Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:47 AM

Minnesota vs. Purdue Predictions, Odds



  • January 30, 2021
  • By Thom Cunningham
  • VegasInsider.com

The Minnesota Golden Gophers take on the Purdue Boilermakers in a huge Big Ten game. Tip is set for 7:30 p.m. (ET) and will air on the Big Ten Network.

BETTING RESOURCES

WHERE TO BET MINNESOTA-PURDUE

Minnesota-Purdue Betting Odds

Line Movements

  • Spread: Purdue -3
  • Money-Line: Purdue -130 Minnesota +110
  • Total: 140.5

Odds Subject to Change

Purdue enters the game as the home favorite, given a -3-point spread. The Boilermakers have failed to cover 10 of 17 games this season, while Minnesota is 7-8-1 on the ATS.

The point total is set at 140.5, which the schools seem split on. Minnesota has gone UNDER in nine of 16 games, while Purdue is 9-8 on the O/U this year.

Betting Analysis – Minnesota Golden Gophers

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 11-5
  • ATS: 7-8-1
  • SU - Home: 11-1
  • SU - Away: 0-4
  • O/U: 7-9

Two names stand out for the Golden Gophers, Marcus Carr and Liam Robbins. The two juniors have carried Minnesota this season, although the play of Both Gach and Gabe Kalschuer can't be forgotten.

These four juniors, and senior Brandon Johnson, are one of the best kept secrets in college basketball. They're experienced, they're hungry, they have swag (which stems from coach Rich Pitino) and they score buckets.

Minnesota averages the 80th-most points per game, in a tough conference, while Carr averages just over 20 points a game. He also has 4.1 rebounds and 5.2 assists per game, as one may think Minnesota is too reliant on Carr. That's not the case, as the Golden Gophers are simply set in their assigned roles.

Carr handles the offense, Robbins handles the paint, while the other three and Jamal Mashburn Jr. fill in the gaps. This team sees seven players attempt a minimum of two three-pointers a game, with Carr and Kalschuer seeing the most.

Carr also sees a team-high 1.2 steals per game, while Robbins sees 2.6 blocks. These two are the team catalysts for their specific territory of the court, both on offense and defense.

This brings us to Robbins, who will have his hands full with one of the best post players in the Big Ten. Robbins (more than likely) will not overwhelm Trevion Williams, while Purdue also shoots the three-ball very well. Minnesota will have to rely on the role players to play help defense in the paint on Williams, and on the perimeter where Purdue likes to shoot.

In a nutshell, Carr and Robbins dictate the team's overall success but this game against Purdue will have to see all the Golden Gophers step up - particularly on defense.

Betting Analysis – Purdue Boilermakers

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 11-6
  • ATS: 7-8-2
  • SU - Home: 7-1
  • SU - Away: 4-5
  • O/U: 9-8

Purdue has been able to win most of its conference games with the play of Trevion Williams. He is the respected leader of this Purdue team and, as stated many times, the Boilermakers go as far as Williams carries them. He should win one-on-one against Minnesota's Robbins, but he should expect double teams.

If Minnesota doesn't double Williams, they will more than likely lose. So let's assume Pitino post-doubles Williams, that means Brandon Newman and Eric Hunter have to step up. Sasha Stefanovic is out of this game, which means Purdue is missing their best shooter.

Assuming Minnesota doubles Williams, knowing Sasha is out, Purdue will win or lose this game based on the ability to make jump shots. This is a game Purdue needs an 'unsung hero' to step up, may I suggest Jaden Ivey?

Ivey is a freshman rated 87th in the 2020 RSCI Top 100, and averages 7.6 points per game. He also just got chewed out by Williams during the Boilermakers last game, so if you're looking for a Boilermaker to either play well or hit a timely big shot, Ivey might be that guy. He has scored 12 or more points in three of his last four games.

Either way, Williams can only do so much - doubled or not. It will take a full Purdue effort to win without their top jump shooter, so expect a low-key Boilermaker to step up and push Purdue over the hill or watch the Boilermakers in a close game Williams keeps them in.


Inside the Stats – Minnesota Golden Gophers

  • PS/G: 76.9 (80th)
  • PA/G: 72.4 (228th)
  • Off Rtg: 105.2 (110th)
  • Def Rtg: 99 (180th)

Inside the Stats – Purdue Boilermakers

  • PS/G: 70.3 (216th)
  • PA/G: 66.9 (89th)
  • Off Rtg: 104.3 (128th)
  • Def Rtg: 99.2 (186th)

Key Players to Watch

  • MINN - Marcus Carr (20.9 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 5.2 APG)
  • MINN - Liam Robbins (13.3 PPG, 6.9 RPG)
  • PUR - Trevion Williams (15.3 PPG, 9.6 RPG)
  • PUR - Eric Hunter (10.3 PPG)

Minnesota-Purdue Predictions

Purdue should be able to cover the given -3-point spread at home, although the loss of Stefanovic will hurt Purdue. With the spread a bit weary, the point total is low enough to consider going OVER.

Purdue is allowing a little bit above 65 points per game, while Minnesota's defense is allowing just over 70 points per game. Assuming Purdue can touch 70, Minnesota should follow somewhere in the 60-point range.

If Purdue crosses 70 then they will go OVER. Although the Boilermakers are missing their top shooter, Minnesota is 0-4 on the road this year. Should the Golden Gophers take an early lead, a live bet for Purdue at plus-value may not be the worst idea.

  • Score Prediction: Purdue 74 Minnesota 68
  • Best Bets: OVER
  • Best Bets: Purdue SU

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