Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:47 AM

TCU vs. Kansas Predictions, Odds

  • January 28, 2021
  • By Thom Cunningham

The Kansas Jayhawks look to get back into the win column with a home game against the TCU Horned Frogs. Tip is set for 8 p.m. (ET) and will air on ESPN+ from the Allen Fieldhouse.



TCU-Kansas Betting Odds

Line Movements

  • Spread: Kansas -14
  • Money-Line: Kansas -1600 TCU +900
  • Total: 137.5

Odds Subject to Change

Kansas enters as the home favorite, given a very high -14-point spread. The Jayhawks are 6-8 on the ATS this season, while TCU has only covered five of its last 14 games.

The point total is set at 137.5, which the schools are essentially split on. TCU has an O/U of 7-7, while Kansas has gone OVER the point total in eight of its last 14 games.

Betting Analysis – TCU Horned Frogs

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 9-5
  • ATS: 5-9
  • SU - Home: 6-4
  • SU - Away: 3-1
  • O/U: 7-7

TCU is fighting for its March Madness life in this road game, currently on the outside looking in. The Horned Frogs are pretty reliant on three players, beginning with R.J. Nembhard. Nembhard averages 17.2 points per game and tied for a team-high 1.3 steals per game.

He and Mike Miles are the offensive catalysts for this TCU team. Kevin Samuel doesn't get the glamour the other two names get, but he is very efficient with 9.6 points and 9.3 rebounds per game. Samuel's efficiency doesn't help too much though, as the Horned Frogs rank below 200 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

TCU's biggest strength is blocking shots, averaging 3.9 per game which ranks 85th nationally. Again, that comes from Samuel who averages 2.2 per game. No other Horned Frog averages 0.5 per game.

Looking through numbers and watching this team play, it seems that TCU's biggest difference maker if they want to win is in fact Samuel. That doesn't excuse Nembhard or Miles from sloppy games, but if those two are scoring while Samuel cleans up the glass and prevents easy shots - then TCU has a chance to cover.

Betting Analysis – Kansas Jayhawks

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 10-5
  • ATS: 6-8
  • SU - Home: 6-1
  • SU - Away: 4-4
  • O/U: 8-6

Oy vey, where to begin with Bill Self's bunch. The sky isn't falling in Kansas, despite a current three-game losing streak. The Jayhawks have lost to Oklahoma State, Baylor and Oklahoma - all on the road.

Kansas now returns to the comforts of Allen Fieldhouse, where they're virtually unstoppable. They have allowed 65 points or fewer in three of its last four home games, with the exception being Texas who scored over 80.

It's easy to write this Kansas team off after a three-game stretch, but the truth is they're still very dangerous and talented. Ochai Agbaji, Jalen Wilson, David McCormack and Christian Braun all average a double-digit point total.

It's also easy to forget Marcus Garrett, the senior leader of this team and main ball handler (averages 3.7 assists per game). The Jayhawks are a loaded squad, despite losing games to top-notch opponents. The Jayhawks losses include the four teams mentioned, along with Gonzaga.

Feel free to jump off the Kansas boat now, but bear in mind the losses are all against quality teams. The Jayhawks still average the 52nd-most blocked shots in the nation (4.3), the 63rd-best three-point percentage (36.9%) and the 60th-most total rebounds (38.9). They can play big ball and hit the three, but the issue is getting both to click on the same night.

Also, the defense isn't nearly as good as what we're used to seeing from Self's bunch. The Jayhawks allow less than 70 points per game, but all four losses have seen Kansas allow a minimum of 75 points. The defense is the struggle for Kansas right now, but the Jayhawks are going nowhere in terms of still being a contender.

Inside the Stats – TCU Horned Frogs

  • PS/G: 67.7 (269th)
  • PA/G: 69.1 (148th)
  • Off Rtg: 100 (201st)
  • Def Rtg: 102 (245th)

Inside the Stats – Kansas Jayhawks

  • PS/G: 75.3 (103rd)
  • PA/G: 68.6 (138th)
  • Off Rtg: 107.3 (87th)
  • Def Rtg: 97.7 (157th)

Key Players to Watch

  • TCU - R.J. Nembhard (17.2 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 4.1 APG)
  • TCU - Mike Miles (13.4 PPG)
  • KU - Ochai Agbaji (14.5 PPG, 4.3 APG)
  • KU - Jalen Wilson (13.1 PPG, 7.1 RPG)

TCU-Kansas Predictions

With the split trends and the insanely high point spread, you can toss the ATS and O/U out the window. Even TCU's 5-9 ATS record is a bit worrisome to back with a large -14-point spread for the Jayhawks.

A double-digit win for Kansas is likely, but 14 is a lot of points to back for a team that is on a three-game losing streak. Kansas has only seen one team cross the 70 point mark in two straight games, and has failed to see either team touch 70 in three of its last four games.

TCU allowed 93 to Kansas earlier this month, and has lost three straight games by 18 points or more. The Horned Frogs have also failed to touch 50 points in two straight games. They also haven't played since Jan. 12, so as you can see this is quite the difficult game to decipher.

Taking Kansas to cover a large spread and the UNDER should see one of two bets hit minimum.

  • Score Prediction: Kansas 76 TCU 61
  • Best Bets: Kansas -14
  • Best Bets: UNDER

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