, 2020
  • By Thom Cunningham

The Iowa State Cyclones travel to Iowa City to take on rivals the Iowa Hawkeyes in a Big Ten vs Big 12 inter-state game. The state foes are scheduled to tip at 9 p.m. (ET) on the Big Ten Network.


Iowa State-Iowa Betting Odds

Line Movements

  • Spread: Iowa -14
  • Money-Line: Iowa -1250 Iowa State +800
  • Total: 163

Odds Subject to Change

Iowa enters this inter-state rivalry game as the home favorite, which comes as no surprise. The Hawkeyes are led by Wooden Award favorite Luka Garza, who just took care of a solid North Carolina team at home.

Iowa is a perfect 4-0 SU this year, which leaks into other betting categories. The Hawkeyes are 4-0 ATS and 4-0 O/U, with one of the more potent offenses in the entire country. Evident in the UNC game, Iowa can shoot the three ball extremely well. This has helped the Hawkeyes in ranking fifth nationally for points scored per game and offensive rating.

Iowa State enters as the road underdog, coming off a loss to South Dakota State. Despite the lack of recognition, South Dakota State is a March Madness caliber club, so the loss isn't as bad as it may be advertised to be. However, the Iowa State defense will need to step up if it wishes to contain the high-powered offense of Iowa.

The Cyclones have a completely different betting resume than Iowa this year. They are 0-2 ATS along with 0-2 O/U.


Betting Analysis – Iowa State Cyclones

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 1-1
  • ATS: 0-2
  • SU - Home: 1-1
  • SU - Away: 0-0
  • O/U: 0-2

This team has a lot of work to do if it wishes to knock off Iowa on the road. The Hawkeyes have won 17 of their last 18 home games and present the clear and better roster. The Cyclones do have experience however, led by senior guard Jalen Coleman-Lands.

Coleman-Lands is the top scorer for Iowa State, along with being the club's veteran leader. However, he's not the only one as both Rasir Bolton and Solomon Young average 13 points per game.

The difference for Iowa State may be on the shoulders of Bolton, as the junior averages a near triple-double with seven boards and six assists per game. He will need to facilitate and be all over the court for offensive production, as keeping pace with Iowa will be a race that the Cyclones might not be able to finish.

Iowa State's Darlinstone Dunbar takes on defenders at the rim in the Cyclone's win over Arkansas-Pine Bluff. (AP Images)

The weakness for Iowa State is they have no height to guard Garza in the post. The tallest Cyclone who sees ample minutes is Young, who is just 6'8" and only averages 2.5 boards per game. Iowa State will have to keep up with Iowa, who will be able to score from anywhere on the court but in particular the paint.

Betting Analysis – Iowa Hawkeyes

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 4-0
  • ATS: 3-1
  • SU - Home: 4-0
  • SU - Away: 0-0
  • O/U: 4-0

This should be another win for Iowa, who is unbeatable (it seems) at home. Garza should have a field day in the post, as its hard to side with the Iowa State defense being able to stifle a top five offense.

The win over UNC was convincing in itself, but there's always the thought that a rivalry game creates chaos for chalk bettors. That may be true, but there is no evidence of it occurring when going through Iowa's resume. The Hawkeyes are perfect in covering the spread, along with perfect in going OVER the point total.

In terms of winning though, Iowa should be fine as the team cleans up nicely on the glass. Besides the stellar offense, the Hawkeyes rank 23rd nationally in total rebounds, 11th in blocks and 24th in free throw attempts. All those stats point towards paint production, so expect Iowa to dominate the paint.

Inside the Stats – Iowa State Cyclones

  • PS/G: 74 (159th)
  • PA/G: 67 (118th)
  • Off Rtg: 105 (130th)
  • Def Rtg: 95 (147th)

Inside the Stats – Iowa Hawkeyes

  • PS/G: 98 (5th)
  • PA/G: 70.2 (159th)
  • Off Rtg: 127.7 (5th)
  • Def Rtg: 91.5 (105th)

Key Players to Watch

  • IWST - Jalen Coleman-Lands (14.5 PPG)
  • IWST - Rasir Bolton (13 PPG, 7 RPG, 6 APG)
  • IOWA - Luka Garza (29.5 PPG, 10.8 RPG)
  • IOWA - Joe Wieskamp (13.8 PPG, 6.8 RPG)

Iowa State-Iowa Predictions

There's no stand out reason to side with Iowa State unless you buy into the rivalry game theory of evening the playing field. In this case though, Iowa is just too much of a powerhouse to go against and is coming off an impressive cover against UNC.

If confident in Iowa, feel free to take them covering the spread. The perfect 4-0 records for the ATS and O/U are due to snap at some point, but it's unlikely they both end at home against a school with issues scoring a high point total.

  • Score Prediction: Iowa 80 Iowa State 67
  • Best Bets: UNDER 163

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