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Colorado State vs. San Diego State Predictions, Odds

 

  • January 2, 2021
  • By Thom Cunningham
  • VegasInsider.com

The Colorado State Rams find themselves on the college basketball radar, entering a crucial Mountain West game against the San Diego State Aztecs. This huge game is set for 4:00 p.m. (ET) and will air on CBS.

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    Colorado State-San Diego State Betting Odds

    Line Movements

    • Spread: San Diego State -9
    • Money-Line: TBD
    • Total: 137.5

    Odds Subject to Change

    Despite an impressive run to begin the college basketball season, Colorado State finds themself as a +9-point underdog to the home Aztecs. San Diego State is tough to beat at home, despite dropping a home game to BYU earlier this season.

    The two schools are an impressive 7-3 combined ATS this season, which might favor Colorado State as a large underdog. The point total is set at 137.5, which seems likely to go UNDER based on the Rams doing so in three of their last four games. San Diego State is 3-3 O/U this season, but present a top-notch defense.

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    Betting Analysis – Colorado State Rams

    Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

    • SU: 5-1
    • ATS: 3-1
    • SU - Home: 4-0
    • SU - Away: 1-1
    • O/U: 1-3

    Welcome to March Madness Colorado State, for now, as there is a lot of basketball still to be played. The shiny record isn't much to ride home about, as Colorado State has only beaten Santa Clara and Fresno State since dropping an ugly loss to Saint Mary's.

    Santa Clara isn't awful, but the overall quality of opponents for Colorado State isn't too impressive. To be honest, its a bit surprising oddsmakers don't see the Aztecs winning by more than nine points. Colorado State lost by 20 to Saint Mary's, and now face a much better team on both offense and defense.

    One thing the Rams do well, which ironically the Aztecs do well too, is play defense. Although the resume isn't quite there for Colorado State, their defense has been impressive. The most points they have allowed was 77 to a Division-II school in game one, failing to allow 60 or more since.

    This is why Colorado State is starting to turn heads, because their defense is playing like one of the best. A good defense gives you a chance to win, but heading into a tough environment with an experienced opponent is a tall task to handle. The best thing about Colorado State is that it seems they are unknown to the oddsmakers.

    Colorado State's defense and lack of tough opponents actually makes both the spread and point total somewhat charitable.

    Betting Analysis – San Diego State Aztecs

    Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

    • SU: 6-1
    • ATS: 4-2
    • SU - Home: 5-1
    • SU - Away: 1-0
    • O/U: 3-3

    There is no excuse for San Diego State to lose at home to the Rams, even if the point total might not touch 100. The Aztecs have experience leading them in the form of Matt Mitchell and Jordan Schakel.

    Nathan Mensah has also come into form lately, but the overall talent and experience of this team may be too much at home.

    San Diego State has six players average over a steal per game, ranking 38th nationally in most steals per game. They've only let one team touch 70 against them (BYU scored 72) and have allowed less than 59 points in four games this season.

    Inside the Stats – Colorado State Rams

    • PS/G: 73.2 (168th)
    • PA/G: 58.5 (19th)
    • Off Rtg: 102.6 (162nd)
    • Def Rtg: 82 (15th)

    Inside the Stats – San Diego State Aztecs

    • PS/G: 73.4 (162nd)
    • PA/G: 58 (14th)
    • Off Rtg: 108.7 (81st)
    • Def Rtg: 85.8 (25th)

    Key Players to Watch

    • CSU - David Roddy (16.2 PPG, 9.5 RPG)
    • CSU - Isaiah Stevens (14.3 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 5.7 APG)
    • SDST - Matt Mitchell (15.4 PPG)
    • SDST - Jordan Schakel (13 PPG)

    Colorado State-San Diego State Predictions

    This should be a very low-scoring game. It would be surprising to see Colorado State touch 60 points, although the Rams might play good enough defense to cover a nine-point spread. The spread is large, but San Diego State has beaten much better teams by more (Arizona State by 12).

    A good bet seems to be the point total going UNDER based on team defenses involved on both sides. 137.5 feels more like a trap however, as taking the better home team seems to provide more conviction. San Diego State is the better team and should win by a double-digit point total, which might be the safer bet between the two, although its tough to argue either

    • Score Prediction: San Diego State 77 Colorado State 59
    • Best Bets: San Diego State
    • Best Bets: UNDER

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