Nevada vs. San Diego State Predictions, Odds

  • January 7, 2021
  • By Thom Cunningham

The Nevada Wolf Pack travel to California to take on the San Diego State Aztecs in a rivalry game. The Mountain West schools take the court at 10 p.m. (ET), as the game will air on CBS Sports Network.



Nevada-San Diego State Betting Odds

  • Spread: San Diego State -12.5
  • Money-Line: Nevada +650 San Diego State -1000
  • Total: 136.5

Odds Subject to Change

Nevada enters this game as the road underdog, given a +12.5-point spread against San Diego State. The Aztecs bounced back with a win, after losing to Colorado State at home in which the Aztecs led by as many as 25 points. Both teams tend to cover the spread very well, as they are a combined 12-6 ATS this season.

The point total is set at 136.5, something both schools tend to go OVER on - despite a solid defense from San Diego State. The Aztecs are 5-3 O/U this season, while Nevada is 6-4 on the O/U.


Betting Analysis – Nevada Wolf Pack

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 8-3
  • ATS: 7-3
  • SU - Home: 4-2
  • SU - Away: 4-1
  • O/U: 6-4

Nevada enters this crucial road game with a two-game winning streak, winning four of its last five games. However, Nevada has faced Air Force and New Mexico twice over the last four games, so the statistical data entering this game is a bit misleading. Nevada's toughest opponent so far has been San Francisco, so take all stats surrounding the Wolf Pack with a grain of salt.

Grant Sherfield and Desmond Cambridge average the most points for this team, each at 15 or more per game. They will have to be efficient in order to break this stingy San Diego State defense. This is a great test for those two, playing the conference's best defense on the road.

Zane Meeks and Warren Washington will need to hit timely shots as well, but more importantly they will need to rebound. The pair averages the most rebounds per game for Nevada, and will need all the possessions and second chance points to break this Aztecs' defense.

Nevada will need to play from inside-out, which begins with Meeks and Washington rebounding. The Wolf Pack average the 36th-most defensive rebounds per game, and the 51st-most free throw attempts. Using those two stats, getting boards and to the charity stripe will be the most important way to score points for the Wolf Pack.

Betting Analysis – San Diego State Aztecs

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 7-2
  • ATS: 5-3
  • SU - Home: 6-2
  • SU - Away: 1-0
  • O/U: 5-3

San Diego State is probably thankful to get away from back-to-back games against a young but very good defensive Colorado State team. As a result of facing a top tier defense, Matt Mitchell has seen his points per game average drop to below 15. It's hard to understand the issue for San Diego State.

They look like shades of last year's team, up on the Rams by 25 points before losing the game SU at home. San Diego State, a nationally praised defensive team, also allowed BYU to reign three's on their own home court. San Diego State, although a good team overall, is not the same 30-plus win team from a year ago.

They are capable of being beaten on any given night, as a home lock is no longer a... lock. Nathan Mensah needs to continue rebounding the ball well, as he will be a big factor against the Meeks-Washington pairing for Nevada. Terrell Gomez will also need to play well, as his offense comes and goes.

If San Diego State can continue forcing steals, specifically in the paint, they should be fine. The Aztecs do a great job of covering passing lanes and hitting three-point shots (35th-best percentage in the nation at 38%). It's just hard to consider San Diego State a Mountain West powerhouse this season, losing games to both offensive and defensive powerhouses in BYU and Colorado State, respectively.

Inside the Stats – Nevada Wolf Pack

  • PS/G: 72.3 (185th)
  • PA/G: 66.6 (102nd)
  • Off Rtg: 102.4 (162nd)
  • Def Rtg: 94.5 (118th)

Inside the Stats – San Diego State Aztecs

  • PS/G: 73.2 (164th)
  • PA/G: 60.1 (17th)
  • Off Rtg: 108.2 (85th)
  • Def Rtg: 88.8 (41st)

Key Players to Watch

  • NEV - Grant Sherfield (17.2 PPG, 5.4 APG)
  • NEV - Desmond Cambridge (15.4 PPG, 4.1 RPG)
  • SDST - Matt Mitchell (14.9 PPG)
  • SDST - Jordan Schakel (14.6 PPG)

Nevada-San Diego State Predictions

Despite the concerns for San Diego State, they should win this game. As stated earlier, Nevada has yet to be challenged this season with only two difficult games against San Francisco and Nebraska. Grand Canyon isn't terrible, but Nevada lost by double-digits on the road to them.

If this game was in Nevada, then maybe side with the Wolf Pack but Nevada has done nothing to warrant betting conviction in this particular game. Don't over think this and go with the better roster that's playing at home, as the Aztecs' defense should be trusted more than Nevada as a whole.

The odds are also pointing towards the point total going OVER, as the teams are a combined 11-7 on the O/U this season. Expecting one to touch 60 and another team to touch 70, this should go OVER. At the very least, you are playing the odds correctly which are also much more clear and cut than the ATS.

  • Score Prediction: San Diego State 83 Nevada 70
  • Best Bets: OVER

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